Fantasy Football Player Notes

There's no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets' first-year running back was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game in just seven games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked fourth in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run. The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for nine to 12 months. Although the latest reports suggest that Hall is progressing faster than expected and the team believes he could be ready for training camp. Just do whatever you can to get this guy on your fantasy team.

From Day 1, Garrett Wilson was my favorite rookie WR from the 2022 class. The dude could get open at will and check off all the boxes as an early declare being selected inside the top 10. And he did not disappoint. The former Buckeye commanded a 53% target share in Week 18 to close out a rookie season with a 25% target share, 86% route participation and 146 targets (top-10), despite not being a full-time player until Week 8. WR22 overall and WR20 in expected points per game.
Entering 2023, Wilson will have a major upgrade at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers under center. Last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 17 fantasy points, 6 catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Top-10 fantasy WR numbers. If Rodgers can just be accurate throwing the ball (seems manageable), Wilson will crush it in 2023. No Jets QB completed more than 60% of their passes last season. Rodgers completed 64.6% of his passes last season, which was close to his career average (65.3%).
Wilson is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than 5 TDs.

It will be strange to see Aaron Rodgers wearing a different shade of green now that he's moved from the Packers to the Jets. The 39-year-old Rodgers still makes some dazzling throws, but he experienced some statistical slippage in 2022. He threw only 26 TD passes, and his 12 interceptions were the most he'd thrown in a season since 2008. He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark of his 15 years as a starter. Rodgers' days as a QB1 may be over. He finished QB13 in fantasy scoring last season, but he was QB21 in fantasy points per game among QBs who played at least 10 games. Don't make the mistake of buying Rodgers based solely on the name brand. It's possible the change of venue will rekindle interest in Favre, but the Jets' defense is one of the best in the league, so Rodgers isn't going to be involved in a lot of shootouts and may end up being a glorified game manager in 2023.

Israel "Izzy" Abanikanda didn't do much at Pittsburgh during his first two years there, but he finally broke out in 2022 as the team's No. 1 running back. The 5-foot-10 and 216-pound running back rushed for 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns en route to a 39% dominator rating. Abanikanda would go on to finish as PFF's 8th-highest rusher in his draft class.

At Pitt's pro day, Abanikanda ran an unofficial 4.41 40-yard dash with some reports claiming he got under 4.3. He also jumped out of the building hitting 41 inches in the vertical (97th percentile) and 128 inches in the broad jump (95th percentile). His size/speed profile is extremely enticing.

A low-ceiling, high-floor fantasy option, Tyler Conklin has finished TE17 and TE16 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring the last two seasons. Conklin's ceiling could be a little higher with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB for the Jets in 2023.

Zach Wilson is coming off a disastrous 2022 season in which he completed 54.5% of his passes, threw more interceptions (7) than TD passes (6), and lost four of his last five starts. The Jets viewed Wilson as their quarterback of the future after drafting him No. 2 overall in 2021, but it's now he's ticketed for a backup role. Wilson has NFL-caliber arm talent and above-average mobility, so it's too early to completely slam the door on him, but Wilson's future is very uncertain.