Fantasy Football Player Notes

The Pittsburgh Steelers running back took a slight step backward in his second season, falling to RB14 in points per game after a top-5 fantasy season as a rookie. However, his usage metrics were still very strong across the board. Harris still operated as a pseudo-workhorse ranking 6th in opportunity share (70%) and 8th in total touches through the first 17 weeks of the season. Harris also improved drastically after the team's bye week operating as the RB7 in points per game over the last 9 weeks of the season. After tallying zero games with 20 carries through the first 8 weeks, Harris totaled 5 games with 20-plus carries during the second half of 2022. Should the Steelers undergo an offensive surge in Kenny Pickett's second season with a drastically improved offensive line, Harris could easily get back into the top-tier fantasy RB tier.

There's only one explanation for Diontae Johnson's 2022 season. After an offseason workout in rainy Pittsburgh, he entered his house with an umbrella still drawn and tripped over his black cat, which sent him hurdling into his full-length entryway mirror, thus shattering it into a million pieces. This unlikely yet possible turn of events is the only possible explanation for his wretchedly unlucky season. Despite ranking 13th in target share, tenth in red zone targets, and the WR20 in expected fantasy points per game, Johnson finished the season with zero touchdowns as the WR39 in fantasy points per game. Kenny Pickett's play was a factor, but Johnson simply had a terrible run-out. Regression is coming for Johnson and this offense. Johnson still ranked 11th in total route wins, so no skill dropoff is involved here. It's just a case of legendarily bad luck. Johnson is a WR3 with top-15 upside.

Pickens had some standout moments in his rookie season, including highlight-reel catches and shadow realm run blocking reps. Still, overall if you were banking on him to be a major fantasy producer, you were probably disappointed. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with also eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. He barely eclipsed a 15% target per route run rate. Pickens is a WR4/5 that could be the fourth option in a Kenny Pickett-led passing attack.

After a promising rookie season in which he had 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns, Pat Freiermuth scored only two TDs in 2022. But Freiermuth drew 98 targets in his second season and finished with 63 catches for 732 yards. The former second-round draft pick from Penn State offers a solid fantasy floor as a key component of the Pittsburgh passing game.

Former undrafted 2022 free agent, Jaylen Warren shined with every opportunity he got in the Steelers backfield last season. After earning the No. 2 role behind Najee Harris, Warren finished third in rushing success rate (45.5%) and second in the 2022 RB class in yards per route run behind just Breece Hall. Warren's efficient play suggests he will continue to see snaps alongside Najee Harris. But further baked into his upside case is that should Harris miss anytime, the 215-pound Warren would inherit bell-cow duties without any other Steelers RBs behind him yearning for touches.

The first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, Kenny Pickett had mixed results in his rookie season, averaging 184.9 passing yards per game and 6.2 yards per attempt, and throwing more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7). Pickett did get less interception-prone and sack-prone as the season went on, and he guided the Steelers to victory in his final three starts. We should probably expect more below-average passing numbers from Pickett in 2023, but he offers value as a runner, having run for 237 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.