Fantasy Football Player Notes

Derrick Henry made fantasy drafters that overlooked him look silly in 2022, finishing the season as the RB4 overall and in points per game (18.3). He finished second in carries and third in rushing yards (23.4 touches per game) while also posting career highs in targets, receptions and yards per route run. The bad offensive situation hardly influenced Henry's fantasy numbers and he did not seem hampered by the foot injury that knocked him out of the second half of the 2021 season. Fading Henry in 2022 was betting on him to hit the wall playing behind a shaky offensive line finally. And that bet did not go well. But another year of a heavy workload combined with the Titans' grim 2023 outlook with major questions on offense, will bring concerns about drafting Henry early in 2023.

Treylon Burks is staring down a sophomore season with tons of opportunities at his disposal to put his disappointing rookie season in the past. Burks saw a 17.6% target share last season while ranking 35th in air-yard share and 32nd in yards per route run. While none of these numbers will inspire confidence in Burks entering year two, his 17th-ranked route win rate and 24th-ranked open rate (tied with Marquise Brown, per ESPN analytics) should. Burks enters the offseason with only Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, and Chigoziem Okonkwo to compete for targets in 2023. Burks falls in the WR3/4 bucket, but he could easily crush that expectation.

A fourth-round draft pick from Maryland, Chigoziem "Chig" Okonkwo was a pleasant surprise for the Titans in his rookie season, catching 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 14.1 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target, flashing impressive speed and tackle-breaking ability after the catch. Okonkwo is an exciting addition to the TE pool, although the Titans' grim QB situation might force us to temper our enthusiasm for this up-and-comer.

Now in the twilight of his career, Tannehill should be considered a functional game manager with limited fantasy appeal. Tannehill finished as a top-12 QB in 2020 and 2021, but he boosted his fantasy value with seven TD runs in each of those two seasons, and we can't count on that sort of rushing production from a quarterback who'll be entering his age-35 season and had only two TD runs last season. Tannehill also has rookie QB Will Levis looking his shoulder, and it's possible the Titans could make a QB change at some point, particularly if they fall out of the playoff hunt.

Tyjae Spears boosted his draft stock dramatically as a buzzy player at the Senior Bowl, and his atomic rise up the draft boards continued at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Spears weighed in at 5-foot-10 and 201 pounds. He did not run the 40-yard dash but instead nearly jumped out of the building in the explosion drills. His vertical jump of 39″ ranked in the 92nd percentile and was second only to Chase Brown. Spears' broad jump ranked third in the class at 125″ which ranked in the 89th percentile.

The Tulane running back will be one of my top rookie running back targets after he posted a 31 percent dominator rating in 2022, finishing 5th in the FBS in rushing yards (1,586), second in rushing TDs (19), and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.55). Per Sports Info Solutions' total points model, Spears finished third in total points per game and total EPA generated per game. He also finished second in the class in pass pro snaps per game (8.1), something NFL coaches will drool over.

Throughout his career, he boasts an impressive 3.00 yards per play (seventh best in the class) - a great indicator of future success at the NFL level.

The Titans selected Spears in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft despite scary reports regarding Spears' short shelf life based on previous knee injuries. For 2023 alone, he's a high-upside handcuff option should anything happen to Derrick Henry.

Rookie Will Levis has immense potential but might need a few years before he's ready to fulfill it. Expected to be drafted in the first round but instead selected early in the second, Levis has prototypical size (6-3, 232 pounds), a cannon arm and dynamic rushing ability. But Levis is coming off a somewhat disappointing final college season at Kentucky, and he's expected to serve an apprenticeship behind incumbent Titans starter Ryan Tannehill in his first NFL season.