Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins
Date/Time: Sunday November 7, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Dolphins -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Dolphins 26.25, Texans 19.75
Quarterback
Davis Mills or Tyrod Taylor: Sidelined by a hamstring injury that he sustained in Week 2, Taylor returned to practice last week, but the Texans decided to play it safe with Taylor and give Mills his sixth consecutive start. Taylor and Mills are expected to split first-team practice reps before the Texans decide on a starter for Week 9, but with a Week 10 bye looming, the team may well exercise caution for one more game and bring back Taylor in Week 11. Mills has averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game as a starter, and he wouldn’t be an attractive option even in a soft matchup against the Dolphins. He’s the QB27 this week. Taylor’s running ability would make him a slightly more appealing option, and he’d probably land in the QB18-QB20 range if he were cleared to play.
Tua Tagovailoa: Rumors of a Deshaun Watson trade never came to fruition, and so Tua remains the Dolphins’ starting quarterback indefinitely. He struggled last week in a 26-11 loss to the Bills, completing 21 of 39 passes for 205 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, but a lot of quarterbacks have struggled against Buffalo’s league-best pass defense. The matchup will be much softer for Tua this weekend when he faces the Texans, who are giving up 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Tua ranks QB15 this week, and he’s a reasonable cost-cutting option at only $5,800 on DraftKings.
Running Backs
David Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Scottie Phillips, and Phillip Lindsay: After the trade that sent Mark Ingram back to New Orleans last week, some fantasy managers grabbed David Johnson or Phillip Lindsay off the waiver wire, thinking their roles would be enhanced. Instead, the Texans used a messy four-way RB amalgam. No Houston running back had more than five carries or four targets. The 31-year-old Rex Burkhead led the way with a 49% target share, but most of his snaps came with the Texans being blown out by the Rams in the second half. The Texans’ backfield is a pit of despair, and as I noted on Twitter last week, it’s not worth an investment.
Myles Gaskin: With Malcolm Brown on IR with a quad injury, Gaskin played 58% of the offensive snaps for Miami last week against Buffalo and led the backfield with 15 touches. He’s had 27 carries and eight targets over the last two weeks, but Gaskin’s rushing workload isn’t especially valuable on a team that’s averaging just 78.6 rushing yards a game. Miami’s offensive line ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards run-blocking metric. The Texans have given up a league-high 1,185 rushing yards, but can the Dolphins run the ball well enough to take advantage of a soft matchup? Gaskin is a back-end RB2. Ahmed has gotten seven carries and two targets in each of the last three games, so we have a pretty good estimate of what his workload might look like. He checks in at RB53.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks: After going five games without a touchdown, Cooks found the end zone against the Rams in Week 8, finishing with 6-83-1 on six targets. The eventual return of QB Tyrod Taylor, whether this week or after Houston’s Week 10 bye, should boost Cook’s stock, and he’s certainly playable even with Mills at quarterback – Cooks has been the WR30 over Mills’ six starts. Cooks is tentatively ranked WR23 this week, but he might move up or down a few spots depending on who’s under center for the Texans.
Jaylen Waddle: Even with DeVante Parker returning to the Dolphins’ lineup last week after a three-game absence, Waddle still saw 12 targets. The bad news is that the rookie only had a 4-29-0 stat line, but it seemed as if Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa just happened to make some of his worst throws of the day on passes intended for Waddle. The rookie checks in at WR28 this week against a Houston defense that’s giving up 26.0 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He’s not a bad DraftKings option at a reasonably priced $5,900.
