Kyle Yates’ Week 9 Fantasy Projections (2020 Fantasy Football)

In case you haven’t noticed, we’re an extremely divided nation. Everyone has their own opinion on what is right and wrong and it’s very rare that you find someone who will change course and switch to the other side…

What? Oh, no, I’m not talking about the 2020 Presidential Election. I’m talking about when people believe it’s the proper time to start listening to Christmas music and putting up the Christmas tree! Depending on who you ask, you might get twenty different answers on when it’s appropriate to turn on the Michael Bublé Christmas album in your house or when it’s the right time to dig that old, fake Christmas tree out of the basement.

And that’s not even talking about the fake/real Christmas tree debate…

Normally, I’d say that I want to wait a little bit and get closer to Thanksgiving before I put up the Christmas tree in our house and start blasting music throughout the house, but this is not a normal year. In my opinion, all bets are off this year and you can do whatever brings you joy. Does that look like putting the tree up the day after Halloween? I know there are plenty of people who did that this year. (No judgement here!)

Despite all the differences in opinion out there on Christmas music, if you’re reading this article you probably have the same opinion as everyone else here; you love football. There are some great games on this weekend’s slate, but ones that also come with a lot of uncertainty right now due to positive Covid-19 tests.

Below, you’ll find my projections for every single game and notes on every single fantasy relevant player. As a reminder, these projections are not meant to try and throw a dart blindly at the board and hope that it hits the bullseye. These projections are meant to provide the most likely outcome by analyzing the matchups, studying the Vegas implied point totals, and bringing in the projected game script. If you’re looking for how these projections feed into my weekly rankings, you can find that here!

I’ve mentioned it before, but projections take into account the most likely outcome, while rankings adjust for probabilities. For example, Mike Williams should have a great game from a projections standpoint this week, but his inconsistency this season bumps him down my weekly rankings to account for the possibility that he might not reach those projections.

HOU at JAC | NYG at WAS | BAL at IND | DET at MIN | CHI at TEN | CAR at KC | SEA at BUF | DEN at ATL | LVR at LAC | MIA at ARI | PIT at DAL | NO at TB | NE at NYJ

All in all, my hope is that this is a useful tool for you to work through your thoughts as you set your lineups for this weekend!

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Date/Time: November 8, 1:00pm ET
Spread: Texans -6.5
Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Texans 28.5, Jaguars 22

Houston Texans

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Jacksonville Jaguars

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Quarterback

Houston: Watson still has all of his receivers in town after the NFL trade deadline and he has an excellent matchup in front of him this week. Over his last three games, Watson has gotten back on track for fantasy purposes and has finished as the QB6, QB1, and QB9 in that time frame. He can be started as a top-5 option this week against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville: The Jaguars appear to be set on rolling out Jake Luton in place of the injured Gardner Minshew this week. Even though it’s against a fine matchup, Luton is not on the redraft radar.

Running Backs

Houston: David Johnson continues to receive enough work to be viewed as a solid and safe low-end RB2. While he’s not doing much with his opportunity – he’s averaged exactly 3.0 YPC the past two games – he’s still getting the volume that gives fantasy managers confidence to start him this week. Duke Johnson is nothing more than a bye week fill-in option with David Johnson dominating the touches in this backfield. He can be viewed as a low-end RB3 against Jacksonville.

Jacksonville: If you’re looking for a smash play this week, look no further than Robinson. While the QB change certainly hurts the overall offense, Robinson is simply going to see too much work in this one to not be viewed as a low-end RB1. Once you factor in the matchup, Robinson creeps up into top-5 consideration this week. The Jaguars should lean on him heavily and the Texans are currently the third easiest matchup for opposing RBs. He’s an automatic start this week.

Wide Receivers

Houston: All three receivers are still here in Houston and they all should put together decent performances here against Jacksonville. Cooks has settled into this offense nicely and has a fine matchup against CJ Henderson. Cooks should be able to get open regularly and he can be plugged into your fantasy lineup as a mid-range WR2 with upside this week. Fuller seemed to be expecting a trade at the deadline this week, but he’ll be in Houston for the remainder of the season. With that being the case, Fuller should continue to be plugged into your starting lineup as a solid WR2 with upside in this matchup. Fuller will draw coverage from Sidney Jones, who has been performing well this year, but all it takes is one big play for Fuller to win you your week. Start him with confidence this week. Cobb hasn’t exactly been soaking up targets this season, but he’s playing a crucial role in this offense. He’s seeing just enough work to be viewed as a FLEX option in Full PPR leagues that does have the potential of finding the end zone in this matchup. Cobb should draw coverage from Tre Herndon, which the Texans could choose to exploit over and over again. If you’re in a pinch and need a WR option, Cobb’s potentially still on your waiver wire.

Jacksonville: With the QB switch, every Jaguars receiver gets a downgrade in this matchup. Chark can still be plugged into your lineup as a boom-or-bust low-end WR2. Laviska has a great CB matchup against Vernon Hargreaves, but he can’t be trusted as anything more than a FLEX play with the way he’s been performing recently. Cole will draw coverage from Eric Murray in the slot, which should be a favorable matchup for Cole, but the uncertainty with Luton at QB drops Cole to a desperation FLEX play.

