Fantasy Football Player Notes

Henry was a monster in his first season in Baltimore, rushing for 1,921 yards and scoring 18 touchdowns in his age-30 season. Age and mileage suggest that Henry is a risky bet, but the man seems indestructible and impervious to age. He won't catch many passes, but Henry should once again compile big-time rushing numbers.

Lamar Jackson stole the QB1 crown away last year. It was his first time as the QB1 in fantasy points per game since his monstrous 2019 campaign. I know this won't shock anyone, but his rushing production remained stellar as he led all quarterbacks with 915 rushing yards while ranking tenth in rushing touchdowns and fourth in carries per game. Jackson also took more strides as a passer, finishing with a career-high 4,172 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns. Hopefully, the shade that he received earlier in his career as a passer is dead and buried ten feet deep because he is a stellar thrower of the football. Among 40 qualifying passers last season, Jackson ranked first in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, and seventh in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Jackson could be the QB1 overall again in 2025.

Zay Flowers is very talented and worth the first-round pick the Ravens spent on him in 2023, but the nature of the Ravens' offense works makes Flowers an inconsistent fantasy performer. There were eight games last season in which Flowers had six or fewer targets. There were also eight games in which Flowers finished with fewer than 40 receiving yards.
The problem is that the Ravens ran the ball on 52.5% of their offensive snaps this year. Only the Eagles were run-heavier. That probably won't change much this year with Lamar Jackson at quarterback and Derrick Henry at running back for Baltimore, so we should probably expect more inconsistency from Flowers in his third NFL season.

Andrews is one of the best tight end values this year with the talent to revisit top 3-5 fantasy tight end status. Last year, Andrews was the TE7 in fantasy points per game, but it was heavily influenced by his 11 receiving scores as he ranked only 14th in receptions and ninth in receiving yards among tight ends. His recovery from tightrope surgery impacted his early season effectiveness and usage. In Weeks 1-9, he was the TE16 in fantasy points per game, posting an 11.3% target share, an 18% TPRR, 1.77 YPRR, 32.1 receiving yards per game, a 13.9% first-read share, and 0.110 first downs per route run. After Week 9, every discernable per-route metric that we should care about improved for Andrews as he posted an 18.1% target share, a 24% TPRR, 2.31 YPRR, 48 receiving yards per game, an 18.9% first-read share, and 0.127 first downs per route run as the TE5 in fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Buy the dip on Andrews and enjoy another stellar year from the Baltimore stalwart.

The oft-injured Rashod Bateman didn't miss a game last season for the first time in his four-year NFL career. Not surprisingly, he put up the best numbers of his career, finishing with 45-756-9. Bateman averaged only 4.2 targets per game but averaged 16.8 yards per catch and 10.5 yards per target. He had more than his fair share of big plays, with 11 catches of 20 or more yards, and four catches of 40 or more yards. It's hard to see Bateman significantly boosting his target share with Lamar Jackson spreading the ball around to multiple pass catchers, and with the Ravens so run-heavy. But Bateman's encouraging 2024 performance makes him a worthy bench stash.

Isaiah Likely's path to fantasy relevance has been blocked by fellow Ravens TE Mark Andrews for most of Likely's three NFL seasons. But Likely has had his moments, particularly when Andrews has been sidelined. In the nine games Andrews has missed over the last three years, Likely has averaged 3.4 catches, 50.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. Prorated, that would work out to 58 catches, 855 yards and 11 touchdowns over a full season. Likely and Andrews are both in the final years of their contracts with the Ravens. Likely has intriguing upside, but we might not get to see it until he and Andrews have been decoupled.

DeAndre Hopkins signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Ravens, but the 33-year-old veteran is more of a real-life depth addition than a fantasy asset at this stage. Coming off a WR48 finish (WR59 in points per game) with 639 yards and 6 TDs in 2024, Hopkins faded badly down the stretch - failing to top 40 yards in any of his final seven games with the Chiefs. He was at least targeted at a high rate (25% target rate per route run), but part of that stems from his low weekly snap share. In Baltimore, he joins a crowded WR room and will likely operate as a rotational possession option in a run-first offense. Unless injuries hit, Hopkins is unlikely to command enough volume to matter in most fantasy leagues.

Following in the footsteps of Justin Tucker will not be an easy task. I'd be bearish that rookie Tyler Loop can take that step immediately in Year 1. Baltimore plays one game indoors all season.