DeVante Parker: Save for a late drop, Parker looked terrific last week, making a series of difficult catches on the way to an 8-85-0 day against a tough Buffalo defense. Parker had missed the previous three games with a hamstring injury, and he had a meaty 28.2% target share in his first game back. After facing the Bills last week, Parker gets a much easier draw against the Texans in Week 9. He’s a midrange WR3 this week, and he’s worth your consideration in DraftKings contests at a sale price of $5,300.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki averaged 13.0 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) in Weeks 6-7 when he had 15-200-1 on 17 targets. Last week against the Bills, he had 3-48-0 on four targets. Could the dip in production be attributed to DeVante Parker‘s return from a hamstring injury after missing three games? Parker did have 11 targets, but the slow day for Gesicki was probably more attributable to a tough Bills defense that’s giving up 5.5 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) to tight ends. Gesicki is a good candidate for a rebound against the Texans, who are yielding 10.7 fantasy points per game to TEs.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Date/Time: Sunday November 7, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 26.25, Eagles 23.75
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: The 23-year-old has hit a bit of a speed bump in his sophomore campaign, registering a 3:3 TD:INT over his past two games. During this span, he ranks 31st out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play. He ranked 33rd in completion percentage over expectation. The Chargers have struggled on early downs this season, and perhaps it’s partially due to the complexity of OC Joe Lombardi’s offense. Regardless of the reason, Herbert hasn’t been good as of late. Philadelphia’s defense ranks 13th in EPA per dropback and 28th in EPA per rush, so rational coaching would indicate a run-heavy game plan. LA is a pass-happy offense, though, so it remains to be seen how much they’ll adjust to their opponent. It’s also no secret that opposing offenses can run all over the Chargers, which is limiting Herbert’s opportunities and time of possession. He remains a low-end QB1 based on his talent and offensive environment, but this doesn’t set up as an ideal bounce-back spot.
Jalen Hurts: It shouldn’t come as a surprise since it’s a Brandon Staley defense, but the Chargers are much more beatable on the ground than through the air. The difference is enormous, with LA’s D ranking 10th in EPA per dropback but 32nd in EPA per rush. Meanwhile, Hurts’ struggles as a passer have persisted, ranking 32nd out of 34 qualifiers in CPOE since Week 5. Philly’s offensive eruption against Detroit last Sunday might’ve saved him from being benched this weekend, but a run-first game plan makes too much sense here. Hurts’ dual-threat abilities and the potential for his team to be trailing in the fourth quarter keep him in play as a must-start QB1, but he suddenly feels more volatile than he’s been to this point in 2021.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: Fantasy managers escaped an injury scare entering Week 8 and the 26-year-old piled up 124 total yards and a touchdown against the Patriots. As mentioned above, he now draws a Philly defense ranking 28th in EPA per play against the rush. This should help his efficiency, but Ekeler has topped 11 carries in just 3-of-7 games this season. LA is a pass-first offense, and we can’t be certain that they’ll adjust the game plan based on their opponent. Herbert is so talented that maybe we shouldn’t blame them either. Nonetheless, Ekeler’s usage in the passing game will help render him a matchup-agonistic RB1 rest-of-season.
Boston Scott, Jordan Howard: Both of these RBs handled 12 carries in Week 8 and both of them scored two touchdowns. It was an impressive ground attack by the Eagles, though it certainly wasn’t what most folks within the fantasy world were anticipating. We’ll get to Gainwell below, but the question now becomes how to handle Scott and Howard in a very appetizing Week 9 matchup. The Chargers are arguably the best draw for opposing RBs in fantasy football. The issue is both of these backs split carries when the game against the Lions was still competitive. Because of that, neither can be trusted as anything more than a TD-hopeful RB3.
Kenneth Gainwell: Oof. This one hurt. The Eagles scored four rushing touchdowns against the Lions and somehow Gainwell didn’t record a single one of them. Surprisingly, 12 of his 13 touches came in the fourth quarter with the game now uncompetitive. The rookie should now be viewed as a change-of-pace RB in the passing game, and not the high-end Miles Sanders handcuff we thought he might be. Gainwell will need negative game script to return value against the Chargers. He’s an RB4 in PPR formats.
Wide Receivers
Mike Williams: Things have been a bit all over for Big Mike in recent weeks. He came storming out of the gate in Weeks 1-3 by recording an ADOT between 9.7 and 10.0 in each game. Since then, his lowest ADOT in a game has been 14.0 and he has disappointed in the box score in 3-of-4 games. However, he has also been playing through a bit of a knee issue. In Week 6 against the Ravens he ran a route on just 38% of LA’s dropbacks. This past Sunday, after his bye, he was targeted on just 12% of his routes. I’m personally more concerned about his health rather than the role change right now. Williams is a bet-on-talent WR2 against the Eagles this weekend.
Keenan Allen: He hasn’t gone bonkers yet, but Allen has drawn 8+ targets in all but one game this year. The 29-year-old hasn’t topped 100 receiving yards since Week 2, but his utilization remains that of a WR1 in arguably the best offense he has ever played in. The Chargers’ decision to pass early and often has helped them support both him and Williams as weekly top-24 options, though the latter has certainly been more hit-or-miss. Allen is more of a secondary receiver at this point in his career, but he’s still a very bankable fantasy option in this neutral matchup.
