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Week 12 Running Back Snap Count Analysis (2019 Fantasy Football)

Week 12 Running Back Snap Count Analysis (2019 Fantasy Football)

This week, a half-dozen backfields are thrown under the microscope for Week 12 snap count analysis with an eye toward what it means going forward.

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Colts last week at Texans, this week vs. Titans

Player Snaps (Percentage of offensive snaps)
Jonathan Williams 45 (67%)
Nyheim Hines 22 (33%)
Jordan Wilkins 1 (1%)

Marlon Mack was out last week, he’s out this week, and he has an indefinite timetable for his return. Last week, the Colts clearly demonstrated how they’ll use their backfield sans Mack in a close game. Williams dominated the backfield in carries with 26 for 104 rushing yards and a score, and he even added three receptions for 17 receiving yards. He’s an RB2 in an AFC South showdown with the Titans that projects to be close.

Hines carried the ball nine times for 51 rushing yards, and he reeled in two of three targets for 10 receiving yards. Perhaps the electric second-year back can see some extra touches in games when the Colts fall into a negative game script, but he’s not a startable option and is basically only rosterable in 14-team point-per-reception (PPR) formats or larger. Wilkins has been Wally Pipped by Williams and isn’t rosterable.

Lions last week at Redskins, this week vs. Bears (Thanksgiving)

Player Snaps (Percentage of offensive snaps)
Bo Scarbrough 38 (51%)
Ty Johnson 27 (36%)
J.D. McKissic 11 (15%)

Scarbrough was the clear lead back for the Lions for the second week in a row. He bumped his carries up to 18 last week, and he turned those carries into 98 rushing yards. Scarbrough wasn’t able to find the end zone again, and he lost a fumble. Furthermore, he was once against blanked in the receiving game. Having said that, he projects to be in another close game with the BettingPros consensus line having the Lions getting three points against the visiting Bears. In close games where the Lions are able to maintain balance and avoid airing it out to play catch up, Scarbrough should tote the rock regularly. He’s a low-end RB2 or flex this week. Johnson continues to do nothing of note, and McKissic touched the ball only three times (one rush and two receptions on two targets) for 20 yards from scrimmage last week.

Seahawks last week at Eagles, this week vs. Vikings

Player Snaps (Percentage of offensive snaps)
Chris Carson 35 (54%)
Rashaad Penny 30 (46%)

Bellcow Carson might be a thing of the past. His percentage of offensive snaps was south of 68% for the first time since Week 3 in last week’s victory. He fumbled again, but he avoided losing it. Carson rushed eight times for only 26 rushing yards, and he caught all four of his targets for 31 receiving yards. He was thoroughly outshined by Penny.

The second-year back rushed 14 times for 129 rushing yards and a touchdown, but he was targeted only one time. We’ve seen this before and watched the Seahawks go back to Carson as a bellcow, so perhaps this turns out to be a blip on the radar. Perhaps they award more touches to Penny, though, and the usage uncertainty is troubling for gamers who’ve ridden Carson as their RB2 thus far this year. Of note, Penny was the last back to carry the ball for the Seahawks on their final drive. He should be universally rostered, but his role uncertainty makes him only an emergency RB2 or a dicey flex. Carson’s still a bit more desirable, but he’s not a “safe” play.

Eagles last week vs. Seahawks, this week at Dolphins

Player Snaps (Percentage of offensive snaps)
Miles Sanders 64 (84%)
Jay Ajayi 9 (12%)

Sanders dominated the backfield reps for the Eagles last week. He carried the ball 12 times for 63 rushing yards, and he hauled in three of five targets for 23 receiving yards. Ajayi wasn’t targeted a single time, and he carried the ball six times for 16 rushing yards. Jordan Howard was inactive after being a limited practice participant all last week, Howard still hasn’t been cleared for contact, putting his status for this week in doubt.

Philadelphia managed only nine points last week, so the red zone opportunities were limited. On that note, Ajayi received one red zone touch, and Sanders didn’t touch the ball in the red zone, according to Lineups. The Eagles are sizable nine-point favorites in Miami this week, according to the BettingPros consensus. If Howard’s out again this week, Ajayi has some emergency streamer appeal due to the potential for him getting blowout carries to salt the game away. Sanders is the best fantasy option in the backfield, and he’s in the RB2 mix.

Dolphins last week at Browns, this week vs. Eagles

Player Snaps (Percentage of offensive snaps)
Kalen Ballage 24 (38%)
Patrick Laird 23 (37%)
Myles Gaskin 16 (25%)

I’ve had favorable things to say about Laird in back-to-back weeks, and after flashing in garbage time against the Bills in Week 10, he carried the ball three times for 20 rushing yards and dropped his only target. Yuck. The best thing to say about Laird is that he provided entertaining chatter on Twitter last Saturday among the fantasy football community. Despite the bad showing, playing 37% of the team’s offensive snaps was a new high for him, and his 20 rushing yards led the backfield.

Ballage — finally — saw his playing time plummet, but instead of the reduced playing time for Ballage all going to Laird, Gaskin soaked up some extra snaps. Ballage rushed seven times for 13 yards and caught his only target for 13 receiving yards. Gaskin rushed four times for 10 rushing yards and caught his only target for seven receiving yards. Miami’s backfield is a roaring tire fire that’s a fantasy wasteland. It’s best to avoid all parties, but I’m ashamed to admit that I’m still moderately intrigued by Laird. I think that his pass-catching skills will help him put together a top-25 running back scoring week in PPR formats in at least one of Miami’s games in Week 13 through Week 16.

Steelers last week at Bengals, this week vs. Browns

Player Snaps (Percentage of offensive snaps)
Benny Snell 36 (49%)
Jaylen Samuels 22 (30%)
Trey Edmunds 12 (16%)
Kerrith Whyte 7 (9%)

James Conner was out last week after aggravating his AC joint injury in Week 11. Conner’s status for this week is unclear. Snell returned from injury last week, and he carried the rock 21 times for 98 rushing yards and caught his only target for five yards. His 21 carries were more than double the total posted by the other backs in the table. In other words, the snap percentage doesn’t tell the whole story, as Snell was clearly the feature runner.

Samuels retained a pass-catching role in the offense, reeling in all three of his targets for 26 receiving yards and adding a couple of rushes for six yards. Combing through the play-by-play data at Pro-Football-Reference reveals only one of Samuels’ three receptions was on a pass from Devlin Hodges. Hodges relieved Rudolph, and he’ll start this week.

Whyte rushed six times for 43 rushing yards, which makes for an eye-catching 6.14 yards per carry. He wasn’t targeted, though, and he played under 10% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps, so he’s not a fantasy option despite helping the Steelers avoid an embarrassing loss to the winless Bengals. Snell isn’t an exciting or flashy option, but he’s a low-end RB2 or flex if Conner is out again. Samuels is no longer even a flex option in PPR formats with Snell back.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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