Welcome to my comprehensive analysis of the 2024 NFL Draft’s Round 1, where dreams are made for 32 bright-eyed rookies, and the chessboard of professional football is reset with fresh, ambitious talent.
In this featured piece recapping Round 1, I will delve into the immediate impact of the newly minted rookies and how their arrival alters the dynamics for veteran players within their teams.
From soaring stocks of rookies poised to make a significant mark in their debut seasons to veterans who might find their positions threatened or bolstered by these young additions, we’ll explore who emerged as the winners and losers of this pivotal day in the NFL calendar.
Join me as we break down the changing landscapes of NFL squads and assess the potential shifts in strategy and performance prompted by this year’s Round 1 draft selections.
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Dynasty Startup Draft Primers
- Dynasty Draft Kit
- Thor’s Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps
2024 NFL Draft Round 1 Winners
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
It’s hard to argue against Caleb Williams‘ great landing spot with the veteran weapons he has at his disposal, including D.J. Moore, D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet. And the Bears were not finished improving Williams’ first-year prospects with the selection of Washington WR Rome Odunze as the ninth overall selection.
The USC product’s off-script playmaking ability is apparent, and that makes him deadly when paired with his elite production from a clean pocket. This past season, Williams posted PFF’s highest grade operating from a clean pocket.
No Bears QB has ever thrown for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs. I hardly think it’s a stretch to see Williams hit the 4K passing yards mark in Year 1. His passing yardage prop opened at 3,400.5 passing yads on FanDuel Sportsbook.
As for fantasy football specifically, I’d be excited about Williams and his upside with rushing TDs.
He is a deadly threat near the goal line. 27 rushing TDs in 2.5 seasons as a starter at the college level.
Rome Odunze (WR – CHI)
I’ll stick with the Chicago Bears and break down Rome Odunze. For me, it’s easy to pinpoint Odunze as a winner in a dynasty but more of a loser in redraft formats. Being attached at the hip to Williams for the long term is an ideal situation. But the target competition Odunze will face between D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet will be a tough task to overcome.
Many will compare Odunze’s situation to what happened in Seattle last season. Jaxon Smith-Nijgba was drafted as a plucky rookie first-rounder on a depth chart with two established WRs atop the depth chart. Interestingly enough, the OC last year for Seattle was Shane Waldron – is the new OC for the Bears. But part of JSN’s struggles was his “slot-only” designation, which won’t be the case with Odunze.
Still, on the other hand, expecting a rookie QB to fuel Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Odunze to fantasy-friendly seasons in his first year will be a tough bet to make.
It’s important to note that even after JSN’s underwhelming rookie year, he still maintained high dynasty value after the season. That will be a similar case with Odunze, even if he doesn’t blow up in Year 1. Injuries can also happen, and I am confident that with Odunze’s abilities as a clear alpha he will step up when called upon.
And that could “hurt” the likes of Moore and Allen.
To be clear, Moore will be my Bears WR1 entering next season. Allen, I am more concerned about, given that he NEEDS volume to win. Odunze-as a volume-earner-will make it tougher for Allen to flirt with double-digit targets. Meanwhile, Moore can do the most with his YAC/vertical ability to be uber-efficient with defenses concerned about the other Bears’ WRs.
Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS)
Jayden Daniels played 5 seasons of college ball. 55 games in total. Brock Purdy played 48 games at Iowa State. I was not surprised that Daniels was the selection for the Commanders at No. 2 overall after a 2023 Heisman Trophy campaign. The regime values experience and Daniels offered that more than Drake Maye.
With Daniel’s ability to add value as a rusher and years of experience under his belt, he can thrive in a familiar Kliff Kingsbury system with underrated weapons already entrenched at the skill positions. In 55 games in college, Daniels rushed for over 3,300 yards – 60 rushing yards per game. Last year’s third quarterback selected, Anthony Richardson, also averaged 60 rushing yards per game in the college ranks.
Among the six rookie QBs, Daniels has the best chance of finishing as a fantasy QB1 in 2024. He went up three spots in my 1QB rookie rankings.
