Fantasy Football Player Notes

From Weeks 7-17 - removing the game versus Baltimore when Travis Etienne left with an injury - the Jaguars running back averaged 15 fantasy points per game (RB8 in points per game) and was the standing RB10 in total half-points scored. ETN would proceed to finish the 2022 fantasy regular season tied for 5th in carries inside the 10-yard line (23), but he only scored four touchdowns on those carries. He's primed to see his TD numbers climb with the backfield all but his from the get-go in 2023 in ascending offense. Etienne also just scratched the surface of how he can contribute in the passing game. The receiving "role" has been his in terms of routes run most weeks in 2022, but targets did not always follow with Trevor Lawrence preferring Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram - who all stayed healthy in 2022. If one of those guys goes down in 2023 we will probably see ETN see a boosted receiving role. The second-year rusher averaged a 22% target rate per route in 3 of his last four games played. No. 2 running back/pass-catcher JaMycal Hasty, former Cleveland Brown D'Ernest Johnson and 2023 third-rounder Tank Bigsby are behind him on the current depth chart.

The last time we saw Calvin Ridley, he was still among the best receivers in the league. In 2021, Ridley was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%), and fifth in route win rate. Ridley and Ryan just couldn't find their old chemistry, as Ryan's skills were profoundly diminished. Ridley was subjected to backup quarterback-level target quality that ranked 63rd. His catchable target rate was only 71.2% (73rd). While it's worth pondering what version of Ridley we'll see returning from hiatus, don't for a second think he was playing poorly in 2021 despite the fantasy results not being there. With Trevor Lawrence taking a huge step forward in 2022, Ridley will be a WR2 next season with WR1 upside.

Christian Kirk set career highs across the board in 2022 as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. He gobbled up a 23.2% target share (24th) with the 15th-best raw target volume among wide receivers. Kirk also ranked 12th in deep targets, fifth in red-zone looks, and 22nd in yards per route run. Kirk was 21st in PFF slot receiving grade with 76.7% of his target volume coming via the slot (minimum 15 slot targets). With Calvin Ridley entering the target pecking order conversation in Jacksonville, Kirk profiles as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

After a lost 2021 season under former Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer, the talented Trevor Lawrence began to blossom in 2022 under the tutelage of first-year Jags HC Doug Pederson. From 2021 to 2022, Lawrence improved his completion percentage from 59.6% to 66.3%, boosted his YPA from 5.2 to 7.3, and upped his TD rate from 2.0% to 4.3%. Also a willing and able runner, Lawrence had five TD runs last season. Lawrence finished QB8 in fantasy scoring in 2022, and the former No. 1 draft pick is still ascending. Invest with confidence.

Evan Engram had a terrific rookie season for the Giants in 2017, then spent the next four years failing to live up to expectations. He signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars in 2022 and thrived in his new environment, catching 73 passes for 766 yards and four touchdowns. Engram also had 7-93-1 in the Jaguars epic come-from-behind playoff win vs. the Chargers. Back with the Jags after being franchise-tagged, Engram will likely be drafted as a midrange or low-end TE1 this summer. That might be a slight overpay now that the Jaguars have added WR Calvin Ridley and have ample pass-catching weaponry on the roster to make target competition fierce.

Cartavious "Tank" Bigsby has been a force for the Auburn Tigers since he first stepped on the school campus. He took over as the team's starting running back as a freshman in 2020, earning a 20% dominator rating. Bigsby would build off his hot start as a sophomore with a 25% dominator rating followed by a career-high 27% dominator rating his junior year. The 6-foot, 210-pound back finished 6th in yards after contact per attempt (4.16), 11th in forced missed tackles, 11th in PFF rushing grade and 7th in breakaway run rate among his 2023 draft-eligible RB peers.

Although Bigsby is not overly athletic, based on his "meh" testing at the combine. 26th percentile vertical jump, 54th percentile broad jump and a 4.56 40-yard dash (47th percentile). Bigsby did improve on his 40-time at Auburn's pro day, running a 4.45.

He was drafted by the Jaguars in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft and will compete for the No. 2 job behind Travis Etienne. Head coach Doug Pederson has spoken all offseason about building a deep RB room, so the Bigsby selection was not shocking.