Fantasy Football Player Notes
2023 Draft Rankings
|
84.
Bijan Robinson
RB
Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the consensus No. 1 RB across all draft publications. B-Rob finished the 2022 season as PFF's second-highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which have shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. And among last year's class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). Factor in that Robinson also finished 3rd among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there's no question as to why he's the 1.01 already in rookie drafts. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a three-down running back who never leaves the field.
During NFL Combine testing, Robinson ran a 4.46 40-yard dash. He also jumped 37" in the vertical (81st percentile) and 124" in the broad jump (86th percentile). Per PlayerProfiler.com that awarded B-Rob an 89th percentile speed score. His 1.52 10-yard split nearly matched track star Devon Achane (1.51) and actually equaled Jamyr Gibbs (1.52). |
|
107.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
I was vehemently against drafting Ezekiel Elliott across all formats in 2022. I was convinced that his best days were behind him and that Tony Pollard was the clear-cut better running back in the Dallas backfield. And I felt like the stance was mostly correct. Zeke finished as RB19 versus Pollard's RB7 status. Elliott posted career lows in yards per carry (3.7), receptions and targets. But he was an absolute TD monster, finishing second in expected touchdowns with 12 real rushing scores. Only Joe Mixon and Jamaal Williams totaled more carries inside the 10-yard line than Elliott. And ultimately the scoring was what made Zeke a usable fantasy asset especially after he returned from injury. He scored eight touchdowns from Weeks 11-17. For him to sustain any fantasy value in 2023 and beyond, Elliott will need to carve out a role as a team's primary red-zone back.
|
|
124.
Kareem Hunt
RB
There should have been a stronger case made that the Browns offense would struggle in 2022, making Kareem Hunt a tough bet to also deliver as the 1B to Nick Chubb's 1A. Hunt's bizarre lack of usage is what really held him back, but highly drafting No. 2 RBs in offenses with major question marks or turnovers is a tough sell. Hunt played over 50% of the snaps once all year (Week 1) and averaged just 9.4 touches per game, which ranked outside the top 50 running backs in 2022. In 2021, Hunt averaged nearly 3 more touches per game. The 2023 free-agent rusher was also not particularly efficient with a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. His days in Cleveland are most certainly over which opens the door for him to return to fantasy RB1 status as a new team's bellcow.
|
|
126.
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
Incoming rookie Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future NFL running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%). At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. NFL teams don't seem concerned about his size with his expected draft position at 36th overall. His explosive skill set was on full display during the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine when Gibbs blazed through the drills. He ran a 4.36 40-yard dash (second to only Devon Achane, 97th percentile). Although, Gibbs did only hit 33.5" in the vertical jump (41st percentile).
|
|
139.
Leonard Fournette
RB
Tom Brady's retirement marked the end of Leonard Fournette with the Buccaneers. The team was pressed up versus the salary cap (31st in available salary cap space) and they took the out in Fournette's contract by releasing him. With Fournette out, Rachaad White would become the entrenched starter entering the season. White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) versus Fournette's 11.3 (RB23). White wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was better than the 28-year-old on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13) and 6th-worst in PFF rushing grade (67.6). Lombardi Lenny posted his worst efficiency marks since joining the Bucs in 2022, ranking 4th-worst in NFL next-gen stats rushing yards over expectation per attempt (-0.36). There was also no better display of the Bucs' hierarchy in their backfield than White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just five times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). Fournette's disappointing campaign - outside all the dump-off receptions/targets - has definitely hurt his interest in the FA market.
|
|
141.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
Smith-Njiba won't burn you in the open field with his raw speed, but that isn't necessary for him to succeed. He's a route tactician with the route-running chops of an NFL veteran. Smith-Njiba's snap at the top of his stem is excellent, which allows him to create easy separation. Any team investing high draft capital in him knows what they are getting: a high-volume wide receiver that can work both inside and on the perimeter. Yes, Smith-Njiba was a slot receiver in college, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the intangibles to get loose on the boundary. He wins with excellent, quick footwork at the line and in space. He's more quick than fast. Also, in saying that, it has to be mentioned that he is plenty quick to win in the NFL. While it's not a huge part of his game (only 16.1% of his 2021 target volume), he can win on vertical routes. He flashes the ability to stack corners on verticals from the slot easily. Smith-Njiba was ninth in yards per route run on deep targets, tied for first In PFF deep receiving grade, and second in passer rating when targeted on routes 20-plus yards in 2021 (minimum 15 deep targets). Smith-Njigba could be an immediate target hog in the NFL. He will be an immediate asset to the run game. He's a tenacious blocker who engages well with defenders and anchors them. He won't blow defenders out of their cleats, but he has the functional strength to hold running lanes or clear a path.
|
|
144.