And with Daniels’ great deep ball, we could finally see Terry McLaurin break out of the fantasy WR2 quagmire. And he likely won’t cost the price of a fantasy WR2 on draft day.
However, a mobile QB is not ideal for pass-catching RBs like Austin Ekeler. After a horrible 2023 season, Ekeler is trending in the wrong direction. I’ll take my chances with Brian Robinson instead, accepting he won’t be super involved in the passing game.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
I opened up the offseason extremely hesitant to rank Marvin Harrison Jr. too high, to the dismay of my fellow fantasy analysts at FantasyPros. But every time I opened up my 2024 rankings, he just kept moving up and up.
With him entrenched officially as the Arizona Cardinals WR1, he offers a super-high floor with targets and high-end quarterback play in his grasp. It’s hard to see him failing in any capacity, and it’s just a matter of how many TDs he scores that will likely influence his final output. He won’t come cheap for the reasons I listed, which might be the only reason I don’t get as much exposure to him in 2024 redraft leagues.
But similar to how the Cardinals didn’t overthink him as the fourth overall pick, don’t overthink Harrison as the 1.01 in 1QB rookie formats.
MHJ is also a major boost for Kyler Murray‘s fantasy stock. The Cardinals QB could easily return to the top-5 in scoring with his blend of rushing and upgraded personnel.
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN)
The best landing spot aside from Caleb Willaims to Chicago was J.J. McCarthy‘s landing spot in Minnesota. An unmatched QB infrastructure is in place with weapons as far as the eyes can see. McCarthy is great for Justin Jefferson to return as a top-2 WR in redraft and in dynasty formats, behind only Ja’Marr Chase in my rankings.
I’d expect McCarthy to match or even exceed Williams/Daniels in terms of team success and post strong passing numbers. He might not be a true fantasy difference-maker without rushing, but can he be a fringe backend fantasy QB1 in full Brock Purdy fashion? Yes sir.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
Malike Nabers can step in from Day 1 as the No. 1 WR in the offense. Malik Naber’s explosive skillset as a YAC monster makes me less concerned about the potential shoddy QB play. Still, the unknown about QB long-term does present Nabers with more “bust” potential, cementing him firmly as WR2 in the class for me behind Harrison Jr.
However, given the overall negativity around the New York Giants’ landing spot, I’ll likely have a ton of exposure to Nabers in redraft formats. OC Brian Daboll can run his offense through Nabers, with a supporting cast filled with just beta players: a retired Darren Waller, 100 slot WRs, and Devin Singletary.
Who do you think is going to get the ball?
We saw Josh Allen take a major step when he got Stefon Diggs. I think we could see a healthy Daniel Jones recapture some of his brighter moments in a make-or-break year with Nabers at his disposal.
This puts Jones back in late-round QB territory, given his rushing upside, which he will have no choice but to leverage.
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC)
I’m not going to overthink this one. Sometimes, a rookie just lands in the exact ideal landing spot that we all hope and pray will happen. And that’s how I view Xavier Worthy landing with Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs. Reminds me of De’Von Achane landing in Miami last season. It just fits like a glove.
I’ve been super high on the Texas WR even before he broke the 40-yard dash record. I compared him to a better version of Marquise Brown – who the Chiefs just signed in free agency – albeit to a one-year deal. Brown has never been the bill of health. And we don’t know how many games Rashee Rice will miss with his ongoing legal situation.
Worthy has moved up to my WR4 in my rookie rankings.
I also want to preach this: Don’t let your love or excitement about Rice get in the way of how you feel about Worthy. Again, off-field issues aside, the Chiefs drafting Worthy (trading up) signals some concern about Rice.
I fell hook, line, and sinker in a similar way to Elijah Moore with the Jets. I loved his rookie year but didn’t consider what it meant when the Jets proceeded to draft Garrett Wilson the next year.
The future is now in KC, and his name is Xavier Worthy. In my rookie rankings, he’s moved up to 4th overall from 7th pre-draft.
Ricky Pearsall (WR – SF)
Slick Rick hit the jackpot Thursday night. Earned first-round draft capital in an offense that schemes WRs in the best way and takes advantage of their strengths.
Still, I am somewhat skeptical of how high Pearsall’s ceiling is.