Tight Ends

Houston: With Jordan Akins appearing to be on track to play in this game, neither of these TEs are able to trusted for fantasy purposes.

Jacksonville: None of the Jaguars TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Chark’s projections here are a bit aggressive with Luton starting at QB, but the ball has to go somewhere, right? Unfortunately, if Luton locks onto another receiver, it’s going to be hard to see how Chark sees the target totals that would lead to that production.

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New York Giants vs Washington Football Team

Date/Time: November 8, 1:00pm ET
Spread: Washington -2.5
Over/Under: 42.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Washington 22.5, Giants 20

New York Giants

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Washington Football Team

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Quarterback

New York: Jones struggled, as expected, against a stout Buccaneers defense in week eight. He’s the QB26 on the season and he shouldn’t be considered this week against the Washington defense.

Washington: Allen’s been keeping this team competitive recently, but he’s still not someone that you can rely on for fantasy purposes. He’s a low-end QB2 this week.

Running Backs

New York: Freeman returned to practice on Thursday, which makes it likely that he will suit up for this game against Washington. If he does, Freeman should be plugged into your lineup as a low-end RB2 that should see plenty of volume. With the way the RB landscape is right now, Freeman belongs in your lineup with the amount of touches he’s going to see here.

Washington: Gibson got the majority of the workload for Washington two weeks ago and he should continue to be the featured option in this backfield moving forward. If that’s the case, Gibson absolutely belongs in your starting lineup against the Giants. He should be viewed as a mid-range RB2 with upside. McKissic took a bit of a backseat to Gibson – and even Peyton Barber – in week seven, but Washington was playing with a significant lead against Dallas. It’s unlikely that Washington plays with a lead like that regularly, which means that McKissic should be more involved in future games as the pass-catching back. However, this shouldn’t be one of those games. With that in mind, McKissic should be viewed as a low-end RB3 in this matchup.

Wide Receivers

New York: Shepard continues to soak up targets from Daniel Jones in this offense. As long as he continues to see that large target share, Shepard can be rolled out as a safe WR3 every single week with upside if he can find the end zone. Slayton was targeted heavily in week eight and could have had a monstrous game, but Jones missed connecting with him deep downfield multiple times. The Washington secondary has been extremely stingy in allowing fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, which limits Slayton’s overall ceiling. However, he’s still worth firing up as a WR3 with upside.

Washington: McLaurin continues to be a consistent option for your fantasy football lineup with upside every single week. While McLaurin has to line up across from James Bradberry in this matchup, which could limit his overall ceiling, we know that McLaurin can succeed even in tough matchups. Plug him into your lineup as a high-end WR2 this week.

Tight Ends

New York: Engram continues to be heavily targeted in this offense, which bumps up his overall floor. At the TE position right now, it’s important to look at target share and plug in the players who are being utilized in their respective offenses. Engram continues to be inefficient with his opportunity, but he’s worth rolling out as a low-end TE1 this week against Washington.

Washington: Thomas found the end zone the last time that Washington played and there’s a very good chance that we see him cross the goal line again in this one. He’s a streaming tight end still, but this is a matchup worth plugging him into your lineup in.

FantasyProjection Buster: Engram should see plenty of targets in this game, but he’s been incredibly inefficient with his opportunity so far this season. He could fall drastically short of my projection totals for him.

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Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts

Date/Time: November 8, 1:00pm ET
Spread: Ravens -1.5
Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Ravens 24.75, Colts 23.25

Baltimore Ravens

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Indianapolis Colts

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Quarterback

Baltimore: Jackson has failed to live up to expectations so far this season. Even before last week’s poor performance, Jackson was the QB14 on the season. With the way he’s struggling as a passer, plus the fact that he’s not running as much this year, Jackson should no longer be viewed as a must-start option. He’s still an incredibly valuable fantasy QB and can certainly get back to being a top-tier option, but he’s simply not delivering the week-winning performances that you expected when you drafted him in the early part of your draft. In a tough matchup against the Colts defense, Jackson should be viewed more as a low-end QB1 than a guaranteed starter.

Indianapolis: Rivers was able to put up a solid fantasy day last week, but he shouldn’t be considered for fantasy football against a stout Ravens defense.

Running Backs

Baltimore: With Mark Ingram out of the picture, both Edwards and Dobbins were able to put up solid fantasy performances. Edwards was able to find the end zone and he should be put in plenty of those opportunities again this week. He can be viewed as a high-end RB3. Dobbins averaged a ridiculous 7.5 YPC on 15 opportunities last week against a stout Steelers run defense. He’s an incredibly talented RB and he may have carved out a significant role for himself in this offense, even when Ingram comes back into the lineup. Against the Colts, Dobbins can be started as a low-end RB2 yet again.

