Welcome to the second installment of my measuring consistency series! I already wrote about quarterbacks here, and I’ll cover running backs in this article.
You can get a sense of player consistency by researching each startable player’s average production and volatility. That will help you tailor your draft strategies to target players that fit, at least historically, into your desired roster construction strategy. Risk-averse managers may prefer higher-floor, more consistent assets; other managers may want higher-ceiling, less consistent players.
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In each article in this series, I will analyze every startable player’s weekly performances to understand their average production. Then, I will cluster and index them against their respective positional groups. After reviewing each position group’s top players in a standard 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE league (i.e., top 18 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs, and top 18 TEs), I will note a few players to target in 2021 drafts. Additionally, considering that none of these players were particularly awful (they were primary startable players at their positions after all), I will spotlight stellar and middling performances depending on the player’s average production and volatility, measured by their coefficient of variation (CV).
With quarterbacks already done, let’s move onto running backs.
Data, Visualization, & Analysis
Running backs, generally the most valuable position in fantasy football, presented a bit more variety than quarterbacks. Top performers, like Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry, were in their own tier throughout the season (Christian McCaffrey would have landed here if he had played more games). If you had Kamara on your team and made it to the Week 16 championship, you most likely won your league (which also impacted Kamara’s CV in the below visualization). Furthermore, beast performances by Henry down the stretch can’t be overlooked.
Beyond these fantasy MVPs, however, there were certain late-season bloomers, like Jonathan Taylor, who finally played his way out of Frank Reich’s doghouse; Nick Chubb, who returned from a knee injury; and David Montgomery, who crushed a favorable schedule with true workhorse-level volume. Despite the poor — or nonexistent — production of these backs throughout the season, these running backs won many leagues for managers who could withstand their underwhelming starts to the year. Alternatively, the disappointing seasons of Kenyan Drake and Todd Gurley, whose value depended upon touchdowns, frustrated managers who spent early-round picks on them.
League Winners:
- Nick Chubb (tenth highest scorer; 16.6 PPG; 0.44 CV)
- David Montgomery (fourth highest scorer; 16.1 PPG; 0.46 CV)
League Losers:
- Todd Gurley (24th highest scorer; 10.0 PPG; 0.69 CV)
- Kenyan Drake (14th highest scorer; 12.0 PPG; 0.56 CV)
Unlike with quarterbacks, fantasy managers should target running backs early and often in their fantasy drafts. We see the highest-ranked preseason options perform generally well, both for average production and volatility. It just comes down to your risk tolerance and independent player valuations. In 2021 drafts, I recommend drafting at least two running backs in your first four rounds, ideally two workhorses (e.g., Derrick Henry or Joe Mixon) — or rushers who at least lead their respective backfields in target share (e.g., Austin Ekeler or D’Andre Swift).
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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to a more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.
Jared Lese is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, check out his archive and follow him @JaredL_FF.
