In prior articles in this series, we looked at batted ball events that gauged the rate at which batters achieved “hard-hit” contact. In this installment, we will look to define how hard said contact really was.

It’s exit velocity — “exit velo” in baseball circles — and is one of the most popular talking points. How can we turn it into something from which we can benefit our fantasy teams?

Average Exit Velocity – Batters

Below are two tables of batters sorted by average exit velocity, with maximum exit velocities also shown. Only qualified players were used.

Sorted by Average Exit Velocity High-to-Low

Sorted by Average Exit Velocity Low-to-High

Notes

• The same few names appear at the top of almost every hitting chart throughout this series. Yordan Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge are still putting up monster numbers, and it isn’t difficult to see why. All three hit the ball with average exit velocities north of 95 miles-per-hour. Alvarez is currently hurt, but his seat atop the list is a testament to his incredible 2022 campaign.
• Whenever we look at averages, the sample size plays a role. For that reason, it is more impressive for someone like Rafael Devers to have sustained the fifth-highest average exit velocity with the 21st most batted ball events in the league than for Franmil Reyes to rank just in front of him with fewer than half the number of batted ball events. This isn’t a knock on Reyes, suggesting that more opportunities might lead to continued success. Still, to see Devers perform so well with a high sample size is an outstanding sign.
• In sticking with the theme of sample size, we should take note of the players who made the top group for average exit velocity despite fewer batted ball events. J.D. Davis and Patrick Wisdom are players who could provide sneaky value if they were to simply match their current pace. Of course, that’s asking for the increased number of balls-in-play to produce exactly the same result as in the past, but there is a precedent set.
• As always, there is the opposite side of the table. Many names align with general expectations, where home runs are not their calling cards. Still, the generally lowered exit velocity will probably result in a decrease in hit production. Someone like Connor Joe is worth an additional look, as he gains so much value from playing his home games in Colorado. If he can drive the ball more regularly, his home run total has a clear path to increase. He is, however, 237 batted ball events into the season and has just five home runs on the year. To his credit, four have been hit on the road.

Average Exit Velocity – Batters

Below are two tables of batters sorted by average exit velocity, with maximum exit velocities also shown. Only qualified players were used.

Sorted by Average Exit Velocity Low-to-High

Sorted by Average Exit Velocity High-to-Low

Notes

• Where we focussed plenty of our attention with the hitters on exit velocity and the number of times batters hit a ball into play, we view pitchers through a different lens. All things being equal, we don’t want our pitchers to give up any contact — especially in fantasy leagues, where strikeouts hold a separate value to simply recording outs. Of course, some pitches must result in a batted ball, but we aren’t looking for the same disconnect in sample size. Having a low number of batted ball events is valuable in its own right.
• Joely Rodriguez, Caleb Thielbar, Devin Williams, and Wandy Peralta have fewer than 100 batted ball events and the lowest exit velocities among qualified players. Williams, specifically, has been unhittable. Although it does not appear in this table, he has allowed zero “barrels” this season. It is obviously not surprising that his overall exit velocity is the third-lowest in the sport.
• While much of the chart will feature relief pitchers thriving, we certainly have to respect any starting pitcher who makes the list. Drew Smyly and Zach Eflin are two of the most effective at inducing soft contact when pitches are put into play, but they are also unlikely to carry a high strikeout total. This is the tradeoff.
• Where there is a clear pattern to the hitters in the first two tables — those who are known for power generally sat at the top while the bottom was reserved for those without high home run totals — the pitchers take a different approach. In a word, they are inconsistent. A decent mix of starting and relief pitchers fill the last table, including some closers. To return to an earlier point, this is likely the result of a pitcher finding success by either limiting hard contact or avoiding batted balls altogether.

Have something you want me to cover in this space, or do you just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.