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Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 11 (2022)

Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 11 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Pass Attempts

1) Kirk Cousins (MIN)

257

5.1

50

2) Josh Allen (BUF)

233

5.4

43

3) Patrick Mahomes (KC)

204

5.8

35

4) Dak Prescott (DAL)

182

4

46

5) Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

178

5.6

32

6) Marcus Mariota (ATL)

175

5.8

30

7) Tom Brady (TB)

170

5.9

29

8) Colt McCoy (ARI)

167

4.5

37

9) Trevor Lawrence (JAC)

165

4.1

40

10) Geno Smith (SEA)

164

5

33

In maybe the game of the year, Cousins and Allen racked up the fantasy points and the air yards. The duo combined for 490 air yards last week. Furthermore, they were two of the only three quarterbacks with over 200 air yards in Week 10. While both quarterbacks finished in the top three in pass attempts, their aDOTs remained in the top eight of qualifying quarterbacks. By comparison, Prescott had 46 pass attempts, the second-most last week. Yet, his aDOT ranked 17th among qualifying quarterbacks in Week 10. The matchup against each other helped, but Cousins and Allen should continue to be among the league leaders in air yards for the rest of the season.

The future Hall of Famer had his best air yards performance of the year in Week 10. Brady’s 5.9 aDOT was a season-high and almost a complete yard higher than his previous season-high in Week 1 (5.0). Furthermore, the veteran’s aDOT over the first nine games this year was 3.7, ranking outside the top-20 quarterbacks. Brady’s struggles have been partly because of his injured-plagued receiving corps. However, the veteran had a healthy trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones in Germany. The Buccaneers have their bye in Week 11, giving them time to make adjustments and get healthy. Did you count out Brady yet? Hopefully, you didn’t.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Justin Jefferson (MIN)

161

10.1

16

2) CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

109

7.3

15

3) Gabe Davis (BUF)

91

10.1

9

4) Stefon Diggs (BUF)

85

5.3

16

5) Christian Watson (GB)

81

10.1

8

6) Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE)

79

8.8

9

7) Christian Kirk (JAC)

78

6.5

12

8) Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN)

68

8.5

8

9) DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)

68

4.9

14

10) Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

64

9.1

7

Green Bay’s passing attack has been awful for most of the season. After Romeo Doubs suffered an ankle injury early in Week 9, Allen Lazard became the only Packers wide receiver fantasy players could trust. However, Watson took advantage of his career-high 54 snaps and eight targets on Sunday, scoring three touchdowns in the win. The second-round rookie only caught half his targets but averaged 20.3 air yards per reception. By comparison, Watson averaged only 2.3 targets per game and 1.2 air yards per reception before last week’s game. With Doubs out a few more weeks, maybe Watson is the late-season waiver-wire gem we hope he becomes.

The veteran Hopkins has played well since returning from his six-game suspension to start the year. He has a 6.9 aDOT and averaged 78.8 air yards per game. Furthermore, he has at least 68 air yards in all but one of those contests. However, Marquise Brown will return within the next few weeks, and unfortunately, fantasy players haven’t seen these two star receivers on the field together. Both have been Kyler Murray‘s go-to wide receiver at times this year, earning a massive target share in their games played. Fantasy players will have to see how things shake out once Brown returns.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Travis Kelce (KC)

42

6

7

2) Dalton Schultz (DAL)

41

5.1

8

3) Juwan Johnson (NO)

32

4.6

7

4) Dawson Knox (BUF)

31

5.2

6

5) Cade Otton (TB)

30

10

3

6) T.J. Hockenson (MIN)

30

3

10

7) Kylen Granson (IND)

28

7

4

8) Kyle Pitts (ATL)

27

3.4

8

9) Austin Hooper (TEN)

25

3.6

7

10) Pat Freiermuth (PIT)

25

3.6

7

What a difference having his franchise quarterback can make for Schultz. The veteran tight end has missed some time this season with a knee injury. However, he is healthy and returning to his star level of play. In the three games that Cooper Rush started this year, Schultz had only three air yards on eight targets. Meanwhile, the star tight end has 170 air yards on 29 targets in the four games with Prescott under center. More importantly, 118 of those 170 air yards (69.4%) have come over the past three weeks since Prescott’s return from a thumb injury. Only Lamb has more air yards during that span than Schultz.

Since joining the Vikings, Hockenson has been one of the better fantasy tight ends. Over the past two weeks, the veteran is the TE6 in half-point PPR scoring, averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he has 87 air yards and 19 targets during that span, both ranking top-two at the position. Hockenson has finished top-six among tight ends in air yards in both weeks since joining the Vikings. While Jefferson remains the focal point of the Minnesota passing attack, the veteran tight end has taken over the No. 2 role evidenced by the fact Hockenson has more targets and air yards than Adam Thielen since joining the team.

The Top Five Underperformers

Player

Air Yards

aDOT

Targets

1) Evan Engram (TE – JAC)

2

0.5

4

2) Trey McBride (TE – ARI)

5

5

1

3) Robert Woods (WR – TEN)

9

1.3

7

4) DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

14

1.8

8

5) K.J. Osborn (WR – MIN)

18

1.6

11

Arizona’s receiving corps has quietly been one of the more injury-plagued units this season. Greg Dortch is the only wide receiver to play all 10 games, so it’s no surprise Zach Ertz leads the team in targets this year. However, the veteran tight end will reportedly miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Ertz suffered the injury early in the game, playing only nine snaps. Unfortunately, McBride was a disappointment filling in. Despite playing 91% of the snaps, the rookie had only one reception and five air yards in the game. Hopefully, McBride will play better on Monday night now that he will have the week to prepare as the starter.

The Tennessee passing attack has been arguably the worst unit in the NFL this season. While Westbrook-Ikhine had a strong performance last week, catching five of his eight targets for 119 yards (68 air yards) and a pair of touchdowns, Woods once again disappeared. After the Titans traded away A.J. Brown, Woods was supposed to be the veteran to help offset the loss of the star receiver. Instead, he has been awful for fantasy players, averaging only 4.7 half-point PPR fantasy points and 20 air yards per game. Woods has failed to total more than 58 air yards in any good this season and fantasy players shouldn’t expect that to change anytime soon.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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