Fantasy Football Player Notes

Amon-Ra St. Brown proved that his sensational rookie season stretch run was no fluke as he stepped up as one of the best young wide receivers in the game. St. Brown finished as the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share, third in target per route run rate, eighth in red zone targets, and fourth in YAC. With only six total touchdowns, St. Brown could be even better in 2023 if the volume remains stable. After starting with seven red zone targets over his first four games, he only saw one red zone target over the next four weeks. Over his final nine games, he amassed 15 red zone targets. If that usage remains stable inside the 20 for 2023, St. Brown could easily be staring at a double-digit touchdown season and a top-five fantast wideout finish.

Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future NFL running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%).

At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. And the Detroit Lions hardly seem concerned about his size, considering they selected him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. The draft capital alone mitigates any workload concerns for Gibbs based on his somewhat smaller frame. Detroit paid a premium, and that means he is going to get his touches (likely high value in the form of receptions) regardless of what the team paid David Montgomery during free agency.

Last season ex-Lions and newly acquired Eagles running back D'Andre Swift was uber-efficient on a per-touch basis: fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift (10.3) and Jamaal Williams (16.1) combined for 26.4 touches per game. Even with a projected 50-50 split, Gibbs is looking at a 224-touch workload. With a 55% split, Gibbs is flirting with nearly 250 total touches over a 17-game season. Simply put, the former Alabama running back needs to be ranked as back-end RB1.

David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions this offseason, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging just 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.
And with the new addition of 12th overall draft pick, Jahmyr Gibbs, it's hard to envision Montgomery as anything more than a fantasy RB2/RB3 with the highly coveted goal-line role likely his main path to appealing fantasy production. Keep in mind that last season, Jamaal Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line en route to an RB12 fantasy finish and a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns.

A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will supplement solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' role from 2022 - 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game - and Montgomery's contract suggests the team will be featuring enough (likely as a rusher on early downs) to be fantasy viable alongside Gibbs.

After disappointing seasons with the Rams in 2019 and 2020, then a lackluster first season with the Lions in 2021, Jared Goff turned in a solid year for Detroit in 2022, throwing for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns, good for a QB10 finish in fantasy scoring. Goff thrived under first-year Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who'll announced that he'll be back as Detroit's OC after getting some head-coach buzz at the end of the regular season. Goff will also have some exciting pass catchers to work with in WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, along with WR Jameson Williams after he serves a six-game gambling suspension.

Don't lose faith in Jameson Williams. Despite his six-game suspension, Williams remains an extremely talented wide receiver entering his sophomore season with a mountain of upside. Williams was placed in bubble wrap in 2022 by the Detroit Lions, who valued being careful with their blazing-fast rookie coming off a major injury (ACL tear). Assuming Williams is good to go for 2023, he's still the same player that ranked 13th in yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers in 2021 (minimum 50 targets). Williams could be the number two option in this passing attack when he returns behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams is a WR4 that could crush his ADP in 2023.

An early-second-round selection in this year's NFL Draft, LaPorta should step right into a significant role with the Lions and could see decent target volume right away, particularly with Lions WR Jameson Williams serving a six-game gambling suspension at the start of the season. The 6-3, 250-pound LaPorta ran a 4.59 at the NFL Scouting Combine and posted a Relative Athletic Score of 9.02. He has a chance to provide low-end TE1 value as a rookie, but TE2 production might be a more reasonable expectation.

After Week 3 last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones saw an uptick in his usage as he developed into a sold (not spectacular) weekly WR3. In Weeks 4-18, he handled a 19.3% target share and a 28.6% air yard share churning out 1.66 yards per route run. He was a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy, scoring ten times. With Elijah Moore in town, Peoples-Jones will see weekly competition to remain the number two/three option in this passing attack, even if we don't throw David Njoku into this conversation. Peoples-Jones is a WR5 that could walk right back into WR3 production if Njoku can't stay healthy and Moore flops.

The Jets leaned on Zonovan Knight down the stretch in 2022 after injuries hit their backfield between Breece Hall and Michael Carter. "Bam" Knight forced a broken tackle on 34% of his rushes - which ranked No. 1 in NFL last season among RBs with at least 80 carries. The 2022 undrafted free agent completely supplanted Carter as the team's RB1 after the latter suffered an injury in Week 12. He maintained starting usage even after Carter returned to the lineup in Week 14. In Knight's first three games as the featured back (Weeks 12-14), Knight averaged 15.2 PPR points, 76 rushing yards and 18.6 touches per game. Also was a perfect 10-for-10 in the receiving game. Per PFF, for the next four weeks he was running into WALLs with a rotating carousel at QB. -7 yards before contact. 77 yards after contact for a total of 70 rushing yards. He earned it all. Considering Carter finished dead last among all RBs in offensive rushing EPA/attempt last season, I'd bet Knight gets the nod over him on the Week 1 depth chart behind Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall. Per the Athletic's Zak Rosenblatt, Knight has been the Jets best running back in camp. And it's not just one source. Robby Sabo of JetsXFactor also believes Carter is losing this RB battle, quote saying, "Where Michael Carter lacks, Bam Knight excels." Also references Knight's comfort running behind a fullback which should be a new wrinkle in the Jets run game under Nathaniel Hackett.