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FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 7

FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 7

This week’s FanDuel GPP lineup featured below features a quarterback/wide receiver stack against a defense that’s getting punched in the mouth by wideouts. The backfield will look familiar to those who read last week’s piece, and I’m going back to the well with the returning duo in favorable matchups. A stud wideout headlines that position group, a burner coming off of a big showing in primetime joins him, and a fourth wideout fills the flex. The flex play isn’t just any pick, though. It’s my most nauseating pick thus far this year, and I’m feeling a little queasy already thinking about rostering him. Tight end is filled with an ascending second-year pro, and the defense/special teams spot is filled with a bargain unit coming off of a bye that’s distanced itself from a disastrous Week 1 showing.

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Quarterback

Cam Newton (CAR): $8,200 at Eagles
Newton’s been consistently good to great thus far this year. He’s scored 18 plus FanDuel points in all five games this season, and he’s cleared 24 points three times, including in his last game. He’s passed for multiple touchdowns in four straight, and he’s bested 35 yards rushing in four of five with his season-low sitting at a still-respectable 29 yards. He’s also punched in three rushing touchdowns. After setting a career high with 8.7 rushes per game last year, he’s besting that this year with 9.0 attempts per game, per Pro-Football-Reference. Newton’s ability to do damage with his legs elevates both his floor and ceiling, with the latter obviously being more important in GPPs. Quietly, Newton’s completing a career-high 65.9% of his passes, and his 2.4% INT% is his second-lowest mark behind only his MVP 2015 campaign. The Eagles are a middle of the road matchup in regards to FanDuel points allowed, and they’re only a pinch tougher than that when looking at their rank in pass defense (10th) at Football Outsiders (FO).

Running Back

Todd Gurley (LAR): $10,200 at 49ers
Gurley’s fresh off of smacking the Broncos around for 208 yards rushing with two touchdowns while adding two receptions for 17 yards. According to Lineups, he was tied for the NFL lead in red zone touches among running backs with six. As you can see here, he leads the way at running back with 43 red zone touches on the year. He’s 11 red zone touches clear of the next closest back (Alvin Kamara), and he has one more red zone touch than the duo tied for third combined! He’s parlayed his crazy red zone usage into an NFL-high 11 rushing and receiving touchdowns combined (all scored in the red zone). The stud back isn’t just a touchdown-scoring machine, he’s also leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage (870) by 59 yards, and he’s averaging a healthy 3.5 receptions per game. The game-script proof back can always be fired up regardless of the spread, but it certainly doesn’t hurt his fantasy outlook this week that the Rams are 10-point favorites with a team over/under total of 30.5 points, per Pinnacle. Even with his gaudy salary, Gurley’s not priced off of my GPP rosters.

Tarik Cohen (CHI): $6,600 vs. Patriots
Cohen blew up before Chicago’s Week 5 bye, erupting for 174 yards from scrimmage on 13 carries and seven receptions with one touchdown. He came out of the bye week and posted another big line, too, totaling 31 yards rushing and a touchdown with seven grabs for 90 yards. The second-year playmaker has bested 65 yards from scrimmage in three straight and reached triple-digit yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games, and he has another matchup in which he can eat. FO ranks the Patriots 13th in run defense and 16th defending backs as receivers. Once again, Cohen looks like Chicago’s best back to rely on against a New England defense that’s tied for the 10th most receptions (38) allowed to running backs and fifth most receiving yards (344) surrendered to them. The Patriots have also coughed up a pair of receiving scores to backs. There’s also a decent chance the Bears will find themselves playing from behind as three-point underdogs, furthering the case for Cohen — the far superior receiving back — to be on the field if things play out that way.

Wide Receiver

Adam Thielen (MIN): $8,700 at Jets
Thielen’s reached triple-digit receiving yardage in all six games this year, and he’s caught six or more passes in every game. He’s also scored three touchdowns. In short, he’s been a certifiable stud. In three-receiver sets, Thielen projects to draw Parry Nickerson in the slot, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). To call that a dreamy matchup would be understating it. PFF ranks Nickerson dead last in overall grade out of 111 corners, and they rank him just one spot out of the basement in coverage. If you’re picking this week to fade Thielen, you’re doing it wrong.

