For those of you drafting this weekend, I wanted to give you an in-depth draft guide to my best practices and strategies when it comes to making picks. Let’s get into it since the next couple of days will likely be the most popular draft days of 2022.
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Do Your Research
Doing your research basically applies to every other category of this article. Be prepared.
You should know all of the players worthy of being drafted in your league and be prepped on all injuries, brush up on offseason changes, current ADP, and intriguing team situations.
I stray away from guys who have a current injury and serious injury history as they are prone to be overdrafted and, of course, reaggravation of their present injury. Take, for example, Chris Sale (SP – BOS). According to our Expert Consensus Rankings, Sale is the 137th overall ranked player. Incredibly, his ADP sits at 99th, which means he is being drafted ahead of the likes of Chris Bassitt (SP – NYM), Shane McClanahan (SP – TB), and Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA), who are all safer, multi-category contributor options. Trevor Rogers (SP – MIA) is being drafted just three spots ahead of Sale at 96. You, your mother, your father, and the rest of your league should take Trevor Rogers over Chris Sale every day of the week. Yes, Chris Sale is a fantastic pitcher (when healthy), but you must weigh the uncertainty of an injury in addition to injury history and value.
Continuing with Marlins pitchers as examples – Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA), my 2022 dark-horse Cy Young candidate, now has Jacob Stallings (C – MIA) as his battery-mate. Stallings has the best receiving skills and softest hands in baseball behind the dish, allowing no passed balls and leading the Majors in DRS in 2021. For 2022, target Marlins’ pitchers who had league-worst defensive catcher Jorge Alfaro (C – SD) and the revolving door of Sandy Leon (C – SD) and Alex Jackson (C – MIA) last year – and now have a Gold Glover in Stallings this year.
Some of the following players find themselves in a new home with a better situation than last year (arguably except for second-half Kyle Schwarber (OF – PHI)). As for some of these significant offseason movers, I am targeting Matt Olson (1B – ATL) from picks 24-30, Nick Castellanos (OF – PHI) from picks 40-46, and Schwarber as a strong middle-round target. After moving from Oakland to Toronto, Matt Chapman (3B – TOR) also gets a tremendous boost towards the later/middle-ish part of drafts.
A Quick Note on Draft Strategy
Heading into the draft, you must have an idea of what you want to accomplish by the time you fill your team. Are you looking to draft starters early? Are you looking to grab an elite closer – or even two elite closers? Are you going to roster a top catcher rather than wait? All of these are defensible options, but I will describe what has worked best for me in the past that will help you move forward.
Shohei Ohtani (P, DH – LAA)… Let’s Just Get This Out of the Way
In leagues where The Japanese Bambino is dual eligible, feel free to take him around pick 9 for weekly lock leagues and within the top-3 for daily lock leagues. Now, moving on.
Try to Draft an Elite Starter Early (Just Not in Round 1)
Assuming a standard 5×5 league, always place your targets on four/five-category contributors early on. Usually, I like to avoid pitchers in the first round but want to target them heavily in the second round.
Gerrit Cole’s (SP – NYY) ADP sits at 6.6 right now, while Corbin Burnes’ (SP – MIL) is right in the middle of 8th and 9th at 8.6. While you can maybe get Walker Buehler (SP – LAD) at 16 or Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL) at 20 (according to their ADP) – you will almost certainly be able to draft one of them in the second round. Yes, Burnes has the best pitch in baseball, and his FIP was 1.63 last season – yes, 1.63. Extenuating circumstances like bad fielding and the new rule changes will likely help narrow the gap between him and someone like Buehler, who ended up with a very similar five-category year as Burnes in 2021.
Simply put, if you are picking at 7, 8, or 9 – Bryce Harper (OF – PHI) and new Dodger Freddie Freeman (1B – LAD) are the picks. On the wraparound, you can then target Buehler or Woodruff if you are in a 12-team league. Give me Harper/Freeman and somehow Buehler/Woodruff OVER Cole/Burnes and Luis Robert (OF – CWS)/Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL)/Manny Machado (3B – SD).
Don’t Reach on Closers
As for closers and relievers, go for it if you can grab Josh Hader (RP – MIL) or Liam Hendriks (RP – CWS) at around pick 50. Other than that, let people overdraft closers. Incredibly, Taylor Rogers (RP – MIN) is going 53 spots later than Mark Melancon (RP – ARI). Last year, Minnesota’s Rogers had a lower xERA, xFIP, BB%, and higher K% than the incumbent Diamondback. Personally, I think Rogers is both the better pitcher and the better fantasy play while Melancon is going 53 – yes, 53 – spots ahead of Rogers. The takeaway is to wait on closers because you can have someone like Rogers or even a Gregory Soto (RP – DET)-type available three or four rounds later.
Find Value in Later Catchers
While he is probably my favorite real-life player due to his effortless power, historically good eye, and defensive track record (albeit not so much last year), Yasmani Grandal (C – CWS) should not be a top 100 pick. As for the top three catchers per ADP in Salvador Perez (C – KC), JT Realmuto (C – PHI), and Will Smith (C – LAD), you are probably best suited to wait for a value pick later in drafts even past Grandal. Perez is going around pick 30, and Realmuto and Smith around pick 60. If I could offer one piece of advice that sticks with you throughout this article, it would be not to draft Salvador Perez at 30. You can expect regression from Perez, a year older, unlikely to play 161 games again, and almost has no way of putting up a 4% BB rate with close to repeating 48 home runs. I expect Smith and Realmuto to finish with similar stats as Perez in 2022. So, I project the top three catchers to be .260, 20-25 home runs, 70-80 RBI type guys – why not take Realmuto and Smith at 55-60? You would only draft them around 60 because they are catchers without believing there is actual value elsewhere. If you dig deep enough, you will find Mitch Garver (C – MIN), who hit .256 with 13 HR in just 207 at-bats in 2021 – and now finds himself in an extraordinary situation as he will both catch and DH when defensive wiz Jonah Heim (C – TEX) gets the start. Brace yourselves, folks. Garver is going about 100 spots back from Grandal, 130 spots back from Realmuto/Smith, and 160 spots from Perez. Garver has top-five positional upside should make you stray away from catchers early. Some other late value catchers of note: Keibert Ruiz (C – WAS), Tyler Stephenson (C, 1B – CIN), and Elias Diaz (C – COL).
Some Late Round Sleepers to Target
Before I go, I wanted to leave you with a shortlist of players who are simply going way too late in drafts. Whether it be the lack of experience, small sample size, or prior poor results – I expect these guys to make a real fantasy impact in 2022 and outperform their current ADP.
- Joe Ryan (SP – MIN) (plus fastball, a slightly above average slider, average pushing above-average command, and an intriguing 2022 Twins roster)
- Jo Adell (OF – LAA) (I still believe in the bat, sure – not as much as I once did – but I still see All-Star potential oozing from the profile)
- Enrique Hernandez (2B, OF – BOS) (Potential for 20 home runs and leading off for one of the league’s best lineups
- Eric Lauer (SP – MIL) (Advanced metrics are eh, but he had a 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP with the highest strikeout rate of his career last year)
- Andrew Vaughn (1B, OF – CWS) (Copy and paste Adell’s note with slightly less oozing All-Star potential)
- Elias Diaz (C – COL) (He could have had a full blurb in the catcher section of this article. Coors Field and 18 home runs last year – don’t mind if I do at pick 265)
BONUS: Don’t Take Spring Training Stats Too Seriously
See Greg Bird’s 2017 Spring Training stats vs. Greg Bird’s 2017 regular season stats.
…And Most of All…
Good luck this weekend!
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