Last season was a prime example of how league winners are often not the players taken with the first several picks. Players with championship-clinching upside can be snagged at any point in the draft. The main issue is identifying who those high-ceiling individuals are. That’s where our featured experts come in. Each has chosen an early-round and later-round tailback they think will reach their lofty upside.

Last season was a prime example of how league winners are often not the players taken with the first several picks. Players with championship-clinching upside can be snagged at any point in the draft. The main issue is identifying who those high-ceiling individuals are. That’s where our featured experts come in. Each has chosen an early-round and later-round tailback they think will reach their lofty upside.

Remember, none of the players mentioned here are a lock to win you a title. They are just the guys who have that upside within their range of outcomes while also boasting a decent chance of achieving that status.

• Identifying Rookie WR1s & WR2s | 6 Wide Receivers Most Likely to Become WR1s
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Later-Round League-Winning Running Backs

What RB outside the top 20 in our consensus half-PPR RB ADP has the most league-winning upside?

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)

“By all indications, Javonte Williams’ recovery from major knee surgery is on a best-case track. He is not on PUP in camp and is only sharing the backfield with the mundane likes of Samaje Perine. Sean Payton is already envisioning Javonte as his next iteration of prime Alvin Kamara, which should get the blood pumping to the extremities at his potential this season in Denver. Even with a return to peak form a bit into the schedule to be expected, Javonte should obliterate his RB27 ADP.”
– Bo McBrayer (FantasyPros)

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)

“Khalil Herbert is #goodatfootball. He has played eight games over the last 2 seasons when he has seen 13-plus touches. The Bears RB1 has averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) in those contests. Fantasy RB1 numbers. Had it not been for a mid-season injury, he could have EASILY taken over his backfield last season from David Montgomery (who Bears were happy to let walk). His discounted price in an ambiguous backfield is 100% worth buying into. Because if Herbert wins the RB1 job, he’s going to be a league-winner.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“I’m going to keep believing in what I see from Khalil Herbert, which is exceptional burst and contact balance. He posted six weeks as a top 25 back last season when David Montgomery was banged up, and he ranked 12th in rushing EPA on the year. Montgomery is gone, but the Bears brought in D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson to fill out the backfield. However, while Foreman’s best ability is his size and power, Herbert is the more talented and more complete back. Now I just hope his coaching staff is smart enough to see what they have in the third-year back.”
– Matt Barbato (BettingPros)

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

“Cam Akers (RB22) led the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks of the 2022 regular season and ranked RB4 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. The 24-year-old Akers is now two years removed from the torn Achilles that cost him most of the 2021 season. Akers has little competition for carries, and the Rams’ 2023 schedule is chock full of teams that had below-average run defenses in 2022. Akers was a decent pass catcher during his college career at Florida State, and if he gets the same sort of usage in the passing game that Todd Gurley was getting 5-6 years ago when he was playing a workhorse role for the Rams, Akers could be a top-five fantasy RB.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“I might die alone on this hill, but Cam Akers is a steal as the 22nd running back off the board. Last year was rocky for him. However, he was the RB2 over the final four weeks, averaging 18.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Akers averaged 19 rushing attempts for 103 yards per game during those four contests while forcing a missed tackle on 22.7% of his rushing attempts. Meanwhile, the Rams have an underwhelming offense outside of Cooper Kupp. Don’t be surprised when Akers has an RB1 season in a contract year.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“I am targeting both RB 22 Cam Akers and RB 23 James Conner in all of my fantasy football league drafts. Both of these players are presently being drafted in round 5 of fantasy football league drafts. Target these players if you draft either a Tight End or Quarterback in any of your first 4 rounds of your league drafts. Both Akers and Connor are no longer shiny pennies, and I see that as an opportunity to draft either of these players at a discount. Akers is only 23 years old and in the last year of his contract. Both the Rams and Akers have an incentive to have a very productive season. James Connor can opt out of his contract at the end of this season, so there is also an incentive to run Connor as much as possible. Connor comes with a higher injury risk than Akers, so I would draft Akers over Connor if they are both on the board in round 5 of your fantasy football league drafts.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

“After emerging out of Sean McVay’s doghouse, Cam Akers was the RB4 from Week 14 through the fantasy playoffs. Akers set career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns and finished the 2022 season strong with three straight 100-yard rushing games. Akers has minimal competition for touches in what should be a bounce-back season for the Rams’ offense. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp’s return allows Akers to have league-winning upside in his contract season. ”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“I’ll keep chasing James Cook’s league-winning upside even though people are starting to catch on. Cook is a talented back with second-round NFL draft capital in one of the league’s best offenses. Last season he ranked first in explosive run rate (minimum 70 carries) and 16th in yards after contact per attempt while also flashing as a receiver (per Fantasy Points Data). Among all running backs with at least 25 targets last year, he was third in target per route run rate and 12th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Talented players in high-powered offenses are the chef’s kiss. Pucker up for Cook in 2023. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

“The Buffalo Bills drafted James Cook to be their featured back. He is shifty and quick and in a top 5 offense. He will take a giant step in year two and leap into the top 12. At RB30, he will be a bargain that can take teams to the promised land thanks to his pass-catching abilities.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)

“Instead of discussing guys I have talked about ad nauseam this offseason, Alexander Mattison and De’Von Achane included, how about someone that is an injury away from the big time? While I hate to project injuries, we need to discuss Christian McCaffrey. Despite playing 17 games a year ago, how are fantasy managers so willing to trust him again after playing a combined 10 games in 2020 and 2021? Enter Elijah Mitchell, who would be a top 15 weekly play by default in this 49ers offense if CMC were to go down. For anyone interested in McCaffrey, you have to be in on Mitchell. But if you don’t have CMC, Mitchell is still a massive lottery ticket that could cash big time.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

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