Fantasy Football Player Notes

Chase followed up a stellar rookie campaign with a banner sophomore season. He was sixth in target share (29.3%), ninth in air yard share (36.6%), and the WR4 in fantasy points per game. Despite only playing 12 regular season games, he finished third in red zone targets and fourth in total touchdowns. Chase is a top-three fantasy receiver in 2023 and a locked-in top-five pick.

It truly was a tale of two seasons for Joe Mixon. In Weeks 1-8, Mixon struggled immensely averaging 3.3 yards per carry as the RB19 in points per game. No running back scored fewer fantasy points versus expected because he just couldn't seem to find the end zone. But as the newer pieces of the offensive line started to gel, Mixon's production took off in the form of positive touchdown regression. He finished the season (including the postseason) as PFF's second-highest-graded running back headlined by an elite 5-touchdown game versus the Panthers in Week 9. In his eight healthy games from Weeks 9 to the conference championship, he averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game (equivalent to RB5 on the season). All in all, Mixon finished 6th in touches per game (19.5) and second in carries inside the 10-yard line (28) from Weeks 1-17, but only scored five touchdowns. The career-high receiving usage (60 catches for 441 yards on 70 targets) paved the way for Mixon's RB8 finish in points per game. However, it should be noted that the team did involve Samaje Perine more down the stretch after he filled in admirably during Mixon's injury (Weeks 11-13). Perine out-snapped Mixon in two of the Bengals' three playoff games and routinely ran more routes. But Mixon still averaged nearly four catches per game. I wouldn't envision his receiving role on early downs changing even if he loses snaps to another RB on third downs. Former Michigan running back Chris Evans projects to take a larger role on third downs after Samaje Perine signed with the Denver Broncos.

Tee Higgins saw declines across the board last season as he fell from WR12 in fantasy points per game to WR26. His final stat lines look eerily similar, but we must remember he accomplished his 2021 accolades in only 14 games. Higgins saw declines in his PFF receiving grade (82.8 vs. 78.8), target share (23.9% vs. 18.6%), and yards per route run (2.18 vs. 1.80 per PFF). In 2021 Higgins competed with Ja'Marr Chase as the complimentary co-lead of the Bengals' passing attack, but we saw that change in 2022. After Chase returned in Week 13, he saw a 29.6% target share and 38.3% air yard share, while Higgins lagged at 20.2% and 31.1%. With Chase distancing himself more from Higgins in the pecking order, Higgins is best valued as a WR2 in 2023.

Brimming with swag and surrounded by ample pass-catching weaponry, Joe Burrow has firmly established himself as a premium fantasy quarterback. Burrow finished QB4 in fantasy scoring last season after throwing a career-high 35 TD passes. Over the last two years, Burrow has completed 69.3% of his throws, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He added some value with his legs in 2022, running for five touchdowns. Burrow gets to throw to the fabulous WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the Bengals have made significant investments in their offensive line. A training-camp calf injury will keep Burrow sidelined throughout fantasy draft season, but he's expected back in time for Week 1.

After back-to-back seasons as a WR3 in fantasy, Boyd dipped to WR45 in fantasy points per game last year. Boyd's target share dwindled to 13.5% (71st) as he finished outside the top 60 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate. Boyd isn't a sexy name to plug in your starting lineup, but he remains tied to Joe Burrow, and when the Bengals get a soft matchup against a nickel corner, expect Burrow to feed him. Despite the down season, Boyd still had two weeks with WR1 fantasy finishes and eight games with WR36 or higher fantasy output. Boyd is a WR5/6 worth a bench spot for his weekly flex week upside.

Hopes were high for Irv Smith Jr. in 2022 after he missed the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus in his knee, but Smith endured a high-ankle sprain in Week 8 and didn't make it back until Week 18. Smith finished the year with 25 catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns in eight games. Smith won't turn 25 until August, so there's still hope that the former second-round draft pick will become a fantasy-viable tight end, but he's likely to be an afterthought in most 2023 fantasy drafts.

Tied to one of the NFL's better offenses, Bengals kicker Evan McPherson is a solid fantasy option in 2023. After tying for 7th in kicker fantasy scoring in 2021, McPherson tied for 19th last year, although he finished just 10 fantasy points out of the top 10. McPherson has finished top 10 in extra-point conversions in both of his seasons as a pro, and he figures to get plenty of PAT attempts in 2023, with the Bengals fielding one of the most potent offenses in the league. McPherson has made 83.9% of his career FG attempts -- not a great percentage -- but he's been remarkably accurate on longer tries, converting 14-of-16 attempts of 50 yards or longer.