We’re down to four teams. This postseason has been filled with several exceptional football games, and this weekend should be no exception. Does the Brock Purdy fantasy ride continue into the Super Bowl? Does Jalen Hurts strengthen his case for MVP? Can Burrow bring the Bengals back to the big game for two consecutive seasons? Will Mahomes and his one good leg be able to will the Chiefs to victory?
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NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Conference Championships
It will all be on display this weekend. Let’s dive into the DFS plays to jam into your lineups. Good luck, fam, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this week.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- PHI -2.5, O/U 46
- 49ers vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Jalen Hurts: Hurts looked healthy last week, completing 66.6% of his passes while rushing for 34 yards on nine carries in a game where the Eagles dominated the Giants. Hurts has continued to play down the stretch run. Since Week 13, he is eighth in yards per attempt, tenth in big-time throw rate, and 14th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 15, the 49ers have been an average pass defense, ranking 23rd in passing yards per game, 16th in EPA per drop back, and 16th in explosive pass rate allowed. They have also ranked 21st in pressure rate, so Hurts should have ample time in the pocket to find open receivers. Hurts carries arguably the highest ceiling among the quarterbacks on this slate. Hurts leads the pack with three games of a least 37 DK points (Mahomes two, Burrow one).
|Player||Rush attempts||Routes||Red zone carries|
Christian McCaffrey: Last week, despite getting banged up late in the game, McCaffrey played 67% of the snaps with 16 touches, 57 total yards, and a score. He split the red zone work with Mitchell but dwarfed him in the passing game with an 81.8% route run rate and 30.8% target share. Unless we get any reports of him being limited, he should be expected to play 70% of the snaps or higher. McCaffrey ranks 16th in evaded tackles, fourth in yards created, and third in yards per route run. Since Week 15, the Eagles have been 18th in rushing yards per game, 21st in EPA per rush, and 15th in explosive run rate allowed. Over their last four games, Philadelphia has been 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
On the field at the same time with Brock Purdy under center…
Team Target share:
Deebo Samuel 30.4%
Brandon Aiyuk 18.8%
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) January 24, 2023
Deebo Samuel: Since Week 19, Samuel has led the team with a 29.6% target share while ranking second to Brandon Aiyuk in air yard share (23.8%). Samuel has been targeted on 28% of his routes, with 3.07 yards per route run. He leads all pass catchers in weighted opportunity in this two-game sample. Samuel is my favorite 49er this week in mini stacks or as a runback to an Eagles stack. Samuel will run about 68% of his routes against Darius Slay (since Week 15: 65% catch rate, 125.8 passer rating) and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (88% catch rate, 123.0 passer rating).
Jauan Jennings: Over the last two games, Jennings has had a 13% target share, 25% end zone target share, and 19.9% air yard share. He has mustered a 53% route run rate and 1.91 yards per route run. Jennings is viable in a game stack, large field tournament, or MME. Jennings will run about 54% of his routes against Gardner-Johnson.
A.J. Brown: Brown got dinged up last week, but he still saw a 25% target share, 50% end zone target share, and 43.8% air yard share (88.5% route run rate). Brown ranks seventh in target share, second in end zone target share, and fourth in air yard share with 2.81 yards per route run (second-best, minimum 50 targets). The 49ers might be first in DVOA against short passing, but they are 24th in deep passing DVOA. Since Week 13, Brown has led the team with 18 deep targets (Smith, 12). Brown will run about 84% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (66.7% catch rate, 106.0 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (65.2% catch rate, 81.5 passer rating). Brown has taken over as the team’s leading option against zone coverage. Since Week 14, the 49ers have utilized zone on 68-69% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, Brown has seen 58.2% of his volume against zone, ranking 16th in PFF receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets).
DeVonta Smith is tied with A.J. Brown at a 28% target share after last week's 43% performance against the Giants.
It is extremely hard to demand that many looks across from a high-end talent like Brown.
The Eagles have one of the top WR duos, and Smith's outlook is fantastic.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) January 24, 2023
DeVonta Smith: Since Week 16, Smith has led the team with a 35.5% target share, 57.1% end zone target share, and 2.58 yards per route run. He’s been targeted on 31% of his routes with a 0.74 weighted opportunity. Since Week 12, Smith ranks 20th in PFF receiving grade (51.4% of his target volume against zone) and 29th in yards per route run against zone coverage (minimum ten zone targets). He is a stacking option with Hurts whether you single, double, or triple stack (onslaught) with him. Smith ranks 19th in deep targets and 18th in open rate among wide receivers. Smith will run about 72% of his routes against Ward and Lenoir.
George Kittle: With Brock Purdy tossing passes, Kittle has had a 22.6% target share and 50% end zone target share (24% air yard share). Zooming in even further since Samuel has returned during the same stretch, Kittle still has maintained an 18.9% target share and 33.3% end zone target share. Since Week 18, he has produced 2.24 yards per route run while being targeted on 19% of his routes. Kittle hasn’t seen any red zone targets over the last two games, but he has seven over his last five games. Since Week 15, the Eagles have been 23rd in catch rate and 26th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends. Over their last four contests, they have also been 28th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends from the slot. Since Week 18, Kittle has been second on the team in slot snaps.
Dallas Goedert should be mentioned in the same breath as:
ELITE. ELITE. ELITE. Tight End.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) January 22, 2023
Dallas Goedert: Since returning to the lineup, Goedert has had a 17.4% target share, 14.3% end zone target share, 83% route run rate, and 1.77 yards per route run. Goedert has five red zone targets in his last two games. He remains an elite tight end in the efficiency department ranking third in yards per route run and seventh in fantasy points per route run. Since Week 15, the 49ers have been 27th in catch rate, 24th in receiving yards per game, and 23rd in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Goedert is a viable stacking partner with Hurts, even a skinny stack. He’s also part of why two tight-end lineups are in play again this week.
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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.