The goal of all fantasy owners is to draft the best player at each position – no kidding. The best players score the most fantasy points, and the team with the most fantasy points wins. It’s pretty simple.
But outside of ADP, expert projections, and gut feelings, how should owners approach drafting a player who is “the best?” What does that even really mean? Owners need to understand common statistical thresholds, averages, and minimums that “the best” players share so that they can adequately project, value, and contextualize players when drafting a team.
In last week’s article, we tackled the tight end position. This week, it’s all about the running backs, baby! If you’re anything like many other fantasy football players, including myself, RBs are your favorite position to draft. These guys are the bread and butter of your fantasy team.
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Most often, they are the cornerstone of your roster and the player around which you build the rest of your team. They almost always finish as the highest non-QB scorers and sometimes as the highest scorers at any position in general. In fact, the RB position is so crucial to fantasy football, that our Expert Consensus Rankings have four RBs slated to go as the first four players off the board in 2018 drafts.
In this article, we will answer the question, “What does it really take to be an RB1?” We went back five years to 2013 and compiled yearly and cumulative averages for all RB1s over that period in standard scoring leagues. We used carries, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs to determine the average statistics of an RB1 in a given year and cumulatively over the last five years. Minimum stat lines were acknowledged, as were outliers and significant trends. Using these numbers for reference, we can evaluate the likelihood that an RB will finish as an RB1 in 2018.
The Numbers
You can see the top-12 finishers last year and their statistics for the season below. Statistics are outlined as the following: Carries-Rushing Yards-Receptions-Receiving Yards-Total TDs. The average line for an RB1 in standard scoring leagues in 2017 was 250 carries, 1,083 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 444 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs (250-1,083-53-444-11).
- Todd Gurley 279-1,305-64-788-19
- Le’Veon Bell 321-1,291-85-655-11
- Kareem Hunt 272-1,327-53-455-11
- Alvin Kamara 120-728-81-826-13
- Melvin Gordon 284-1,105-58-476-12
- Mark Ingram 230-1,124-58-416-12
- LeSean McCoy 287-1,138-59-448-8
- Leonard Fournette 268-1,040-36-302-10
- Ezekiel Elliott 242-983-26-269-9
- Jordan Howard 276-1,122-23-125-9
- Carlos Hyde 240-938-59-350-8
- Dion Lewis 180-896-32-214-9
The scoring used in this article is for standard leagues, but RB statistics for PPR leagues have to be acknowledged as well. The top-12 PPR finishers from last season were all the same except for Dion Lewis and Jordan Howard, who were replaced by Duke Johnson and Christian McCaffrey. The same players almost always grace both lists, so you can see why a separate PPR article wasn’t necessary. As valuable as receptions are for RBs in PPR formats, the true value matters most among players with much lower ADPs and players who will not carry the ball 200 times. Receptions provide a safe floor, as in the case of Giovani Bernard and Theo Riddick, but those players will never finish as RB1s because of their limited opportunities.
Here are the top-12 RBs drafted based on ADP for 2018.
- Todd Gurley
- Le’Veon Bell
- Ezekiel Elliott
- David Johnson
- Alvin Kamara
- Saquon Barkley
- Kareem Hunt
- Leonard Fournette
- Melvin Gordon
- Dalvin Cook
- Devonta Freeman
- Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey has surprisingly risen to the RB12 spot in standard scoring leagues despite his carries and rushing yards last season and his reliance on the passing game. He has RB1 potential, but C.J. Anderson’s presence in the backfield caps McCaffrey’s rushing opportunities and limits him to a realistic finish inside the top 18, but not necessarily inside the top 12. Unlike in years past, I don’t see much bust potential from most of the players taken in the top 12, so in this article, I’ll only be talking about ones who I think don’t fit the RB1 mold for 2018.
