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This is the second article of a three-part series examining meaningful splits for players based on other players being in or out of the lineup.  This article will focus on player splits with a running back teammate in and out of the lineup. As promised in the last article, I will discuss Melvin Gordon at some length. His absence from the lineup had an effect on pretty much everyone besides Philip Rivers.

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Exclusion Player: Melvin Gordon

Splits Player(s): Austin Ekeler

 
Austin Ekeler saw a ton of extra work with Melvin Gordon out of the lineup. It just didn’t amount to any extra fantasy points. Granted, the defenses faced were tougher in games without Melvin Gordon. The average opponent defense vs. running backs with Gordon in the lineup was atrocious and without him it was just slightly above average. Ekeler saw his rush attempts go from 6 per game to 13.3 per game with Gordon out of the lineup. His targets went from 3.0 to 6.7. However, his efficiency fell off a cliff. His yards per rush attempt dropped from 6.5 to 3.2 without Gordon and his yards per reception fell from 12.0 to 6.3. Putting all of this together leads to his yards per game decreasing by 1 from 69 to 68 after losing Melvin Gordon. Some of this was probably do to the tougher schedule, but a lot of it was due to the reduction in efficiency we often see when a back seeing limited touches is thrust into a starting role. Ekeler is better suited for a complementary role and Gordon being out of the lineup shouldn’t have a drastic effect. I expect Justin Jackson to have a very big role in 2019 if Melvin Gordon doesn’t play.

Exclusion Player: Melvin Gordon

Splits Player(s): Keenan Allen

 
Melvin Gordon has been a target hog through his career. In the last three seasons, Gordon has averaged 5.1 targets per game. In 2018, Philip Rivers threw the ball 0.7 more times per game without Gordon in the lineup. In 2016, this number increased by 1.9 pass attempts per game (they both played in every game in 2017). We are looking at an extra six to seven targets per game when Gordon is out. Ekeler soaked up 3.7 of those extra targets when playing without Gordon. The leftovers were split up among Keenan Allen and our next splits player Mike Williams. Keenan Allen saw an extra 2.0 targets, 24 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. His increase from 13.2 fantasy points per game with Gordon in the lineup to 17.9 fantasy points per game without would have moved him from overall WR19 to overall WR3 in 2018 Half-PPR points per game. Keenan Allen‘s fantasy season will likely take a drastically different course depending on Melvin Gordon‘s status.

Exclusion Player: Melvin Gordon

Splits Player(s): Mike Williams

 
Mike Williams also got a sizeable chunk of the targets with Gordon out of the lineup. On a per-game basis, Williams saw an additional 1.5 targets, 21 receiving yards and 0.2 touchdowns with Gordon inactive. Mike Williams is a monster on the field and is one of the best jump ball receivers in the league. If he can get to 100 targets on the season he should be squarely in the WR2 range with the touchdown upside to be a back end WR1.

Hunter Henry is coming back from a lost season in 2018 and he will likely inherit more than the 66 targets that Virgil Green and relic Antonio Gates totaled. I project the tight end group as a whole to have somewhere between 85 and 110 targets on the season (most going to Henry). This will take a big chunk of the targets that Tyrell Williams left behind. With all of the mouths to feed in LA right now, it might be tough for Mike Williams to get to 100 targets with Gordon in the lineup. Strangely, it seems that the Chargers’ wide receivers will be affected more than Austin Ekeler by the outcome of the Melvin Gordon drama.

Exclusion Player: Kareem Hunt

Splits Player(s): Tyreek Hill

 
Tyreek Hill took another giant step forward in 2018. He finished with 1,479 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns on 137 targets. With that said, Hill did slow down at the end of the season, as he had Half-PPR fantasy scores of 5.5, 18.5, 6.4 and 11.1 in Weeks 13 through 16. That’s not really what you were hoping for in crunch time with a guy averaging 19.7 fantasy points per game in Weeks 1 through 12. He then went on to put up a meaningless 26.1 fantasy points in Week 17.

One noticeable thing that happened after Week 11 was the loss of Kareem Hunt. Hill averaged the same targets and yards per reception with Hunt in or out, but his receiving percentage dropped from 69 to 51 without Hunt in the lineup. Hill also scored 11 receiving touchdowns in the first 11 games, while scoring one in the final five games.

