There are three things that I like to be bold about: personality, coffee, and predictions. That’s right, get your coffee ready and buckle your seatbelt, because it’s time to share my 2026 Fantasy Football Predictions for 2026.
The beauty of bold predictions is that you can never be held accountable for any that don’t come to fruition, but get to bask in the glory if they do. Well, that’s how most view bold prediction articles. In this case, I am going to make the case for 10 bold predictions that I genuinely believe are realistic in 2026. As a result, these are Ellis’ “perfect world” predictions for 2026. Out with the old, and in with the bold. Let’s get into this fire hazard.
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10 Bold Predictions for the 2026 Fantasy Football Season
3 Tight Ends finish above 200 fantasy points (Half PPR)
Believe it or not, this has only happened twice since the year 2000. The most recent case was in 2018, where Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle surpassed the 200 threshold. The only other time in the last 25 years was 2009 with Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, and Antonio Gates. What these two years have in common is multiple Hall of Fame candidates at the position. In the current TE landscape, it’s the young TE’s that are dominating the position. In 2024, we almost had another instance of three 200-point TEs, with Brock Bowers (206), George Kittle (197), and Trey McBride (194). If it wasn’t for Kittle’s injury, we could see all three get over the mark this season.
So if Kittle is likely the odd man out, who can step up? With the league shifting towards TE-heavy offensive sets, we could see snaps across the position skyrocket. This should significantly impact receiving TEs as they will remain on the field with their blocking counterparts. This also leaves the possibility that complete TEs may never leave the field. Outside of the aforementioned three, Colston Loveland is the heavy favorite to be the third option to surpass 200 points.
200 fantasy points is an average of 11.8 fantasy points per week. Last year, seven receivers surpassed that mark, and only Trey McBride did for the TE position. In 2009 and 2018, all but one of the TEs (Vernon Davis) had over 1100 yards (he had 965), and only one had fewer than eight touchdowns (George Kittle, five). As a result, we need TEs who are the focal point of their offense and likely impactful in the red zone.
We know that Bowers and McBride check both these boxes. We are also expecting Colston Loveland to take a step towards becoming an elite TE. However, McBride and Loveland have two quality receivers to compete with, so what are the other options? If Kittle was not starting the season coming off a torn Achilles, and Kelce was three years younger, they would be on this list. The two other candidates, in my opinion, are Sam LaPorta and Tyler Warren. Of the two, Laporta is more likely, as he is a complete TE on a certified elite offense. As for Warren, his blocking may get in the way, but we are also relying on Daniel Jones coming off a torn Achilles of his own. Warren has the ability, but if Jones is only going to pass for 20 touchdowns or so, it will be tough for him to reach that mark.
Six of last year’s top 12 receivers will finish outside the top 15 in 2026
Historically, around 60-65 percent of top-12 receivers stay in the top 12 each season. So why am I saying 50 percent will change and not only be outside the top 12, but fail to crack the top 15? It may not seem like it, but there is a method to the madness.
Last season was a weird year for the position. With three teams having combined for six of the top 12 receivers (Bengals, Rams, Lions), it would be tough to see each team repeating the offensive success to replicate the fantasy production in consecutive seasons. It was also a lower scoring year for receivers, as only seven cracked 200 points. In 2024, 11 had over 200 points, and 15 were over 195.
Additionally, we also had a large number of QB injuries, with Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Daniel Jones all missing multiple weeks. We also had some QBs performing at a surprising level; for example, Matthew Stafford winning MVP at the age of 37, and Tyler Shough feeding Chris Olave for the best season of his career.
We may say this every season, but heading into 2026, it’s setting up to be a massive fantasy year. With two receivers being selected in the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft and talented veterans finding new teams, there are plenty of players that could crack into the top 12. Key players that are primed to build on their previous success include Tetoria McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Luther Burden, and Rome Odunze. We also have veterans in changed situations with huge upside, such as Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonte Smith, and DJ Moore.
So, who do I believe will be the six players to fall out of the top 12 in 2026? From most to least likely, my predictions would start with Courtland Sutton (11th) and Chris Olave (6th), as both gained another talented WR to compete with. Following them, Jamieson Williams (11th) and Zay Flowers (7th) both lack the skillsets to be perennial top 12 options. The last group I fear will miss are the touchdown fiends, such as Davante Adams (8th) and Tee Higgins (12th), who had 14 and 11 touchdowns, respectively. Although that is six receivers, I also would mention George Pickens (5th) as a potential candidate if CeeDee Lamb ends up playing the entire season.
D.J. Moore Finishes as a Top 10 Receiver
With all this potential room for new names in the top 12, I have to follow suit with a candidate that is currently getting drafted as the WR23. Last season was a mess for D.J. Moore. Pushed behind an influx of young talent, it was clear that Moore was not in Ben Johnson‘s offensive plans. Despite finishing as the top fantasy receiver on the team, it was a season to forget for fantasy.
Flash forward to 2026, and Moore is now the top option for one of the best QBs in the league. Josh Allen may be Superman, but last year showed us that even he can’t win playoff games throwing to Brandin Cooks, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman. Since he had Stefon Diggs for a stretch, you could argue that Josh Allen can’t win playoff games anyway, but I’ll save that argument for another time.
