Here are four overvalued running backs to think twice about during your fantasy football drafts.
4 Overvalued Running Backs
Damien Harris (NE): Consensus ADP – RB26 | 54th Overall
“Damien Harris is currently the RB26 and whilst he was very impressive last year, he was reliant on his 15 touchdowns to stay fantasy viable. This year Rhamondre Stevenson looks set to eat into the running workload and may even pass Harris in ADP soon. Harris is a good player, but relying on a player who relies on touchdowns is a situation I don’t want for my rosters. ”
– Tom Strachan
“Damien Harris’ fantasy production last season was largely because of huge touchdown numbers that are sure to regress. There’s also serious competition for touches from Rhamondre Stevenson. The duo split touches down the stretch and rumblings out of New England are that Stevenson is impressing as a pass-catcher. Give me the second-year back over Harris. ”
– Joe Serpico
Antonio Gibson (WAS): Consensus ADP – RB19 | 34th Overall
“Asking for RB19 production as a Round 3 pick is a lot to ask of Antonio Gibson. AG averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game in half-point scoring (RB9) in the five games that J.D. McKissic missed last season. In the other 11 games, the Memphis product owned just an 8% target share and ran a route on 36% of the team’s dropbacks to go along with 12.1 points per game (RB23). With third-round rookie running back Brian Robinson added into the mix as a likely candidate to earn touches on early downs and at the goal line, the volume distribution in the Washington backfield is not favoring Gibson’s fantasy upside. Third-round running backs have earned 125 touches on average since 2013, making it unlikely AG is able to repeat his fourth-ranked 300-touch workload from a season ago. Gibson’s current ADP ranking at RB19 is nearly identical to his fantasy points per game finish in half-point scoring from 2021 (RB18).”
– Andrew Erickson
Cam Akers (LAR): Consensus ADP – RB18 | 33rd Overall
“Cam Akers entered college as a five-star recruit, and he was productive on a bad team at Florida State (1,369 yards, 18 touchdowns in 11 games of final college season). He entered the league as a 21-year-old second-round with a three-down skill set, and in the final six games of his first season he flashed with 708 yards on 146 combined carries and targets — but none of that matters now, because he suffered a torn Achilles before the 2022 season, and even though he returned to action last year in time for the playoffs he looked horrible on the field, ranking dead last among all running backs with -1.58 rushing yards over expected (per Tej Seth). The Achilles tear has typically been a career-shattering injury for running backs, and Rams HC Sean McVay has recently suggested that he plans to use Akers and backup Darrell Henderson in a committee, which makes Akers way too risky at his ADP.”
– Matthew Freedman
Josh Jacobs (LV): Consensus ADP – RB20 | 42nd Overall
“Well, Josh McDaniels might have just told us all we needed to know about Josh Jacobs. With starters like Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and company sitting out, Jacobs was running the rock. Jacobs finished with seven touches and 44 total yards in a game we all expected him to sit out. The Raiders already fired the signal flare into the sky by declining his fifth-year option, but this might be further proof the team views him and Zamir White on the same plane. Coupling Jacobs’ 2021 struggles to rank 36th in breakaway run rate and 37th in yards per touch and this preseason insanity; there’s no way he should be viewed as a top 24 running option in fantasy. ”
– Derek Brown
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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