Fantasy Football Player Notes

Javonte Williams looked like a shelf of his former self in the first season. Yes, I know this was his first season coming off a devastating knee injury, but it still wasn't pretty. Volume wasn't the issue for the RB31 last season, as he rolled up 264 touches, but his efficiency numbers were scary. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Could he bounce back in 2024 and look more like the eventual stud we saw in 2021 and 2022? Sure, it's possible. Is it also possible that a back with a 40th percentile speed score and 72nd percentile burst score never regains his former juice? Yep. Williams looks entrenched as Denver's early down guy, but don't be surprised if Jaleel McLaughlin eats into his carries more this season and capsizes his pass-game usage. Williams is an RB2/3.

Without any ideas about who the Broncos QB will be in 2024, it's hard to make firm stances about Courtland Sutton. But, Sutton likely won't benefit from the same TD production for 2 years in a row. This past season made a mend for 2022 when he was so horrible at scoring. But now that things have leveled out, after a back-to-back 2-TD season with 10 scores, we are looking more at him in the 4-6 TD range for 2024. And that's going to make things tougher on him, because aside from TDs, Sutton's usage wasn't as great as the WR35 overall. IN fact, it looks pretty similar to Jerry Jeudy's aside from the TDs (10 vs 2). Both guys had 1,000-plus air yards (36% vs 37%), around 90 targets (21% vs 20%), 750-plus receiving yards and just under 60 receptions. But with Jeudy traded to the Browns, that should cement Sutton's floor as the team's projected No. 1 WR regardless fo QB play. Per John Daigle of 4for4, Sutton has a 23% target share without Jeudy the last 3 seasons.

A low-key winner of the Jerry Jeudy trade is second-year Broncos WR, Marvin Mims. Mims' role was redundant with Jeudy's last season, hence his limited playing time. His overall lackluster rookie year was tough due to lack of opportunity. He ran a route on 41% of the dropbacks - that outside the top 100. And we did see flashes with a 100-yard effort in his second game, along with another 73-yard game when he earned a season-high 5 targets back in Week 3. Was also named Second-Team All-Pro as a returner. Leave the light on for Mims to take off in Year 2 should he play starting snaps, which is much more likely with Jeudy gone.
Broncos HC Sean Payton said at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, that Mims' progression as a receiver was hindered because he played the same role as Jeudy. WR depth on Denver hurt Mims. Payton also said they were generally happy when they did get Mims involved - duh - and that should continue in Year 2.

Fully expect me to be above consensus regarding Jaleel McLaughlin this season. Last year, he was electric with every touch he earned. Among all running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts or 20 targets, McLaughlin ranked 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and fourth in yards per route run. Denver made it a point to get him involved in the passing game when he was on the field as he also ranked first in targets per route run. McLaughlin could easily earn more opportunities this season, as Samaje Perine wasn't amazing last season, and Javonte Williams looked like a shadow of his former self. If McLaughlin earns Sean Payton's trust, he could be an RB3/4 that vaults into steady RB2 production.