Indianapolis: Are we ready to panic on JT yet? The Colts have an incredibly talented RB on their roster, but yet they refuse to feature him or let him get into a groove before they rotate in another back. Coming off of their bye, optimism on JT was sky high and everything pointed to him having a monstrous performance against the Lions run defense. However, JT was barely used and saw Jordan Wilkins and Hines both have great days. With this coaching staff, and the way they’re utilizing JT, it’s hard to trust him as a locked-in RB1 anymore. Against Baltimore, JT should be viewed more as a mid-range RB2 that will need to see a ton of work on the ground to hold fantasy value this week.

Wide Receivers

Baltimore: Brown only reeled in one catch last week, but thankfully it was for a score. Brown continues to have a dramatic range of outcomes every single week and he can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR3. Against the Colts pass defense, Brown could struggle yet again.

Indianapolis: Right now, it’s hard to trust any of the Colts receivers. Rivers completed passes to 11 different players last week, which makes it very difficult to pinpoint which one to play in fantasy football. Against the Ravens secondary, it might be best to avoid all Colts receivers if you can. Even if Hilton plays, it’s not worth putting him in your starting lineup.

Tight Ends

Baltimore: Andrews comes with a sky-high ceiling every single week, but with Jackson struggling as a passer, Andrews simply hasn’t been as dominant this season. He’s still worth starting every single week, but he comes with a very low floor. Andrews should be viewed as a mid-range TE1 this week against Indianapolis.

Indianapolis: Burton was able to find the end zone again last week, but he did it as a runner. Otherwise, Burton simply didn’t see enough volume to inspire confidence in starting him against the Ravens defense. Burton’s a high-end TE2 this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: Andrews has been a frustrating player to roster recently with the way that Jackson’s been playing. With the matchup in mind, my projections for Andrews are pretty conservative, but he absolutely has the talent to find the end zone and blow my projections out of the water.

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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Date/Time: November 8, 1:00pm ET
Spread: TBD
Over/Under: TBD
Implied Vegas point totals: TBD

Detroit Lions

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Minnesota Vikings

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Quarterback

Detroit: Stafford has disappointed in some plus matchups recently, but he came alive against a stout Colts defense and delivered a solid fantasy performance. Everything lines up for Stafford to deliver another huge performance here, but we’ve been disappointed too many times this season in these types of matchups to trust him as anything more than a low-end QB1. Obviously, this is under the assumption that he’s cleared to play in time for this game.

Minnesota: In a game where Dalvin Cook ran all over the Green Bay Packers, Cousins wasn’t needed much. Cousins only threw the ball 14 times on Sunday and there’s a very real possibility that we see Cook go off for another monstrous performance again against the Lions. This limits Cousins’ ceiling and it makes him a risky streaming QB option for week nine.

Running Backs

Detroit: Just when we thought we could trust Matt Patricia and the way he utilizes his running backs, he pulls a fast one on us and gives D’Andre Swift only six carries. While he did see four targets in the passing game, Swift was highly inefficient against the Colts stout run defense and he let fantasy managers down in week eight. Moving forward, Swift still belongs in your starting lineup due to the RB landscape, but it’s going to be very difficult to put him in your lineup with any sort of confidence. He can be viewed as a low-end RB2 this week in a much better matchup.

Minnesota: Are you happy that you started Cook in week eight? Goodness. Cook put up about as big of a performance as you can possibly have last week and he might be in line for another huge outing again here. The Lions have had problems stopping opposing RBs all year long and Cook should have no issues putting up huge numbers. He’s a top-3 option yet again.

Wide Receivers

Detroit: With Kenny Golladay out for this matchup, Jones will step up into the leading receiver role. While he only saw three targets last week, he was able to find the end zone twice. Against the Vikings secondary, that is badly banged up right now, Jones is a solid WR2 option that has immense upside in this one.

Minnesota: Thielen simply wasn’t needed this past week with Cook running all over the Packers. While there’s a possibility that could happen again here, Thielen still belongs in your starting lineup as a WR2 with upside. Thielen’s not a match for these Detroit corners and he could be in line for a big day if the Vikings throw it more than 14 times. Jefferson took a back seat last week to Dalvin Cook, but there’s no reason to panic and drop him significantly down your rankings. This is not going to be the normal game script for the Vikings and they should be forced to throw the ball a significant amount regularly. With the injuries the Vikings have on the back end, Stafford and the Lions could go up big in this game and force the Vikings to play catch up. Jefferson is a low-end WR2 this week with upside.

Tight Ends

Detroit: Hockenson wasn’t targeted much before Kenny Golladay left with his injury. With Golladay out for this matchup, Hockenson should be viewed as a top-tier start at the TE position.

Minnesota: Smith wasn’t needed last week, along with every other Vikings pass-catcher, but he should see enough work in this matchup to be viewed as a streaming option. If you’re in need of someone at TE, Smith’s an excellent option.

FantasyProjection Buster: The entire Lions offense will look drastically different if Chase Daniel is starting at QB. It’s too early to alter the projections though, because there’s optimism that Stafford will play in this one, but this entire offense could bust my projections if Daniel is in.