Fantasy Football Player Notes

Justin Herbert's 2023 season ended after 13 games due to a broken index finger on his throwing hand. Before the injury, he had been providing fantasy managers with low-end QB1 value. Herbert's yearly finishes in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks (six starts minimum): QB7, QB2, QB15, QB10. It would be nice if Herbert could get back to the production level of his first two years in the league. Over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Herbert averaged 292.2 passing yards, 2.2 TD passes and 23.1 fantasy points per game. Over the last two seasons, he's averaged 262.4 passing yards, 1.5 TD passes and 17.7 fantasy points per game. With Herbert's exceptional arm talent and rushing upside, there's no reason he can't get back to that early-career level of production. Herbert is a solid fantasy option for 2024.

Gus Edwards arrives in Los Angeles with a two-year deal that is essentially a one-year contract, with the money falling off after 2024. Edwards will likely have a running mate adding to this depth chart during the NFL Draft, but for now, he looks like the team's clear-cut starter. Last season, Edwards was the RB32 in fantasy, with the strength of 13 total touchdowns (fourth-most). Edwards is an early down grinder who only managed a 2.8% target share last season, so all of his value will have to come via rushing. Edwards looks like a player on the decline in the rushing department after finishing 51st in juke rate, 39th in evaded tackles, and 45th in yards created per touch last season. Edwards is currently an RB3, standing alone at the top of the Bolts' depth chart, but his stock will likely drop after the NFL Draft.

Difficult to not view Josh Palmer as a legitimate winner after the Chargers moved on from both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the same offseason. Palmer stepped up big time in the Chargers offense last season when Williams/Allen missed time. In Week 18, he commanded 10 targets despite a 58% snap share. During the season, he posted an 18% target share and averaged 1.89 yards per route run. In games played without Williams fully healthy, Palmer averaged 10.6 points per game. During the final three games of the year with neither Williams or Allen or Justin Herbert available, Palmer hit a 20% target share and 23% target rate per route run averaging 11.5 points per game (WR25). The Chargers will draft a WR, so don't go crazy with Palmer. But note that he is the best in-house option on the roster at WR. Not Quentin Johnston.