Quentin Johnston
WR
|
|
146.
Jordan Addison
WR
Addison is fluid and silky smooth through his routes. He's quick in and out of his breaks. He displays nuance in his routes with pacing, subtle head fakes, and his understanding of leverage. His change of direction ability is effortless. He can gear down easily and jab step during a route without losing speed. Addison has a decent burst after the catch, but it's not likely to ever be a calling card. He dealt with drops early in his collegiate career, with 14.3% and 9.9% drop rates before 2022. He displayed growth here in 2022, decreasing that mark to 3.3%. He has strong hands, though, with contested catch rates of 53.8% and 55.6% before 2022. Addison will never be confused as a body catcher as he routinely plucks the ball from the air away from this body. Addison is a versatile wide receiver that played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. His superb route running and short area separation skills allow him to play multiple roles fluidly. Addison's varied release package at this stage of his career is impressive. Addison reminds me of watching DeVonta Smith with a difference in play strength. Smith played above his weight class, but Addison played at his weight.
|
|
156.
Zach Charbonnet
RB
Zach Charbonnet started his college career at Michigan in 2019, where he started ahead of the future NFL draft selection, Hassan Haskins. But in 2020, Charbonnet's numbers regressed in a six-game season for Michigan due to COVID-19. He split time with Haskins again, while also losing out to work to another NFL-drafted Chris Evans and up-and-coming running back star, Blake Corum. Charbonnet was part of a major running back by the committee as a Wolverine so he transferred to UCLA in 2021 and immediately saw his production skyrocket. He would post a 25% dominator rating as a junior, finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade. Charbonnet's 2022 senior production was also elite, as he finished 4th in PFF rushing grade among all RBs topping his grade from the year before. But more importantly, for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot, 214-pound running back improved on his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade among his draft class.
Charbonnet didn't dazzle in the 40-yard dash, but he sure impressed during the jumping drills. 37" vertical (81st percentile) and 122" broad jump (78th percentile). |
|
157.
Jerick McKinnon
RB
From Weeks 10-17, both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 half-point scorers. Jerick McKinnon was the RB7 in points per game, third in RB receptions at 35 with seven receiving TDs. The Chiefs scatback made the most of his opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield especially with Mecole Hardman sidelined. Because Hardman's injury correlated with a massive spike in usage for McKinnnon. In eight games with Hardman in the lineup, McKinnon was averaging close to just three targets per game. That number jumped to five in the nine games with Hardman out, as did McKinnon's receptions totals (2-to-4). His yardage also spiked from just under 20 yards to nearly 40 receiving yards per game. It's clear at this point in McKinnon's career that he cannot be deployed as anything more than a breather/pass-catching back in the rotation with another. He is already 30 years old and probably has the most fantasy value if he remains a Chief. His re-signing with KC would also be ideal for anyone invested in Pacheco, as a McKinnon return would make it less likely that KC invests significantly into another running back option. If ends up signing elsewhere, I'd be extremely bearish on his fantasy outlook as he requires such a specific role for success.
|
|
185.
Zay Flowers
WR
|
|
210.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR
|
|
217.
Jalin Hyatt
WR
|
|
219.
Ryan Succop
K
|
|
223.
Robbie Gould
K
|
|
236.
Tank Bigsby
RB
|
|
242.
Josh Downs
WR
|
|
243.
Bryce Young
QB
Likely to be a top-five pick in this year's NFL Draft, Alabama's Bryce Young is a pinpoint passer with a strong arm, quick release and the sort of field-reading ability that will endear him to his first NFL offensive coordinator. Young is agile, but he isn't going to add a great deal of fantasy value with his legs. The biggest concern with Young is his small frame. He's listed at 6-0, 194 pounds. The size issue won't prevent Young from being a top draft pick, and he's a good bet to be a Week 1 starter for whichever team selects him.
|
|
252.
