Fantasy Football Player Notes

Mixon's value was up in the air for a week or two before he agreed on a new deal with the Bengals that will keep him in Cincinnati for several more seasons. With that locked in, Mixon is good to go for the 2020 season and it should be a good one. The downside for Mixon is his lack of usage in the passing game, which admittedly limits his upside a tad. But he was a true workhorse back over the latter half of the 2019 season, and will now be playing behind a better offensive line with a better quarterback in an offense that should score plenty of points. He may not have the ceiling of the top three or four backs being drafted, but if he's healthy, RB1 status is nearly a lock. Draft him with confidence.

After finishing as the WR17 in 2018 and then the WR23 in 2019, Boyd's being disrespected in fantasy drafts, coming off the board outside the top 30 wide receivers. Sure, A.J. Green is back in the lineup, but drafters aren't high on him, either. Oddly enough, Boyd was a better fantasy asset with Green in the lineup in 2018. Boyd is 25 years old, it's surely not his age. Do people really think that Joe Burrow will be a downgrade from Andy Dalton? That can't be it. Looking at Burrow at LSU, his top receiver (stat-wise) was Justin Jefferson, who put up a stupid 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jefferson was his slot receiver. While it's a different offense, we know Boyd saw 147 targets in the first year of Zac Taylor's offense. He's the ideal WR3 who's already proven to be better than that, and if the public is right on Green being "done", then Boyd would be a mega-hit in fantasy.

I get it, he hasn't been healthy the last two years. However, when he's been on the field, Green has been a legitimate superstar. Since 2000, here's the list of wide receivers who've posted WR2 or better type numbers at a higher percentage than Green: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham. That's the end of the list. He's played his entire career with Andy Dalton. Now moving to Joe Burrow, the quality of the targets should improve. You could argue that Green didn't have a chance to work with Burrow this offseason, but that's the case with all of Burrow's new group of pass catchers. There is legitimate top-10 upside with Green, which is extremely hard to find where he's being drafted. There's risk, but with where he's being drafted, it's worth it.

Trusting a rookie quarterback in fantasy? Nonsense. Now? After we practically had no offseason? It sounds crazy, and it probably is. However, I don't know if I've seen a quarterback with Burrow's confidence and swag come into the league in a long time. He's also walking into a situation where he has one of the best wide receiver depth charts in the league (when healthy). The offense that Zac Taylor ran last year presented plenty of opportunity, as Andy Dalton finished with the 12th most expected fantasy points despite missing three full games. He threw the ball at least 36 times in 11-of-13 games, including three games with 50-plus attempts. The offensive line is a problem, though it helps he'll get last year's first-round pick Jonah Williams back at left tackle. While the pass attempts and talent at wide receiver are great, what should attract you to Burrow is his willingness to run with the ball. Sure, he broke records as a passer at LSU, but he also rushed for nearly 800 yards and 12 touchdowns over the last two years. That adds breakout potential to a quarterback, so when you combine that with his arm talent, he makes for an ideal QB2 in fantasy. The Bengals defense is in a complete rebuild mode, and while they've added talent this offseason, it'll take time for them to come together. They allowed 26.2 points per game last year (8th most), so if they continue to struggle, Burrow could become 2020's version of Jameis Winston.

It's kind of crazy how fast everyone fell off the Bernard bandwagon, as he was once considered a borderline RB1. He is obviously behind Joe Mixon on the depth chart, but that's the only player standing between him and a 15-touch role. Mixon is also in a contract year and has threatened a holdout without a new contract. If we get closer to the NFL season and Mixon still hasn't been locked up long term, Bernard should be someone you consider in the late rounds.

We don't know for certain who the No. 3 wide receiver will be in the offense to start the year, but knowing there's been limited workouts, my guess would be that Ross is the guy. He compliments A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd well, while Tee Higgins would clash with Green. If you don't think Ross is a good football player, I urge you to get on NFL Game Pass and watch him. There were a lot of times he was open for what would've been a long gain/touchdown, but Andy Dalton simply missed him. Insert Joe Burrow, who completed 76.3 percent of his passes at LSU last year, including feather-like touch on his deep ball. Ross saw five-plus targets in 6-of-8 games last year, so it's clear that Zac Taylor felt he could make a difference. With both Green and Boyd healthy, Ross won't be seeing that consistent of targets, but should either of them miss time, Ross would be a plug-and-play upside option. Contrary to belief around the industry, Ross should be selected in one of the final rounds of your draft.

Seibert was adequate last year hitting 86.2% of his field-goal attempts, though he was just 30-of-35 on extra points. The Cleveland offense should be improved this year, so there's a good chance that Seibert will see more than the 29 field-goal chances he saw last year. Still, he's not worth drafting in standard-sized leagues, given his middling accuracy.

I believe the Bengals selected their eventual A.J. Green replacement in Higgins. He's not the most physically gifted or athletic receiver, but Higgins continually makes plays look easy. The game simply comes to him naturally. He has a lot of room to grow as a complete receiver, though, so he should be learning and paying attention to Green's habits throughout the 2020 season. Should Green miss time, Higgins would likely get the nod over the inefficient Auden Tate, who finished 23 spots lower than he should've based on his expected fantasy output. Some are expecting Higgins to start as the No. 3 wide receiver over John Ross, but I'm not one of them, especially with the shortened offseason. If any of the starters were to miss time, Higgins would absolutely be worth a pickup.

The return of A.J. Green pushed Tate down the depth chart. The second-round draft pick of Tee Higgins buried him. Despite playing just 12 games, Tate ranked 51st in targets among wide receivers last year with 80 of them. Despite being 6-foot-5 and 228 pounds, he scored on just one of them. Clearly, the Bengals did not think of him as Green's successor. It's possible that he's the handcuff to Green because he knows the offense and played that role last year, but it'd only be a matter of time before the rookie Higgins took over.

The combination of Uzomah and Tyler Eifert totaled 103 targets last year, which isn't bad on the surface, but the tight ends amounted for just a 17.4 percent target share despite A.J. Green missing the entire season. It did seem like Uzomah took over as the starter as the year went on, catching 16-of-20 targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns over the final five games of the season. It surely helped that Sample was inactive from Week 11 forward. Knowing that Sample was a second-round pick under this coaching staff, they're likely going to look for reasons to get him on the field. Sample did grade out as a better blocker than Uzomah in both run and pass blocking, too. They're both going to get playing time, but they'll cancel each other out when it comes to upside. Unless one misses time, it'll be a situation to avoid.