Fantasy Football Player Notes

What a rookie season Bucky Irving had. Not only did he average 5.4 yards per carry, but he averaged 3.93 yards after contact per carry -- the most among all running backs with 60 or more rushing attempts. Irving forced 62 missed tackles last year, which ranked eighth, and all the running backs who forced more missed tackles last year had more carries than Irving. There were seven games in which Irving played more than half of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps, including their one playoff game, and in those seven games he averaged 127.3 yards from scrimmage per game and scored six touchdowns. Irving displaced Rachaad White as the Bucs' lead RB down the stretch last season and should continue to hold that job. Invest with confidence.

Evans topped the 1,000-yard mark for an 11th consecutive season, keeping the streak alive by crossing the 1,000-yard threshold late in the Buccaneers' final regular-season game. Evans averaged only 51.7 yards over his first six games and had seven or fewer targets in five of those contests. Then, he injured his hamstring in Week 7 and missed three games. But Evans caught fire upon his return. With fellow WR out for the year with a dislocated ankle, Evans averaged 6.9 receptions and 95.6 yards over his final seven games. Evans has been one of the safest bets in fantasy football for years. He's entering his age-32 season, but he's aging gracefully.

Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. He led an offense that ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation. Mayfield ranked fifth in passing attempts, third in passing yards, and second in passing touchdowns. Mayfield's passing touchdowns could regress some in 2025, as he had 41 last year when he has never eclipsed 30 before. Now, that doesn't mean his passing touchdowns will drop back into the 20s, but I do expect him to finish somewhere in the mid-30s. Another area where Mayfield could see some regressing is in the rushing department. Last year, he finished with 378 rushing yards (10th-best) and three rushing scores (12th-best). Both of those figures were also career highs. I'm not trying to take anything away from Mayfield because he was studly on a per-dropback basis. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he was seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE and second in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Mayfield should backslide in a number of categories this season, but he is still in a pass-happy offense, surrounded by an awesome cast of skill weapons, and is playing the best football of his career. Mayfield is a strong QB1.

Chris Godwin has a midrange WR3, which seems unexpectedly affordable for a guy who was WR1 in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of the 2024 season. But Godwin is coming back from a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula, and the Buccaneers have since added first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka, who, like Godwin, does his best work in the slot. With the likelihood of increased target competition and the possibility that Godwin won't be at 100% capacity this season post-injury, it might be worth pumping the brakes in 2025 fantasy drafts even though Godwin is a trusted brand name.

After a triumphant 2023 season in which he had 1,539 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns, finishing RB4 in PPR fantasy scoring, Rachaad White lost his lead-RB job to Bucky Irving in 2024. White was still a useful contributor who caught 51 passes, had 1,006 yards from scrimmage and scored nine touchdowns. But Irving was sensational, and White played fewer than 40% of the offensive snaps in the Buccaneers' last two regular-season games and their one playoff game. White is a worthwhile handcuff, and his pass-catching ability might give him a tiny bit of stand-alone value in PPR leagues, but he's now mostly just a later-round depth piece.

Emeka Egbuka looks like this year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rome Odunze. The talented first-round selection in the NFL draft finds himself in a squeeze for target volume immediately with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Yes, Godwin is coming off another major injury that could help boost Egbuka's prospects, but Evans didn't show any fall-off last year. I also haven't mentioned Jalen McMillan, who broke out down the stretch last season. Last year, among 112 qualifying wideouts, Evans ranked second in separation score and route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Egbuka's skillset also has some considerable overlap with Chris Godwin. All of these factors muddy the picture for Egbuka in 2025. While I'm worried about Egbuka, he remains a talented wide receiver with significant first-round NFL draft capital and a strong analytical profile. In two of Egbuka's final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 40 FBS wide receivers in yards per route run (38th, 11th) and top 20 in receiving grade (19th, 12th) and yards after the catch (16th, 12th). Egbuka could outproduce his ADP if Evans and/or Godwin can't stay healthy, so he's worth taking a shot on in the middle/later rounds.

Jalen McMillan started slowly in his rookie season but came on down the stretch. In Weeks 14-18, he was the WR11 in fantasy points per game, spiking seven touchdowns. During those five games, he had an 18.4% target share, 63.2 receiving yards per game, 2.09 yards per route run, a 22.9% first-read share, and 0.099 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Outside of the insane touchdown production, McMillan's efficiency stats were all nice. Unfortunately for him, the Bucs felt the need to further upgrade their wide receiver room despite his stretch performance and Chris Godwin's return. Tampa Bay's drafting of Emeka Egbuka pushes McMillan into the WR4 role unless Godwin or Mike Evans miss time. He's not a bad contingency plan or "handcuff wide receiver," but outside of that, his production will be too spotty this season to count on in fantasy. I'll only take shots on him in best ball settings.

Cade Otton had career marks nearly across the board in 2024, but it was a perfect storm for Tampa Bay's dependable tight end. He logged three massive games without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the lineup that greatly boosted his season ending stat lines. In Weeks 8-10, without Evans and Godwin, Otton had a 25.5% target share with 2.03 yards per route run, a 29.9% first-read share, 64.3 receiving yards per game, and 0.116 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). He averaged an astounding 19.8 PPR points per game. Outside of those three games, Otton had a 15.8% target share with 1.39 yards per route run, a 14.5% first-read share, 37 receiving yards per game, and 0.068 first downs per route run. With Evans and Godwin back and the addition of Emeka Egbuka to the fold, Otton's 2025 season will closely resemble that last sample of production (maybe lower if Egbuka can cut into his work more than Jalen McMillan was able to). He's a basement-level TE2.

Chase McLaughlin finished 2024 as the sixth-highest scoring kicker (9.6 PPG). It was his best season to date, and he might have been just scratching the surface. His 94% FG% led all kickers with at least 23 attempts. His two misses were on 50-yard tries. If the Buccaneers' 2024 4th-ranked red-zone offense regresses in any way, McLaughlin will benefit.