As I wrote in his rookie preview, “Pearsall’s experience as a fifth-year senior and refined game makes him a high-floor player that can get hit the get-go from Day 1, but he may not have any more ceiling to unlock unless he lands with a truly elite NFL passer.”
The 49ers are in a “win-now” mode so they cannot afford to draft a WR that needs to develop. Pearsall can step in on Day 1 and be productive, especially if and when they trade Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk.
I like him more for the 2024 season than I do in the long term. That being said, what he does this season will influence his dynasty stock the most. I also want to point out that downgrading from Samuel/Aiyuk to Pearsall isn’t ideal for Brock Purdy but benefits George Kittle and the leftover SF WR that stays in the Bay Area.
In the rookie ECR Post-Round 1, Pearsall climbed up from 19th to 13th in the rookie rankings.
Xavier Legette (WR – CAR)
I’m very torn on whether Xavier Legette is a true “winner” after the Panthers traded back into the first round to draft him. He’s part of a brand-new offense that whiffed on Jonathan Mingo as a similar boom-or-bust prospect last season. But that was the previous regime, and there’s just something about this new coaching staff that has me encouraged about Legette’s potential in 2024 and beyond.
Don’t let the Mingo pick persuade you to think Carolina is a bad team for a rookie WR. It’s still a solid spot for a young player to see targets in an offense that should be much better than its 2023 form.
I don’t think it really matters for Diontae Johnson, as he will be the target leader on the Panthers offense. They are two completely different types of WR archetypes.
Legette’s game is tied to designed plays and yards after the catch, which I think new HC Dave Canales will take advantage of. He’s gone from 17th in my rookie rankings to 12th overall. In the overall rookie post-round 1 ECR, Legette moved up from 23rd to 9th overall.
I love the overall staff that Canales brought in, with many joining him from the Buccaneers – a team that drastically played above expectations. Joe Gilbert was the Buccaneers’ OL coach last year and got the most out of the unit the team did not invest much money into. Will Harriger was hired as the QB coach after stints in Dallas (2023) and USC (2022), where we saw some impressive QB performances from Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams. It’s early, but I want to be “higher” on Carolina than the market heading into next season.
The upgrades at OL and WR remind us not to write off Bryce Young after his no-win situation during his rookie season.
Will Levis (QB – TEN)
Will Levis received more help across the OL with JC Latham; however, he’s more of an RT than LT.
Still, the Titans are doing their best to surround their big-armed second-year QB with as much as possible, to figure out whether he can be their franchise QB. Latham is a mauler in the run game and should help this OL run the football in the post-Derrick Henry era between Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
The Bengals QB was plagued by injuries a season ago. They needed another big body up front to protect Joe Burrow, which is what they need to have success. Amarius Mims can start at RT if Trent Brown gets hurt. I love the Bengals in fantasy football and in NFL Futures. The Mims selection makes me even more bullish that this team is all-in on making a run.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
The Chargers added Joe Alt to help protect Justin Herbert. A pass-catcher would have been ideal, but keeping Herbert healthy has been a big issue for L.A. the last few years. The Chargers foregoing WR in Round 1 gives Quentin Johnston another chance to produce in Year 2, while veteran Joshua Palmer looks like a super value as a late-round WR selection. This year’s Nico Collins? Stay tuned.
2024 NFL Draft Round 1 Losers
Drake Maye (QB – NE)
As a real-life Patriots fan, I am thrilled. As a fantasy football analyst, I am terrified. New England was always pegged as the worst landing spot for a rookie QB not named New York. And it’s still not amazing, given the needs at WR/LT.
With Jacoby Brissett entrenched as the bridge QB, this might be a longer process than many impatient fantasy owners would want.
For a rebuilding team in dynasty, you want Maye for the long-term upside. I know I will. But for 2024 redraft formats, you are much better off going in another direction than with Maye.
The former UNC QB went from 13th to 19th overall in the rookie dynasty ECR (1 QB league) after Round 1.
Kirk Cousins (QB – ATL)
The shocker of the night was the Falcons drafting Michael Penix Jr. at eighth overall. I won’t get into all the semantics for what is essentially a very expensive insurance policy taken out by Atlanta. Again, Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear, and the Falcons offense was the healthiest in the NFL last season.
