Fantasy Games Won (FGW): Who Won & Lost Week 2?

In the NFL, it’s always a talking point whether 0-2 teams are “done” or not. Given how wins and losses change the atmosphere and cultures of football teams, those discussions make sense. Success breeds success, etc.

Now, your fantasy team doesn’t have a “culture”, per se. Unless you’re a serious high roller, I don’t think your players are even meeting on a Microsoft Teams in the preseason. It’s disrespectful, I know. Yet, even without your team chemistry in play, 0-2 can send your team into a death spiral in other ways, such as if it drives you to make panic moves off the waiver wire.

Let’s take a look at the players in Week 2 that wanted to set off your team’s death spiral. We’ll also see which players are uplifting the culture of your living room every Sunday.

Fantasy Games Won (FGW)

A quick Fantasy Games Won (FGW) primer:

FGW is a statistic that converts fantasy points into fantasy wins.
Players get positive FGW points for outscoring average fantasy starters and negative points for below-average scores.
A player can score up to +0.5 FGW for increasing your chances of winning from 50% to 100% or down to -0.5 for dropping your chances from 50% to 0%.
Percent started matters – 0% started throttles your FGW down to 0.

For a longer explanation, check out the 2023 FGW launch on my blog. The stat hasn’t changed since its inception.

Who Won the Week?

#	Player	Pos	Pts	%St	FGW
1	Alvin Kamara	RB	43.0	89%	0.40
2	James Cook	RB	28.0	91%	0.27
3	Marvin Harrison	WR	27.0	83%	0.25
4	De’Von Achane	RB	26.0	90%	0.24
5	Nico Collins	WR	23.5	93%	0.23
6	Ka’imi Fairbairn	K	20.0	88%	0.22
7	Justin Jefferson	WR	21.3	100%	0.20
8	DK Metcalf	WR	23.9	77%	0.19
9	Brandon Aubrey	K	17.0	100%	0.19
10	Davante Adams	WR	21.5	90%	0.18
11	Kyler Murray	QB	31.5	78%	0.17
12	Malik Nabers	WR	23.7	69%	0.17
13	Breece Hall	RB	20.9	100%	0.17
14	George Kittle	TE	17.1	93%	0.17
15	Trey McBride	TE	15.7	94%	0.14

Doesn’t it feel like it’s been ages since Alvin Kamara was a threat for games like this? The man was a top-five fantasy pick for four straight years (2019-2022) exactly because he tends to do this. A curious 11% of Kamara managers benched him for his big day. Guess we all need a reminder Kamara has more balance than a race-tuned Camaro.
Did Dalvin Cook get old, or are we just witnessing a Prestige-like body swap between brothers? The moment Dalvin started looking like a man who never played NFL football, James started looking like a man who had played in the NFL.
Looks like anyone who missed out on drafting the first Marvin Harrison will have at least a few years to get the second one in fantasy football drafts.
Last week, many sources had DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all ranked as top-60 WRs. I guess if Geno Smith is the QB, we should only expect one of them to come through at a time for a big game.
I’ve been waiting for a Kyler Murray game like this for almost three years. He’s a guy I disproportionately end up with, as I typically draft QBs for upside. This was his first 28+ point game since 2021 – when he had four of them.

Who Lost the Week?

#	Player	Pos	Pts	%St	FGW
15	Michael Pittman	WR	3.6	69%	-0.13
14	Tank Dell	WR	1.8	59%	-0.13
13	Amari Cooper	WR	2.6	64%	-0.13
12	Dallas Cowboys D/ST	DEF	1.0	90%	-0.13
11	Patrick Mahomes	QB	14.9	96%	-0.13
10	Mike Evans	WR	5.7	95%	-0.13
9	Cooper Kupp	WR	5.7	97%	-0.14
8	Ja’Marr Chase	WR	5.5	97%	-0.14
7	Joe Mixon	RB	6.5	95%	-0.14
6	Sam LaPorta	TE	2.3	100%	-0.15
5	Tyreek Hill	WR	5.1	100%	-0.15
4	Travis Kelce	TE	1.1	98%	-0.17
3	Rachaad White	RB	2.8	81%	-0.18
2	Anthony Richardson	QB	10.9	87%	-0.19
1	Josh Allen	QB	10.8	100%	-0.22