DeVonta Smith: The rookie had a dream matchup in Week 8 against Detroit but was unable to deliver a big fantasy performance. The lack of volume (three targets) was due to the Eagles taking a huge lead early on, but the bigger concern moving forward is Hurts’ struggles as a passer. Smith is being utilized as the alpha wideout in this offense, handling a 23% target share with a 14.4 ADOT and a 39% air yards share. Unfortunately, he’s still just a boom-bust WR3 who has a brutal Week 9 matchup.
Jalen Reagor: Coach Nick Sirianni is “hopeful” that Reagor plays in Week 9, but his presence isn’t a given after exiting Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. It has been another inefficient year for the TCU product, who has yet to top 53 receiving yards in a game this season. He’s being targeted on just 14% of his routes so far in 2021. Given the brutal Week 9 opponent, Reagor can be left on waivers in standard 12-team fantasy leagues even if he suits up.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook, Donald Parham: The Chargers came out of their bye in Week 8 and barely featured Parham (18% route share), so Cook is still the tight end to roster on this team. The pass-happy nature of their offense keeps him in play as a weekly TE2, but the profile still isn’t one to get overly excited about. Cook’s route percentage (69%) and targets-per-route-run (18%) both check in below the thresholds we like to see at this position (80% and 20% respectively).
Dallas Goedert: Goedert has posted or matched season-highs in both targets and yards in two games following the Zach Ertz trade. The usage was particularly promising in Week 8 against the Lions, with Goedert being targeted on a whopping 38% of his routes. Given Hurts’ passing struggles, Goedert’s 8.9 ADOT makes him a more reliable weekly option than Smith, but the upside obviously isn’t as high. He’s a mid-tier TE1 for Week 9 and moving forward.
Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Sunday November 7, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chiefs 27.75, Packers 20.25
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Aaron Rodgers has tested positive for COVID-19, leaving Love to make his first NFL start. This is Love’s second season in Green Bay, and the only action he’s seen is when he mopped up in the Packers’ blowout loss to the Saints in Week 1 of this season, completing 5 of 7 passes for 68 yards. (He also ran three times for minus-3 yards.) Love was a polarizing prospect coming out of Utah State. He was marvelous as a redshirt sophomore in 2018, throwing for 3,567 yards with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions, and adding seven TD runs. He was far more erratic in 2019, his final college season, when his completion percentage and YPA both dropped and he threw 20 TD passes and 17 interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns. Love has a rocket arm and good mobility, but he’s obviously short on NFL seasoning. A soft matchup against a putrid Chiefs defense will help, but I can’t move Love any higher than QB17 in the Week 9 rankings.
Patrick Mahomes: We missed out on a Patrick Mahomes–Aaron Rodgers matchup last year when Mahomes got hurt right before the Chiefs-Packers game, and we’re going to miss out again this week now that Rodgers has been scratched due to COVID-19. Mahomes continues to look not quite himself in 2021. He was strangely inefficient in a Week 8 Monday-night home game against the Giants, completing 29 of 48 passes for 275 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Mahomes could have easily had three interceptions in that game, and he’s been unusually reckless with his throws all season. Although Mahomes has been out of sync, a Mahomes-Rodgers matchup had juicy shootout potential. With Jordan Love making his first NFL start in place of Rodgers, it’s fair to wonder whether Mahomes’ ceiling will be capped. The Chiefs are now favored by 7 points, and a lopsided Kansas City victory could tamp down the Chiefs’ passing volume. I have Mahomes QB3 this week behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, and Rodgers’ absence lowers Mahomes’ floor considerably.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon: You have to figure that with Aaron Rodgers out this week, the Packers are going to lean heavily on their running backs. It’s not hard to imagine Jones and Dillon combining for 30-35 carries and 10-15 targets – a true RB bonanza. The Chiefs are better against the run than the pass, but this is still a plus matchup for Jones and Dillon. Jones is the RB4 this week, and Dillon lands at RB26.
Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore: In a surprise development, the previously unknown Gore had almost as many carries as Williams in a Week 8 win over the Giants, rushing 11 times for 48 yards and a touchdown, and looking pretty good in the process. Williams investors were understandably taken aback by the intrusion upon Williams’ workload, though Williams out-snapped Gore 52-16 and out-touched him 19-11. Williams finished with 13-49-0 rushing and 6-61-0 receiving. I think we still have to consider Williams the more valuable guy, but maybe he’s going to lose some early-down work to Gore and perhaps goal-line carries, too, and then there’s the eventual return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire to further complicate the value calculus here. I have Williams ranked RB28 this week, but I have no idea how good an assessment that is – he’s one of the toughest players to rank this week. Gore is a 25-year-old undrafted free agent who began his college career as a walk-on at Alabama and finished at Louisiana-Monroe. He bounced from the Chargers’ practice squad to the Washington Football Team’s practice squad before signing with the Chiefs in February, and the Chiefs first activated him from their practice squad after Edwards-Helaire got hurt. RB talent is hard to gauge, and opportunity often matters more. It’s hard to tell what sort of opportunity Gore will have here, but he figures to be in the mix at least until CEH comes back. He checks in at RB32 this week.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams: With Aaron Rodgers scratched due to COVID-19, Adams is the only Green Bay receiver you can consider using for fantasy, and we certainly have to lower our expectations for him. Adams enters Sunday’s matchup against the Chiefs with 52-744-3 on the season in seven games. He was on the COVID-19 list himself last week and didn’t play in the Packers’ Thursday-night win over the Cardinals. With Rodgers at quarterback, Adams would be the WR2 in the Week 9 rankings. With Jordan Love making his first NFL start, Adams is the WR9 and not worth the cost in DFS contests.
Tyreek Hill: If you had known Hill was going to be targeted 18 times against the Giants in Week 8, how many receiving yards and touchdowns would you have guessed he’d finish with? Maybe 150 yards and two TDs? Maybe 200 yards and three TDs? The answer turned out to be 94 yards and one touchdown on 12 receptions. You’re not complaining too much about the net result if you’re a Hill stakeholder, but it speaks volumes about the surprising inefficiency of the Kansas City offense this season. For the record, Hill had one previous 18-target game and a 19-target game. He finished with 11-157-1 and 9-113-1, respectively, so maybe those high-target games simply aren’t the scoring bonanzas for Hill we’d expect them to be. Even with the maddening inefficiency of the Chiefs’ offense, Hill is certainly capable of going off in Week 9 against a Packers defense that’s still missing ace CB Jaire Alexander. Hill is the WR2 this week and worth your consideration in DraftKings contests at $7,900.
Mecole Hardman: Hardman has seen 29 targets over the last four games, and that would normally seem like valuable usage in the Kansas City offense, but Hardman had turned those targets into 22 scoreless receptions for 229 yards. As a rookie, Hardman had an average depth of target of 11.0 yards and averaged 20.7 yards per catch. In this, his third season, he has an aDOT of 6.9 yards and is averaging 10.1 yards per catch. Without the big plays, there’s not a lot to like here. Hardman is a low-end WR4 against the Packers in Week 9.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Don’t look now, but the king of tight ends has gone three games without a touchdown and five games without a 100-yard performance. Kelce is averaging 9.0 targets this season, which is basically in line with his target averages since he began his streak of five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in 2016. But the Kansas City passing game simply hasn’t been efficient as it’s been in the recent past, and King Kelce hasn’t been immune to the 2021 inefficiency. Kelce could very well bounce back from last week’s disappointing 4-27-0 stat line, but he’ll be facing a Packers defense that has limited opposing tight ends to 6.0 fantasy points per game. Kelce is nevertheless the TE1 in the Week 9 rankings, though he’s a fade this week in DraftKings contests at a cost of $7,000.