After sending a second-round draft pick to the Bears and immediately extending Moore, it is clear that the front office strongly believes Moore is the solution to their WR issue. Whether you believe this was a terrible move or not, all signs point to Moore having a hefty target volume.
From 2020 to 2023, Diggs had fantasy finishes of three, seven, four, and 10 with Josh Allen. The talent gap between Diggs and Moore can be debated; however, there is a clear track record of success when Allen has a go at receiver. Additionally, Moore’s play style, prioritizing getting open over route specifics, fits Allen’s game (unlike Ben Johnson’s offense).
After a tough season last year, it isn’t hard to see Moore hitting the receiver cliff in 2026. However, I would argue it also isn’t hard to see the path to a very valuable fantasy season.
De’Von Achane Outside the Top 16
After an incredible season last year, Achane solidified himself as one of the best backs in fantasy. Even on a floundering Dolphins team, Achane never finished below RB 17 on any given week in 2025. That’s incredible consistency. Even though the Dolphins were rough last year, they have managed to get even worse.
With a change in Head Coach, QB, and receiving corps, this is a completely different team. Ironically, the team that completed #TankforTua, is looking to do the same for the 2027 class. This is not good for Achane. After bringing in Malik Willis, the team proceeded to ship Jaylen Waddle and cut Tyreek Hill. Achane is now the lone star left on this offense and will be heavily relied on each week.
Although the usage could be viewed as a positive, we saw Ashton Jeanty last year fail to overcome his situation. I fear that Achane is looking at the same type of season in 2026. Especially with the change from Check-Down Tua to Malik Willis and Mike McDaniel to Jeff Hafley.
In general, we know that rushing QBs are typically not great for receiving backs. Achane is coming off back-to-back top-five seasons in targets at the position, surpassing 85 targets in each season. He now gets Willis under center, who, in his four starts with Josh Jacobs in Green Bay, averaged seven fantasy points per game (Half PPR). Across those four games, Jacobs totaled four targets.
Obviously, Achane is a superior pass catcher and a more explosive back; however, the opportunities may be hard to come by. Across his last eight starts over his last four seasons, Willis averaged 15.78 pass attempts per game. In order for Achane to average five targets per game again, that would be an unworldly 33% target share based on Willis’ previous performances.
If you limit receptions and goal line opportunities, it’s going to be very difficult for Achane to have another great fantasy season. So difficult that missing the top 16 RBs could be in the cards.
Josh Downs finishes as the Top Colts WR for Fantasy
Every year, Josh Downs makes the list of some of the industry’s favorite sleepers. Unfortunately, for the last three years, he has failed to finish within the top 36 receivers. Still, Downs continues to showcase explosive plays and a versatile receiver skill set.
With Michael Pittman Jr. in Pittsburgh and Alex Pierce returning on a massive contract, Downs and Tyler Warren are guaranteed to split the middle of the field and short work. This may be less flashy than typical outside receivers; however, Downs can turn any reception into a house call.
So why do I think this will finally be the season for Downs to find consistent fantasy success? The simple answer is that Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles. To make matters worse, it is his right leg, predominantly used to drive the football downfield. As a result, Josh Downs’ 2025 average depth of target of 7.2 yards could be more suitable than Alec Pierce‘s 18.9.
Without Pittman, Downs may finally see the opportunity to produce for fantasy. Leading the team in fantasy points doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be a great fantasy value, but it should guarantee him to crack the top 36 for the first time in his career.
Tyler Allgeier has more rushing touchdowns than Jeremiyah Love
What’s a Bold Predictions article without a little “what if” game? What if the Cardinals were always considering drafting Jeremiah Love at the third pick when they signed Tyler Allgeier? It is one heck of a coincidence that one of the only backs who has played second fiddle to a highly drafted prospect finds himself in the exact same situation on a different team. Even David Montgomery managed to get out of Jahmyr Gibbs‘ shadow and is a lead back heading into 2026.
With Jeremiyah Love as the top overall player on multiple scouts’ boards, it’s not wild to think that he was always a target for the Cardinals. As a result, getting Allgeier was the perfect complementary back to help carry the workload. This is not to say Love won’t have a great fantasy impact; just look at Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. Even if he isn’t the level of prospect of those two, he is still a top-end prospect that can break explosive plays at will.
If the Cardinals always planned on having both of these backs, Allgeier was brought in with a specific role in mind. Historically, we have seen what this role is, and it’s the most valuable touches for fantasy football. Allgeier has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs over the last few years. Anyone who can split carries inside the five-yard line evenly with Bijan Robinson must have a knack for finding the end zone. Last year, his seven carries inside the five-yard line led to four scores.
In 2025, the Cardinals had the second-fewest rushing touchdowns of any team with nine. With Love and Allgeier, this should increase; however, Allgeier may be the biggest beneficiary if the team positively regresses.