Last year’s top 12 featured some familiar names in Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and LeSean McCoy. Ezekiel Elliott cracked this list, despite missing six games, further asserting his status as a perennial RB1. Three rookies made the list in Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette, and they can be expected to be staples on it for years to come. Dion Lewis made the list for the first time in his career by having a highly-efficient season and scoring nine times. The average number of total touches for an RB1 last season was 303, but Alvin Kamara and Dion Lewis both finished with under 200 rushes and 215 total touches — both of which are outliers.
Here are the totals from the remaining years and the five-year average:
- 2016: 264-1,215-44-380-12
- 2015: 226-979-42-362-9
- 2014: 259-1,219-48-394-11
- 2013: 265-1,193-48-408-11
- Five-year average (2013 – 2017): 253-1,138-47-398-11
The most recent season saw average carries, rushing yards, and total TDs that were very similar to the five-year average. The receptions and receiving yards were the highest of the last five seasons, and that shouldn’t be too surprising to fantasy owners. In today’s NFL, RBs have to possess pass-catching skills (even if in a limited capacity) to succeed. Guys like Le’Veon Bell have made their bones on being able to catch the ball out of the backfield, and more and more of the league’s best backs are honing their receiving skills. In fact, half of the RB1s listed above finished the season with at least 58 receptions.
The following are the bare minimum statistics of the last five years for each category we measured:
- Carries: 98, Danny Woodhead, 2015
- Rushing Yards: 336, Danny Woodhead, 2015
- Receptions: Seven, LeGarrette Blount, 2016
- Receiving yards: 38, LeGarrette Blount, 2016
- Total TDs: Five, LeSean McCoy, 2014
Finally, consider these facts before we jump into our projections. Of the 60 players who have finished as an RB1 over the last five seasons:
- Only six finished with less than 200 carries
- Only three had less than 800 rushing yards
- Only 10 had fewer than 30 receptions
- Only seven had fewer than 200 receiving yards
- Only eight had fewer than eight Total TDs
Here are seven RBs who have gotten some level of hype or debate among owners and experts this season and the RB1 potential that each possesses for 2018. Let’s go!
Devonta Freeman (ATL) ADP: RB11
I’m not going to mince words on this one. I am not projecting an RB1 season for Devonta Freeman in 2018. Honestly, I think he has bust written all over him, and I’m fading him hard. Freeman broke out in a big way in 2015, finishing as the overall RB1 in a crazy-productive season. That year, Freeman finished with 265 carries, 73 receptions, and 14 total TDs. Very impressive.
Freeman had a good 2016 season, but his totals regressed to 227 carries, 54 receptions, and 13 total TDs, and he played in one more game than he did in 2015. In 2017, Freeman’s totals came down even further, dwindling to 196 carries, 36 receptions, and eight total TDs. Although Freeman played in fewer games and was banged up in 2017, his per-game usage was still his lowest in three years as were his total TDs.
Conversely, teammate Tevin Coleman’s usage rate has crept up each of the last three seasons. In 2017, Freeman out-touched Coleman 16.6 times per game to 12.2 per game. That’s not a huge disparity, and both scored eight total TDs.
Freeman also had 14 carries inside the five-yard line, while Coleman got six such carries. Freeman is the clear numero uno back in Atlanta, but Tevin Coleman has slowly carved out a role and made himself part of a committee rather than just a change-of-pace back. Freeman will still put up decent fantasy points, but his RB11 ADP makes him one of the biggest bust candidates in 2018 and a far cry from an RB1 finish.
Jordan Howard (CHI) ADP: RB13
I’m sure you’ve read Mike Tagliere’s great article on Howard, but I’m a fan of the Bears back and wanted to include my two cents here anyway. He’s coming off of back-to-back seasons in which he averaged over 1,200 rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs. JoHo is often overlooked because frankly, he’s not sexy. He is a grinder between the tackles with minimal flash or pizzaz. Get this guy going with a head of steam though, and he’s hard to bring down.
