The 2023 NFL season is approaching, and that means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.
Knowing who to target is one of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but sometimes there’s a reason a player is ‘falling’ down draft boards. You need to know when to scoop up value and when to move on. Here are a few of my top players to avoid based on price in 2023 fantasy football drafts. And here is the full list of players he’s avoiding entering 2023 fantasy football drafts.
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Andrew Erickson’s Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are players I’m avoiding in fantasy football drafts.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) | ECR: RB21, 45th overall
While Dameon Pierce had a promising rookie season in 2022 and currently holds an ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) as the RB21, there are factors to consider that may suggest he is overrated for the 2023 fantasy season.
Uncertain Role in a New Offensive System: The Texans have a new coaching staff in place, which adds an element of uncertainty to Pierce’s role in the offense. With the arrival of Devin Singletary, who presents a credible threat to Pierce’s workload, it’s unclear how the backfield distribution will unfold. Pierce’s status as a bell cow and his involvement as a receiver are both up in the air, making it difficult to project consistent fantasy production. A lack of receiving is particularly problematic should the Texans find themselves trailing in many of their games. Ultimately, I’m not afraid of missing out on a two-down grinder back for the Houston Texans.
Dependence on Volume and Concerns about Durability: Pierce’s success in 2022 was largely predicated on the volume of carries he received. However, as the season progressed, he showed signs of breaking down and eventually suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Relying solely on volume as the main source of fantasy production can be risky, especially if Pierce’s workload is not guaranteed or if he faces durability issues.
Competition from Devin Singletary: The addition of Devin Singletary to the Texans’ backfield further clouds Pierce’s fantasy outlook. While Singletary may not completely supplant Pierce as the team’s lead rusher, his presence and potential involvement in the passing game could limit his opportunities and hinder his fantasy value. Singletary is better than any other RB Pierce was competing with last season in Houston between JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone and Dare Ogunbowale.
And Singletary has shown that he can carry large amounts of volume at the NFL level after finishing last season 15th in opportunity share (59%) despite the presence of second-round rookie James Cook. Pierce earned a 60% opportunity share last season.
Furthermore, Singletary’s pass-blocking abilities also add another dimension to his potential role, potentially affecting Pierce’s playing time on passing downs.
Draft Capital: Pierce was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. And unfortunately, history has not been kind to RBs with Pierce’s rookie-year profile. The list of Day 3 rookie RBs that rushed for 900-plus yards but were limited to fewer than 200 receiving yards/30 receptions includes Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Elijah Mitchell, Zac Stacy, Alfred Morris, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary and Ronald Moore. The vast majority of them failed to live up to their rookie year expectations.
Considering these factors, fantasy managers should approach Dameon Pierce with caution. While he showed promise in his rookie season, the uncertainty surrounding his role/upside in a below-average Texans’ offense, the potential competition from Devin Singletary, and concerns about his reliance on volume and durability raise doubts about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy production.
In Pierce’s draft range, I’d much rather prefer Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Jerry Jeudy, Christian Watson or Calvin Ridley.
Tee Higgins (CIN) | ECR: WR12, 27th overall
Despite being regarded as the ECR fantasy WR12, there are valid reasons to consider Tee Higgins overrated for the upcoming 2023 season.
Two-Year Sample Size: With a two-year sample size of playing alongside Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, we have a clearer picture of Higgins’ performance. In games where both Burrow and Chase were healthy, Higgins has averaged fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in half PPR. This level of production raises concerns about his ability to consistently deliver low-end fantasy numbers while playing alongside Chase.
Impact of Ja’Marr Chase: When Ja’Marr Chase was absent from the lineup (limited to just four games), Higgins’ per-game average jumped to 15.5 fantasy points. Based on his performance with Chase in the lineup, Higgins’ 11.8 points per game would have finished as the WR19 last season and WR23 in 2021. Considering these numbers, it’s reasonable to question whether Higgins truly warrants his current ECR WR12 ranking.
Points per Game Ranking: In terms of points per game, Higgins finished as the WR20 last season. While he has shown flashes of WR1 fantasy potential, his overall performance places him outside the top-tier wide receiver category. This raises doubts about his ability to consistently produce at the level expected of a WR12.
Taking these factors into account, Tee Higgins may be overrated as the ECR fantasy WR12 for the 2023 season. His two-year sample size suggests that his production is relatively modest, especially when Ja’Marr Chase is on the field. With an average of fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in those situations, Higgins’ current ranking appears inflated.
Considering his points per game ranking from last season and the potential impact of Chase, fantasy managers should approach Higgins with caution and consider him more as a mid-WR2 option rather than a top-12 wide receiver.
Per the FantasyPros WR boom-or-bust report, Higgins finished with the fourth-highest WR2 finish rate (top-24) in 2022.
In Higgin’s draft range, I prefer Mark Andrews, Cooper, Metcalf and Olave.
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