Three QBs pass for 40+ Touchdowns for the fourth time since 2000
Last year, only Matthew Stafford surpassed the 40 touchdown threshold. Since 2000, there have only been three seasons where three different QBs have all hit 40+ touchdowns: 2011, Drew Brees 46, Aaron Rodgers 45, and Matthew Stafford 41; 2020, Rodgers 48, Stafford 40, and Russell Wilson 40; 2024, Joe Burrow 43, Lamar Jackson 41, and Baker Mayfield 41.
So what makes this season different? Despite teams switching to heavier personnel packages, multiple elite passers are primed for bounce-back seasons. Most notably, two of the QBs who passed that threshold in 2024 had their seasons derailed by injury in 2025. Both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are on the short list of candidates.
At the moment, Joe Burrow is the betting favorite to lead the league in passing touchdowns, with a line of 31.5 (per BettingPros), with Matthew Stafford as a close second with 30.5. These two are always threats for massive passing totals, especially when they are throwing to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua.
Even if both of them crack the 40 threshold, who else will join them? Lamar Jackson having a bounce-back season instantly puts him in consideration, but there are a couple of others who could do it. In 2021, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert came close with 37 and 38, respectively. We also have Patrick Mahomes, who has surpassed the 40 mark twice in his career, once hitting 50 passing touchdowns in 2018.
Saying three QBs will hit this threshold may be bold enough as it is. However, I’ll go one further and predict the three that will do it this year: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy.
No Jacksonville Wide Receiver Finishes in the Top 30 (Half PPR)
This is a tricky one, as I expect the Jaguars to have another prolific offensive season. That said, we are staring at the new Green Bay Packers when it comes to their receiving corps. With plenty of talented weapons and no bona fide top receiver, this team will spread the ball like jam, not jelly. You can compare each piece one for one with last year’s Green Bay team; they even have a receiver playing corner!
Jakobi Meyers is your lunch-pale receiver, like Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Brian Thomas are your two athletic stars, Jayden Reed and Parker Washington are your dominant slot receivers, and Travis Hunter is a way more talented multi-positional Bo Melton that has substantially more receiving upside than Dontayvion Wicks. They even have a Tucker Kraft-esque hyper-athletic TE in Brenton Strange.
In 2023 and 2024, Jayden Reed finished the highest at WR23 and WR26, respectively. In 2025, Doubs was the highest as the WR36. Trevor Lawrence has been a more prolific passer than Jordan Love from a yardage perspective; however, Love has been more efficient with touchdowns. Add in a well-rounded rushing game with Bayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez, and LeQuint Allen, and suddenly the spots on the Jaguars start to look like cheese.
Changing of the Guard: For the first time since 2016, the Top 12 Runningbacks will not feature one of Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, or Alvin Kamara
Bold predictions are supposed to be fun and exciting. At face value, this is the opposite. It’s hard to see this happening without each of these backs either hitting the age cliff or missing time due to injury. Unfortunately, all of them are prime candidates for either option in 2026.
The most obvious candidate is Derrick Henry; however, he may also be the most unlikely. All usage and age stats point towards a potential downfall of the King. But he is Derrick Henry, so who knows? With 2662 rushes for 13018 yards in his career, the 32-year-old back is doing a dangerous dance with Father Time.
As for Barkley and McCaffrey, these two have a history of lost seasons due to injury. Additionally, they are also coming off massive workloads. Barkley has the second-most carries of all backs over the last two seasons (625 regular-season rushes, plus 117 attempts in the playoffs). Meanwhile, CMC had 450 touches in the regular season and playoffs combined. As for Alvin Kamara, he is already at the bottom of the cliff waiting for the others.
That said, it’s not all doom and gloom for fantasy running backs. If these teams begin to distribute the work of their aging backs, there is a plethora of young backs waiting in the wings. After all, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne, and Chase Brown are 12 backs primed for successful seasons. Add in Jeremiyah Love, Byashul Tuten, and TreVeyon Henderson, as young backs who could break out, and there may not be room for the veterans, even if they are healthy…
Bijan Robinson will set the record for most rushing and receiving yards in a season
No Bold Predictions article would be complete without a historical record being broken. The current record for most rushing and receiving yards in a season is Chris Johnson, who had 2,509 yards in 2009. This season, Bijan Robinson will take over the crown for most yards in a season.
Despite this being the only record-breaking prediction of this article, it is not the most far-fetched. Last season, Robinson had 2,298 rushing and receiving yards, placing him at 12th all-time. He did this with Allgeier having 610 yards of his own. When Chris Johnson set the record, LenDale White had the second-most RB yards with 78. In recent years, the only back to threaten this record was Christian McCaffrey in 2019, where he had 2,392 yards. That season, fantasy legend Reggie Bonnaffon had the second-most RB yards on the Panthers with 173.
This is not to say that Robinson is going to take over all of Allgeier’s yards. However, it shows a clear path to breaking the record, even if Brian Robinson takes some work. The Falcons are not the best offense, but they sure know how to utilize their running backs. Plus, “Checkdown” Tua Tagovailoa could be feeding the superstar back in the receiving game. Buckle your seatbelt, because we are primed for a special season from number 7.
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