Howard is not a great pass catcher out of the backfield, but he’s serviceable in that department. The Bears have relied on Howard to be their workhorse the last two years, and he has shown that he is more than capable of toting the rock 20+ times every week. Volume is his friend, and the opportunities will be plentiful. The Bears offense upgraded at WR, TE, and offensive line so the running lanes should be even more open to JoHo this season.
Mitch Trubisky is ready to take the training wheels off, and Howard should not face as many loaded boxes as he did in 2017. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Howard faced a defense of eight-plus defenders in the box on 43.12% of his rushes, the seventh highest in the league in 2017. Expect that number to come down in 2018 with the Chicago offense finally capable of spreading defenses. JoHo will get the many opportunities and TDs needed for an RB1 finish in 2018.
Derrick Henry (TEN) ADP: RB17
Take a look at this picture of Henry and Dion Lewis at practice. It’s pretty easy to tell just how big and strong an athlete Derrick Henry is, and that’s why you might call me crazy for taking such a pessimistic stance on him in 2018. His 2017 season ended with a final line of 176-744-5 rushing. That’s a respectable, if not exceptional, rushing average of 4.2 yards per carry. The problem with that line is that Henry had two monster TD runs in the final minutes of games that Tennessee was winning and trying to ice. He had TD runs of 72 yards in Week 6 and 75 yards in Week 13. Take those away, and his respectable rushing totals fall to 174-597. That’s a dreadful 3.4 yards per carry.
Henry is not much of a pass catcher either, totaling 11 receptions all season. Tennessee addressed that concern by bringing in a skilled pass-catching back, Dion Lewis. Lewis can run the ball effectively as well. In fact, Lewis finished the season with 289 yards rushing and three TDs over his final three games, chipping in an additional 77 yards receiving and two more scores. That’s 366 total yards and five total TDs in those games. Lewis finished as an RB1 in 2017, and he did so with his versatility and efficiency – two skills that Henry has not shown in the NFL. Tennessee thinks Lewis has a place in this offense, and he will take enough work from Henry to keep the latter out of the RB1 discussion in 2018.
Kenyan Drake (MIA) ADP: RB18
Just like Jimmy Graham (as detailed here), I’m having a tough time projecting Drake in 2018. As far as talent is concerned, Drake’s abilities don’t jump off the page. A career backup at Alabama who carried the ball only 233 times in four seasons, he was drafted in the third round of the 2016 draft and stayed third on the Miami depth chart until Jay Ajayi was traded to Philadelphia in Week 9. Even then, Drake played backup to Damien Williams until the latter was injured. Drake impressed in limited action at the end of 2017, but it’s hard to buy into the hype.
Miami’s offense is one of the worst in the league, the offensive line is ranked 23rd (with below-average run blocking), and the season’s first depth chart lists Frank Gore as co-starter with Drake. I don’t want to read too much into the depth chart, but coupled with the drafting of talented rookie Kalen Ballage; it is something to monitor. The addition of these two backs means that the coaching staff isn’t all that crazy about Drake. He could lose carries and goal-line work to Gore and potential passing work to Ballage. He’s not in the RB1 conversation this season because of his number of touches in this backfield and limited TD upside.
Alex Collins (BAL) ADP: RB19
Let’s face it. It’s been hard to trust the production of any RB in the Ravens offense since Ray Rice was last on the field. The team has employed a committee or hot-hand approach for years, except for Justin Forsett’s 2014 campaign, limiting the total number of touches for backs on this team. Kenneth Dixon was kept on the roster despite a suspension and an extensive injury history in his short career, and pass-catcher Javorius “Buck” Allen will still have a role in this offense.
Collins showed that if given the majority of RB reps, he can be a valuable fantasy asset. Over the last seven weeks of 2017, Collins averaged nearly 20 total touches per game, 86 total yards per game, and scored six total TDs. He ranked as the RB9 for those weeks. His touches in those games averaged out over a full season equate to 272 rushing attempts and 45 receptions, both well within the RB1 range of needed touches. It remains to be seen how much of a role the other backs in this offense have in 2018, but I believe Collins handles the majority of the work and has an even better year than he did in 2017.