I don’t expect Tyreek Hill to fall all the way to 13.5 fantasy points per game as he did in the final five games of last season. I also don’t expect him to put up the 17.8 fantasy points per game he did over the full 2018 season. Hill should end up somewhere in the 15-16 fantasy points per game range. Tyreek’s boom/bust style is perfect for best ball drafts. I will gladly take him with the 12th pick and pair him with a running back. For re-draft leagues I would wait until the 16th pick at the very earliest to take him.

Exclusion Player: Sony Michel

Splits Player(s): James White

 
James White enjoyed a career year in 2018. He finished the season with 181 touches, 1,176 total yards and 12 total touchdowns.  Part of this was due to Rob Gronkowski looking like a shell of his former self. Part of it is due to the Patriots trusting White with more work each and every season. But a little part of it was also due to a major bump that White saw in the three games Michel sat out.

White saw his carries jump from 5.3 to 8.3 without Michel (though his efficiency dipped so much, he actually averaged less rushing yards per game). White also saw his targets increase from 7.2 to 9.7 without Michel. The biggest difference was the touchdowns. White was used more in the red zone with Michel out. White compiled four touchdowns in these three games without Michel, while he had eight touchdowns in 13 games with Michel.

Now with Damien Harris in the picture, I find it unlikely that White gets these extra red-zone looks should Michel get injured. White finished as the RB10 in Half-PPR points per game last season. If you use his splits with Sony Michel active, he still would have finished as the RB17. Even with some negative touchdown regression, James White still has a floor around RB24. He is currently being drafted as the RB27 and 65 overall in ADP. While I don’t expect him to repeat his 2018 campaign, James White is a great value in the 5th round of Half-PPR drafts.

Exclusion Player: Rashaad Penny

Splits Player(s): Chris Carson

 
Chris Carson beat out the first-round draft pick Rashaad Penny in 2018 to earn the lion’s share of work, but Penny was still a thorn in his side all season. Penny averaged seven carries per game in 2018 and should receive more work in 2019. Carson had astonishing splits with Penny in and out of the lineup. Carson’s rushing attempts jumped from 15.3 to 23.3 without Penny. Carson also scored four touchdowns in four games without Penny, while he scored five touchdowns in ten games with Penny.

The wildcard here is what will happen with Mike Davis‘ 145 touches from last season. In 2018 the Seahawk’s running backs carried the ball an average of 27.75 times per game. If we get the same number of rushing attempts per game in 2019, we should expect Carson and Penny to take about 25-26 of these attempts per game if both stay healthy. Carson should see around 17 rushing attempts per game and Penny should see eight to nine. This number of carries is much closer to Carson’s splits with Rashaad Penny than without.

The last consideration is the 39 targets that Mike Davis saw in 2018. Carson saw 24 targets in 2018, while Penny saw 10. So this means Carson saw 70.6 percent of the targets between himself and Penny. Multiply this 0.706 by 39 targets (from Mike Davis) gives you 27.5 targets. This plus the 24 targets Carson had in 2018 would project Carson at 51.5 targets for 2019. OC Brian Schottenheimer recently said they want Chris Carson‘s targets to be in the 50 range. Because of the extra work in the passing game, Carson should again finish as a back-end RB1 or top-end RB2 in 2019. He is currently a great price at RB23 and overall 47 ADP.

Exclusion Player: Phillip Lindsay

Splits Player(s): Royce Freeman

 
I won’t spend much time on this since Freeman only played one game without Phillip Lindsay. The important thing to focus on here is the increase in volume Freeman saw with Lindsay out of the lineup. He went from 8.7 rushing attempts per game up to 17.0 with Lindsay out. His targets increased from 0.8 to 10 without Lindsay.

It’s possible that Freeman steals some work from Lindsay this season, but don’t expect Freeman to be someone you want to start in fantasy football unless Lindsay goes down. Freeman is really more of a handcuff play, but one of the better ones in the league. If Lindsay were to go down, Freeman immediately becomes an RB2 while carrying the major bulk of the workload. Freeman is currently going as RB37 and overall 101 ADP. You can usually get him in the 9th or 10th round. I am comfortable taking him here as long as my starting positions for running back are filled and I am looking for some upside in the mid-late rounds.

Next time, we will take a look at player splits with a wide receiver teammate in or out of the lineup. See what to expect from the Rams if we can get a healthy Cooper Kupp for a full season.

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Steven Roy is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Steven, follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.