Fantasy Football Player Notes

Tyreek Hill showed no decline with the move from Kansas City to South Beach. Hill was the WR3 in fantasy points per game, accumulating five weeks with 140 or more receiving yards. He led the league in deep targets while scoring nine total touchdowns (fourth). Hill amassed a ridiculous 31.6% target share (second-best) while ranking first in yards per route run. If the Dolphins scheme him up more targets in the red zone next season (40th among wide receivers), he could finish as the WR1 overall.

Jaylen Waddle enjoyed an explosive sophomore season as the underneath complement to Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins' high-flying aerial attack. Waddle was the WR12 in fantasy, ranking tenth in YAC, seventh in receiving yards, and 11th in total touchdowns. Waddle was also fourth in yards per route run and third in fantasy points per target. He's an ascending alpha wide receiver who could easily lead the Dolphins in receiving in 2023 if Tyreek Hill shows any signs of slowing down. Invest in second and third-year wide receivers always. This is the way.

Your willingness to draft Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 will likely depend on your tolerance for risk. Tua proved himself as a passer in 2022, leading all quarterbacks in passer rating (105.5), yards per attempt (8.9) and touchdown percentage (6.3%). But Tua has to be considered a concussion risk after a season in which he twice missed games due to brain injuries. He was knocked unconscious against the Bengals in Week 4 and didn't return until Week 7. He was also placed in the concussion protocol after a Week 16 game against the Packers and missed Miami's final two games. Were it not for concussion concerns. Tua would be drafted as a top-10 quarterback as a talented young passer in an explosive Dolphins offense that features two terrific WRs in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But with the possibility that another concussion could put Tua out of action indefinitely, it seems more sensible to regard Tua as a high-end QB2.

Jeff Wilson joined the Miami squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Raheem Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions.

The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed). Considering the contracts and difference in age, I much prefer Wilson as my preferred Dolphins veteran running back to target with a late-round flier.

Raheem Mostert signed with the Dolphins in 2022, reuniting with former 49ers coach Mike McDaniel in South Beach. The soon-to-be 31-year-old was projected to be the back up for big free agent acquisition, Chase Edmonds. However, Edmonds fell out of favor extremely quickly and Mostert took over the starting job in Week 2. From that point until Week 8, Mostert averaged nearly ten half-points (RB21), 13.7 rushing attempts, and 62 rushing yards per game. The team quickly moved on from Edmonds before the trade deadline, replacing his spot on the roster with another ex-49ers running back, Jeff Wilson Jr.

Wilson joined the squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions.

The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed). Miami also drafted speed demon Devon Achane in the 3rd round. His speed element overlaps most with Mostert (a fellow former track star) suggesting Achane's playing time will likely come at the expense of Mostert and not Wilson.

Devon Achane finally got the chance to be the clear-cut No. 1 running back for the Aggies in 2022 with Isaiah Spiller drafted to the NFL and the uber-explosive Achane did not disappoint. The Texas A&M 4.32 RB speedster rushed for 1,100 yards and 8 rushing TDs while catching 36 balls (3.6 per game) for 196 yards on 44 targets. Good for a 33% dominator rating a year after earning a 26% dominator rating while splitting time with Spiller. And although Achane will likely go through the wringer from NFL draft pundits when it comes to his smaller stature - 5-foot-81/2, 188 pounds - he put any "can he handle a large workload" concern to rest in his final game versus LSU. Achane totaled 38 carries for 215 rushing yards and two TDs after missing a few games with an injury.

Achane ended his final college season with the second highest "hit at the line" positive run percentage, making the most of unfortunate situations when the defense pierced through the offensive line.

The speedster also offers top-tier kickoff return ability, which helped boost his draft stock and get him active on game days. Achane finished as PFF's 3rd-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players. That ensures he will be suiting up for the Miami Dolphins early on this season, after they selected him in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft. It was the highest draft pick used on a running back by the Dolphins since Kenyan Drake.

Miami is the perfect fit for Achane; his elite track speed in an outside zone running offense is going to terrify defenses. And it's not too crazy to think Achane can rise the depth chart that currently consists of a 31-year-old injury-prone Raheem Mostert and journeyman Jeff Wilson Jr.