Most players shouldn’t be entirely avoided in fantasy leagues. Still, the average draft position (ADP) is steep for the following trio of picks. Two forthcoming running backs are top-30 selections, with blemishes that make them poor investments. The final running back is a top-50 selection but inflated his 2022 numbers in one eruption. Thus, gamers are advised to avoid the three running backs at their present ADPs.

• Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
• Underdog Best Ball Strategy
• Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
• Best Ball Roster Construction Strategy

Running Backs to Avoid in 2023

Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ): 22.8 Underdog Fantasy ADP and RB8

Have gamers learned nothing about running backs coming back from a torn ACL? Sure, Adrian Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards in 2012 after tearing his ACL on December 24, 2011. Yet, he’s the exception to the rule.

The recent track record for the first season for a running back after they tore their ACL wasn’t encouraging. Matthew Betz had an article for The Fantasy Footballers published last August that looked in-depth at recent examples. I strongly suggest checking out his piece.

However, it’s worth pointing out some examples here, too. First, Dalvin Cook tore his ACL in early October 2017. He returned for Week 1 the following year. Unfortunately, he ran for only 78 yards on 23 carries in two games, was out in Week 3 because of a hamstring injury, had 20 rushing yards on 10 attempts in Week 4 and was out from Week 5 through Week 8 after re-aggravating his hamstring injury. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Cook averaged a career-low 55.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry in 2018. Further, per our Fantasy Football Leaders, Cook was the RB17 in half-point point-per-reception (PPR) points per game (PPG) among running backs who played at least 10 games that year.

Second, Rashaad Penny tore his ACL and suffered additional damage in December 2019. Sadly, he didn’t debut until Week 15 in 2020. Penny was also a shell of himself. He averaged 3.7 rushes per game, 11.3 rushing yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry and 0.8 half-PPR PPG.

Third, Saquon Barkley had his ACL injury and more knee damage in late October 2020. He debuted in Week 1 of 2021 and was dreadful before he suffered an ankle injury in Week 5. Barkley had 12.5 rushes per game, 45.6 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry (4.5 yards per carry in his career and at least 4.4 yards per carry in his other three healthy seasons). Barkley was RB31 in half-PPR PPG out of backs who played at least 10 games in 2021, dismissing injury-abbreviated seasons for Derrick Henry (eight games), Christian McCaffrey (seven), Chris Carson (four) and Penny (nine). Even D’Onta Foreman (eight games) and Duke Johnson (four) had more PPG than Barkley.

J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are two more data points since Betz’s insightful piece was published. The good news is both of Baltimore’s runners were efficient. Unfortunately, however, there was bad news. Dobbins had significant additional damage and didn’t debut until Week 3 (September 25, 2022), despite tearing his ACL in late August. Dobbins also had a procedure to clean up his knee after Week 6.

Edwards tore his ACL in early September of 2021 and didn’t debut until Week 7 (October 23, 2022). The delay of his return seemed to be a wise decision since he was effective after rejoining the Ravens.

Now, Hall is working his way back from tearing his ACL and suffering meniscus damage in late October. He could be back for the season opener. However, that’s not guaranteed. Gamers aren’t baking an early-season absence or ineffectiveness while shaking the rust off into his ADP. Hall was RB8 in half-point PPR PPG last year, and his ADP among running backs is identical to that production. Hall might be an exception to the rule and return without a hiccup. By the fantasy playoffs, he could also shake off the rust and be a game-changing talent. Nevertheless, his ADP doesn’t account for the possibility of the sophomore being less efficient in his first season back from knee surgery. So, a second-round pick is far too rich to spend on Hall.

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): 27.5 Underdog Fantasy ADP and RB10

Chubb was the RB6 in half-point PPR PPG and total points last year. Yet, he largely flopped after Deshaun Watson returned in Week 13 from his suspension.

From Week 13 through Week 17, Chubb was tied for RB29 with Rachaad White and Brian Robinson in half-point PPR PPG (9.5). According to The 33rd Team, Chubb was ninth in rushing yards per game (81) among running backs and had 4.8 yards per carry from Week 13 through Week 18. So, he was a rock-solid runner. However, Chubb averaged only 1.7 receptions and 14.5 receiving yards per game and had one touchdown.

Chubb needs to score touchdowns and dominate on the ground to finish as a top-10 running back since he’s an underwhelming passing-game option. Chubb has averaged only 1.6 receptions and 13.2 receiving yards per game in his career. He had career highs for receptions per game (2.3) and receiving yards per game (17.4) in 2019, but last year’s 1.6 receptions and 14.1 receiving yards per game were his second-best marks.

Duke Johnson and David Johnson had modest receiving production playing with Watson, but neither talented pass-catching back even cracked 3.0 receptions per game. Finally, Watson’s struggles as a passer in 2022 were alarming, and he’s capable of vulturing rushing touchdowns in scoring territory, creating multiple risks for Chubb’s floor and ceiling in 2023. As a result, Chubb’s upside doesn’t warrant an early third-round pick, and gamers shouldn’t consider him until the fourth round.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): 41.3 Underdog Fantasy ADP and RB14

Mixon clowned the Panthers in Week 9. He rumbled for 153 yards and four touchdowns on 22 rushes. In addition, Mixon torched them for four receptions, 58 receiving yards and one touchdown. In all, he amassed 53.1 half-point PPR points that week.

Sadly, that was a significant outlier in an otherwise lousy campaign. Without Week 9, he had 188 rushes, 661 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 70 targets, 56 receptions, 383 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Mixon averaged 50.8 rushing yards per game, 3.52 yards per carry, 5.4 targets per game, 4.3 receptions per game had four total touchdowns in non-Week 9 games.

Mixon had 27.2% of his fantasy points in 2022 in Week 9. He averaged only 10.9 half-point PPR PPG in the other fantasy weeks, which would have been RB25 out of running backs who played at least 10 games in the fantasy season. It’s unfair to handwave away his best game of the year entirely. Nevertheless, Mixon is closer to a borderline RB2 than a fringe RB1.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.