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
Date/Time: Sunday November 7, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cardinals -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cardinals 23.5, 49ers 22.5
Quarterback
Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy: Murray sprained his ankle against the Packers in Week 9, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be available to face the 49ers in Week 9, although it seems as if he’s trending toward playing. The fact that the game against Green Bay was on a Thursday and that Murray will have had nine days to rest gives him better odds of playing than if he were on a normal one-week cycle, But if Murray does play, his mobility will likely be compromised, so the fantasy ceiling comes down. The 49ers have major problems at cornerback and are giving up 20.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but Murray is still only the QB7 this week, assuming he plays. If Murray can’t go and Colt McCoy gets the call, he’ll be ranked in the QB25-QB27 range.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Jimmy G may have bought himself more time as the 49ers’ starting quarterback by throwing for 322 yards and running for a pair of touchdowns last week in a 33-22 win over the Bears. Garoppolo still has high first-round draft pick Trey Lance looking over his shoulder, so anyone investing in Jimmy G this week should acknowledge the risk of an in-game benching. Garoppolo has a tough matchup against a Cardinals pass defense that’s yielding only 6.3 yards per pass attempt and ranks second in DVOA. He’s a low-end QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Chase Edmonds and James Conner: Edmonds and Conner are being ranked as if Kyler Murray will play in Week 9 despite a sprained ankle that left him in a walking boot immediately after the Cardinals’ Week 9 loss to the Packers. Edmonds comes in at RB21, Conner RB27. You could make the case that those rankings are overly conservative since the Cardinals might lean on their RBs more heavily with Murray banged up. But Edmonds and Conner face a pretty good 49ers run defense, and their TD chances could be compromised if Murray isn’t at full capacity and doesn’t move the offense as well as he normally does. Conner’s ceiling could be especially diminished if Murray isn’t 100%, since his 2021 value has been so TD-dependent.
Elijah Mitchell: If there was any doubt about Mitchell’s job security as the 49ers’ lead RB, he laid it to rest in Week 8 with his second consecutive 100-yard rushing day. Mitchell had an 18-137-1 rushing day against the Bears last Sunday on the heels of an 18-107-1 game against the Colts in Week 7. The only small complaint Mitchell stakeholders might have is that he’s not involved in the passing game. He hasn’t seen a target since Week 5 and has only four receptions for 30 yards this season. But even if Mitchell’s fantasy value is derived solely from his rushing, at least he’s playing in Kyle Shanahan’s well-designed zone running scheme and operating behind a strong offensive line. Mitchell is a high-end RB2 this week. His $5,800 price tag on DraftKings makes him a solid value even though he catches few passes.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: QB Kyler Murray is dealing with a sprained ankle, and Hopkins has a hamstring issue. Even though Hopkins has a dream matchup against 49ers CB Josh Norman, who hasn’t aged well, the combined two-player medical risk involved here makes Hopkins a much riskier play than usual. He’s a midrange WR2 and not a DFS consideration.
Christian Kirk: Even though the Cardinals have four fantasy-relevant WRs, Kirk has been surprisingly steady this year, producing 34-454-4 and sitting WR25 in fantasy scoring. We have to be a little more cautious with Kirk this week since QB Kyler Murray will be playing on a sprained ankle. Kirk is a high-end WR4 this week, and I’m fading him at $5,300 on DraftKings even though the possible absence of A.J. Green, who’s on the COVID-19 list, could funnel an extra target or two in Kirk’s direction.
A.J. Green: Green went on the COVID-19 list this week and seems unlikely to play against the 49ers this week. He would have been a marginal play to begin with, and now the choice to sit him in season-long leagues will be easy.
Rondale Moore: I’m actually sort of intrigued by Moore given the Cardinals’ unusual circumstances. A.J. Green is on the COVID-19 list, and if he’s out for Week 9, it could mean extra snaps and targets for Moore. It’s also possible that Kyler Murray‘s sprained ankle works to Moore’s advantage, with Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury dialing up plays designed to get the ball out of Murray’s hands quickly – the sort of short-area stuff that has been Moore’s specialty. That might be an overly optimistic assessment since Moore hasn’t topped 26 yards from scrimmage in any of his last three games. He’s the WR44 this week. I’ll test my theory on Moore’s usage by throwing him into a DraftKings GPP lineup at only $4,200.
Deebo Samuel: Deebo has commanded a massive 34% target share this season, but George Kittle‘s anticipated return from a calf injury could siphon away a small handful of Samuel’s targets. No matter. Samuel’s fantasy value is unlikely to be diminished by Kittle’s presence. Deebo is the WR4 this week. His DraftKings price of $7,800 isn’t outrageous, but there are better buys among the Gucci-brand wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz: Ertz had a 3-66-1 receiving line in his first game with the Cardinals, then had 4-42-0 last week vs. the Packers. He’s the TE11 this week against a 49ers defense allowing just 3.9 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
George Kittle: Kittle has been practicing this week and is expected to return from a calf injury. He hasn’t played since Week 4, and over his first four games, he was only the TE11 in fantasy scoring, in large part because he has zero touchdowns. Kittle returns to a difficult matchup against an Arizona defense that’s giving up only 3.7 fantasy points per game to tight ends. He’s the TE7 this week.