The offense is rejuvenated with Michael Crabtree, Hayden Hurst, “Silly” Willie Snead, “The Abolitionist” John Brown, and the QB competition between Joe Flacco and newcomers Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III. This offense will open up more room for Collins, and the offensive line should improve now that guard Marshall Yanda has returned to camp after missing most of 2017 due to injury. It’s unlikely that Collins eclipses 300 total touches on the season, but a 250-touch, 1,200-total yard, and nine-total TD season is very attainable for the young back. He’s got serious RB1 upside.
Kerryon Johnson (DET) ADP: RB31
The “Wayward Son” Kerryon Johnson has been brought into Detroit to become more of the “prodigal son” that the Lions have been looking for in their backfield. The former Auburn star has had a very impressive camp so far, showing off his rushing and receiving talents. Early reports are that LeGarrette Blount will get goal-line work, so Johnson’s TD potential seems to be capped at the moment, although Johnson is much more versatile than Blount. Blount will get some scores, but Johnson will be the clear favorite for rushes on first and second down outside of the red zone and could still work his way into some goal line work.
Outside of Blount, Johnson has virtually no competition for carries, with Theo Riddick handling pass-catching duties and Ameer Abdullah all but banished from this offense after totaling under four yards per carry and under 40 rushing yards per game in his three seasons in the Motor City. At 6’0, 212 pounds, Johnson is a bigger back than both Abdullah (5’9, 203) and Riddick (5’9, 201) and will command the lion’s share (no pun intended) of carries. The Lions had not drafted an RB as high as Johnson (Round 2, Pick 44) since 2010 when they took Jahvid Best 30th. The Lions want to take this appalling run game in a different and more productive direction after not having a 100-yard rusher since Reggie Bush did it on Thanksgiving Day in 2013.
Johnson might be eased into action, rotating snaps with Blount and Riddick to begin the season, but the younger, more versatile, and more talented back will ultimately find himself atop the depth chart in Detroit. I predict a slow start and a hot finish, meaning fantasy owners will be drafting Kerryon Johnson early next season after a surging second half. Johnson isn’t an RB1 in 2018, but he will finish inside the position’s top 25.
Jamaal Williams (GB) ADP: RB36
Williams was probably the best bet for carries in this backfield, but I think the suspension of Aaron Jones cements Williams as the Packers’ starting RB. Although Ty Montgomery looks to be healthy, he showed last year that he wasn’t capable of carrying a full rushing load for the season. In his starts, he averaged a dreadful 3.2 yards per carry, but he was effective in the passing game, where he excels. Williams also has some talent in the pass-catching department and is a better pure rusher than Montgomery, so he will have the first crack at rushing duties and early-down work. Quietly, Williams had over 800 combined yards and six total TDs in 2017 making him a highly productive rookie.
Although Aaron Jones finished with nearly two yards per carry better than Williams last season, Williams’ receiving line of 25-262-2 easily trumped Jones’ 9-22-0 receiving line. Williams is a more talented and versatile back than both Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, and he doesn’t present the injury -risk of the former or the off-the-field issues of the latter. The number of touches needed for an RB1 finish will be available. He impressed in limited preseason action, catching Green Bay’s first TD of the season in Green Bay’s preseason Week 1 win over the Titans. I think Williams has the potential to be a league-winner in 2018.
His ADP makes him a steal right now, but he may get more expensive in drafts if he continues to do well in camp and preseason and as injuries accumulate for other players. He has serious RB1 potential in an explosive Aaron Rodgers offense, and the Packers are not far removed from Eddie Lacy’s dominance. He’ll make many Lambeau Leaps this year and seriously challenge for an RB1 finish.
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Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.