Devin Funchess (CAR): $6,400 at Eagles
Funchess is Newton’s stack partner, and the return of Greg Olsen last week failed to prevent the big wideout from producing. The fourth-year pro turned in a 5-74-1 line at Washington. He’s bested 50 yards receiving in four straight and caught at least four passes in each of those games. Now, he draws a Philadelphia defense that’s permitted the seventh most FanDuel points per game to receivers, per Pro-Football-Reference. The visiting Panthers are five-point underdogs, so game script should work in Funchess’ favor if things go according to the betting spread.

Marquise Goodwin (SF): $5,500 vs. Rams
Speaking of betting spreads favoring a wideout’s outlook, that can be emphasized even more for Goodwin. The 49ers are 10-point underdogs to the high-flying offense of the Rams. The visiting Rams are tied for the eighth most 20-plus yard receptions and tied for the most 40-plus yard receptions ceded this year, according to NFL.com. Their struggles with big plays in the passing game plays right into the hands of Goodwin. The world-class speedster roasted the Packers for a 4-126-2 line in primetime. The impressive showing for all NFL fans to view in the Monday Night Football game last week should serve to bump up Goodwin’s ownership rate at his affordable price tag. Still, I’ll gladly eat the chalk for the helpful salary relief and high ceiling Goodwin offers.

Tight End

David Njoku (CLE): $5,700 at Buccaneers
FO ranks the Buccaneers in the basement defending the pass, and they also rank them 29th defending tight ends. No team has coughed up more FanDuel points per game to the position than the Bucs. It can’t get much easier for Njoku than facing Tampa Bay’s defense. The second-year tight end is more than merely a matchup play, too. Last week, he set new career highs in targets (12) and receptions (seven) while totaling 55 yards and a touchdown. He’s reached double-digit targets in back-to-back games, and he’s caught at least five passes while surpassing 50 yards receiving in all three of Baker Mayfield‘s starts. Njoku’s stock is way up, and he should easily be the chalk at tight end this week.

Flex

Kelvin Benjamin (BUF): $4,800 at Colts
Benjamin has caught only 10 passes all year. His 10-146-1 season line looks like a standard week for Thielen this year (I’m only slightly exaggerating). He’s been a total dud this year, and he didn’t do a hell of a lot in his six games with the Bills last year. You’d think a guy who’s posting Benjamin’s ugly season line would want to do anything to improve it, right? Well, maybe not. There’s a ton to dislike with Benjamin. However, there’s got to be something to like if I’m giving him the nod on this roster. There is. Derek Anderson will start for the Bills this week in place of injured rookie Josh Allen. Remarkably, the journeyman veteran could actually be an upgrade for the passing attack over the overwhelmed rookie signal caller. It’s likely the playbook is scaled back for Anderson since he signed last week. The veteran hasn’t had much time to build rapport with Buffalo’s pathetic group of pass catchers, but he should already have some rapport with Benjamin from playing with him in Carolina. I suppose you’re probably wondering how Benjamin fared when Anderson played for the Panthers. The answer is that he fared well. Anderson started twice against the Bucs in 2014, and Benjamin posted lines of 6-92-1 and 8-104-0 in those two starts. In a 2016 start against the Bucs, Anderson targeted Benjamin nine times, and the wideout hauled in five passes for 70 yards. It’s important to take Benjamin’s work with Anderson with a grain of salt since it came a few years ago. That said, at least the two have demonstrated the ability to play well together, and Benjamin doesn’t have to do much to hit value at just $300 above the minimum salary for a receiver. Game script should also work in Benjamin’s favor with the Bills serving as 7.5-point underdogs in Indianapolis this weekend.

Defense/Special Teams

Saints (NO): $3,600 at Ravens
The Saints defense was throttled in the season opener against the Buccaneers, and they also struggled against Atlanta’s high-powered offense in Week 3. While those poor showings aren’t completely forgivable, they did come against a couple of offenses that can hang points in bunches. More importantly, they’ve done well in their other three contests. In Week 2, they held the Browns to 18 points and just 327 yards of total offense. In their two weeks leading into the Week 6 bye, they held both the Giants and Redskins under 300 total yards of offense while forcing four turnovers. They’ll be fresh off of the bye with extra time to prepare for the Ravens. Baltimore’s offense is solid but not terrifying ranking 12th in scoring offense at 25.5 points per game. I’m not expecting a huge effort from the Saints D/ST, but they should do plenty to hit value on their small salary.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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