I guess Anthony Richardson drafted Alec Pierce on his fantasy team this year, missing out on Michael Pittman. If that’s the case, it’s not helping Pittman… and it’s certainly not helping Richardson, nor fantasy start sit decisions.
The Dallas Defense is… human.
I can’t decide if I feel bad for the Patrick Mahomes–Travis Kelce stacks this year, or if the train had to come into the station eventually. Is it possible this is the year Kelce falls off? I started tracking FGW in 2021, when Kelce was 31. Not only has he been easily the top TE throughout his 30s, but he’s been the fourth-best player overall by FGW. That means if you started a dynasty league in 2021, you should have taken Kelce over anyone not named Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey or Justin Jefferson. Yet, since then, his draft stock has always been slightly modulated by his age.
Speaking of fantasy stalwarts, Josh Allen with a rough performance this week. This isn’t the first time he’s he’s had an early bad week like this. His Week 1 in 2023 was worse (10.04 points). The good news for Allen managers is that would prove to be easily his worst week of 2023.
Side note: I’m not going to be fooled. I’m buying Richardson while I can. I’m all about QB upside. The fact that he had an early bad week like this is a blessing.

Week 2 Junior Varsity All-Stars

#	Player	Pos	Pts	%St	FGW
1	Quentin Johnston	WR	19.6	0%	0.17
2	Calvin Ridley	WR	22.7	31%	0.16
3	Rashid Shaheed	WR	18.9	17%	0.13
4	Hunter Henry	TE	14.9	8%	0.12
5	Braelon Allen	RB	18.6	0%	0.12
6	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	17.7	12%	0.11
7	Darnell Mooney	WR	16.3	0%	0.10
8	Mike Gesicki	TE	12.6	2%	0.08
9	Chris Godwin	WR	21.2	61%	0.08
10	Malik Nabers	WR	23.7	69%	0.08
11	J.K. Dobbins	RB	19.6	52%	0.07
12	Brock Bowers	TE	14.3	48%	0.06
13	Derek Carr	QB	23.8	1%	0.06
14	DK Metcalf	WR	23.9	77%	0.06
15	Marvin Harrison	WR	27.0	83%	0.05

If you asked any avid fantasy football player who the biggest bust of the 2023 draft was, I would wager the most popular pick would be Quentin Johnston. Even over Bryce Young. Maybe this game is a sign Johnston will end up fulfilling the Alshon Jeffery comparison and not the Kevin White comparison.
Bet the Jaguars wish they found a way to launder all of Christian Kirk‘s money to Calvin Ridley instead.
Back when I played for my middle school basketball team, I had a teammate who would occasionally go on scoring runs, but only when he wore a headband. We called his headband-wearing alter ego Rasheed. Imagine a whole team yelling “RASHEEEED” any time a certain player scored a bucket. I like to imagine Rashid Shaheed was motivated to become a pro athlete when he one day stumbled into the gym during one of our games; he went to bed that night dreaming of eliciting “RASHIIIIID” cheers himself one day.
Plot twist: My middle school basketball teammate was Derek Carr.

(Kidding, though Carr’s almost old enough to fit the profile.)

We Have Leaderboards Now

Now that two weeks are in the books, it makes sense to compile a yearly leaderboard for FGW. You can check that out here. FGW is actually a very good Fantasy Football MVP metric, as it closely mirrors stats like ownership percentage for league champions. The season-long FGW leader gets the Byron Cobalt-awarded Fantasy Football MVP award. The most negative FGW gets Least Valuable Player.

In a few weeks we’ll start looking at draft-slot-adjusted FGW on the yearly leaderboard. For now, I leave you with one reminder: Don’t worry about finally starting J.K. Dobbins this week. When he has a mediocre Week 3 in your starting lineup, it will just be a reminder that we’re all going down in this fantasy football ship together. It’s been a privilege and an honor. Best of luck in Week 3.

Articles NFL Weekly Advice Alvin Kamara James Cook Marvin Harrison De’Von Achane Nico Collins Ka’imi Fairbairn Justin Jefferson DK Metcalf Brandon Aubrey Davante Adams Kyler Murray Malik Nabers Breece Hall George Kittle Trey McBride Dalvin Cook Tyler Lockett Jaxon Smith-Njigba Geno Smith Michael Pittman Tank Dell Amari Cooper Patrick Mahomes Mike Evans Cooper Kupp Ja’Marr Chase Joe Mixon Sam LaPorta Tyreek Hill Travis Kelce Rachaad White Anthony Richardson Josh Allen Alec Pierce Christian McCaffrey Quentin Johnston Calvin Ridley Rashid Shaheed Hunter Henry Braelon Allen Darnell Mooney Mike Gesicki Chris Godwin J.K. Dobbins Brock Bowers Derek Carr Bryce Young Alshon Jeffery Kevin White Christian Kirk