They won’t have as many injuries in 2024. So, for all the people that ripping this pick, be sure to ask them how they feel when Penix steps in and wins games for Atlanta in 2024.
The Falcons’ biggest need was QB. And they doubled down in free agency and the draft to make sure QB play wouldn’t hold them back. I think their roster was in a position to take a luxury pick. He also fits the offense that Zac Robinson is going to bring in.
Considering the Raiders might have taken him at 13, they weren’t in a scenario where they could have waited to pull the trigger on Penix.
Still, it’s weird that Cousins wasn’t debriefed, especially since the Falcons took visits from Penix during the pre-draft process. That’s why I bet them to draft Penix at +3000, as discussed in my 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card.
It’s not ideal for Cousins’ commitment long-term in dynasty or for him to possibly lose the job to Penix in 2024. That guy has a rocket arm, and any delay with the Achilles could open an opportunity for Penix to seize the QB1 role.
I will say that I love the Penix move for the offensive pieces in Atlanta. I was very concerned that a potential Cousins injury could derail Bijan Robinson, Drake London, etc. But with Penix entrenched as the ultimate backup plan, I feel so much better drafting the Falcons in 2024, knowing that they are going to get hit by the injury bug.
Bo Nix (QB – DEN)
Denver took the last quarterback with the 12th-overall pick in what was a massive reach with Oregon’s Bo Nix. The QB check-down artist was severely overdrafted because Denver had to draft a QB. But with no second-round picks, the Broncos had to take him in the first round.
It’s great for RB targets in Denver, but aside from that, I am not excited about this Broncos offense. Case in point, ECR dropped Nix from 31 to 45th overall in 1QB leagues after being selected by the Broncos at 12th overall.
Marvin Mims is slated for an expanded role, in what I would hope could be Nix’s new version of Troy Franklin.
So, Mims is a low-key winner, with Nix going 12th, presuming he’s an “upgrade” over Jarrett Stidham/Zach Wilson. And Denver doesn’t have the ammunition to add any more pass-catchers of note, forcing Mims into extended playing time.
Brock Bowers (TE – LV)
Michael Mayer, we hardly knew ye.
The Raiders drafted the top pass-catcher available on the board in tight end Brock Bowers, which I don’t hate from a real-life perspective. But are we really honestly convinced that new LV OC Luke Getsy is going to create an offense that takes advantage of Bowers as a true big slot while feeding WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers? Let alone in an offense that HC Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball 30-plus times per game? With Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew at quarterback?
We know that tight ends can be the most landing-dependent offensive pieces. Frankly, I just hate the spot with LV. Simply put, rookie tight ends need good QBs to produce.
Mayer was viewed as a Round 1 tight end and did nothing as a rookie tight end last year. Even if Bowers is superior, is it really enough to convince us he can have a Sam LaPorta-esque season? I am not convinced.
Bowers is the biggest loser for me in my rookie rankings, falling four spots from 4th to 8th overall.
Gabe Davis (WR – JAC)
Gabe Davis signed a free-agent contract with the Jaguars just to see them draft a better, younger and more explosive version in Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
I think Thomas would be the favored perimeter downfield target for Trevor Lawrence, with Christian Kirk/Evan Engram eating up the short-to-intermediate targets.
If the former LSU WR can absorb the role vacated by Calvin Ridley – nearly 1,800 air yards, 22.5% target share, 36% air yards share, NFL leader in EZ targets, WR10 in expected fantasy points per game – Thomas will be one of the best rookies WR targets in fantasy football. However, this might be accompanied by a lack of consistency – given that Thomas doesn’t project to be a target alpha in an offense with so many playmakers. But there’s high-end splash week potential with Thomas in Jacksonville.
Recall, that Lawrence has made guys like Kirk and Zay Jones fantasy-relevant the past two seasons.
It’s also great for the Jaguars QB to return as a low-end fantasy QB1 after falling short of expectations in 2023.
The additions of Thomas and Davis likely mark the end of Jones in DUVAL County.
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