Devon Achane
RB
Devon Achane finally got the chance to be the clear-cut No. 1 running back for the Aggies in 2022 with Isaiah Spiller drafted to the NFL and the uber-explosive Achane did not disappoint. The Texas A&M running back speedster rushed for 1,100 yards and 8 rushing TDs while catching 36 balls for 196 yards on 44 targets. Good for a 33% dominator rating a year after earning a 26% dominator rating while splitting time with Spiller. And although Achane will likely go through the wringer from NFL draft pundits when it comes to his smaller stature - 5-foot-81/2, 188 pounds - he put any "can he handle a large workload" concerns to rest in his final game versus LSU. Achane totaled 38 carries for 215 rushing yards and two TDs after missing a few games with an injury. The speedster also offers top-tier kickoff return ability, which will surely help boost his draft stock and get him active on game days. Achane finished as PFF's 3rd-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players.
Achane definitely boosted his draft stock after testing at the 2023 NFL Combine. He blazed a 4.32 40-time - while weighing in at 188 pounds. |
|
253.
C.J. Stroud
QB
Projected to be a top pick in this year's NFL Draft, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud is a mature passer with a strong, accurate arm and the sort of field-reading and decision-making skills that make offensive coordinators smile. Stroud isn't a running QB, but nor is he a statue in the pocket -- he has functional mobility to avoid sacks. With a number of QB-needy teams picking early in the draft, there's a good chance Stroud will start for someone in Week 1.
|
|
263.
Michael Mayer
TE
Regarded by many as the top rookie tight end in the Class of 2023, Michael Mayer of Notre Dame has drawn comparisons to Jason Witten because he shines as both a pass catcher and blocker. Mayer had more than 800 receiving yards in each of his last two college seasons, scoring seven touchdowns in 2021 and nine in 2022. He's likely to be a first-round pick in this year's draft and could provide immediate fantasy value if he lands in the right spot.
|
|
277.
Kendre Miller
RB
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller's career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He's explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).
Miller did not test at the NFL Combine (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but I would assume that he will test in some capacity, if possible, at TCU's Pro Day on March 30th. Based on his size and other measurables, his closest comparables per Mockdraftable.com include Tyler Allgeier, Jeff Wilson, and Stevan Ridley. |
|
278.
Julio Jones
WR
|
|
279.
Brett Maher
K
|
|
283.
Israel Abanikanda
RB
|
|
284.
Kenyan Drake
RB
|
|
287.
Sean Tucker
RB
|
|
288.
Kayshon Boutte
WR
|
|
289.
Zach Evans
RB
|
|
295.
Latavius Murray
RB
Latavius Murray performed well when Denver scooped him up during the middle of last season after Javonte Williams went down with a devastating knee injury. In 12 games from Weeks 6-18, Murray was the RB24 in half-point scoring averaging 10.3 points per game (RB30). He was PFF's 10th-highest graded rusher (82.8) and averaged 15 touches per game. Murray also averaged nearly 70 yards from scrimmage and 3 targets per game. Not too shabby for the 33-year-old running back.
|
|
|
299.
Dalton Kincaid
TE
|
|
|
300.
Roschon Johnson
RB
|
|
302.
Richie James Jr.
WR
|
|
304.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K
|
|
307.
Mason Crosby
K
|
|
310.
Anthony Richardson
QB
Anthony Richardson might have the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this year's NFL Draft. The 6-4, 235-pound Richardson has ideal size, a rocket for his arm and eye-opening running ability -- all of which was on full display at this year's NFL Scouting Combine, where Richardson tested like Superman. But Richardson was a starter for only one of his three seasons at the University of Florida, and after completing only 53.8% of his passes in 2022, there are questions about his accuracy. Richardson is a project who might not start for an NFL team right away. When he eventually become a starter, Richardson can tide over his fantasy managers with rushing production while his passing skills are developing.
|
|
313.
Jarvis Landry
WR
|
|
315.
Melvin Gordon III
RB
|
|
317.
J.D. McKissic
RB
|
|
|
319.
DeWayne McBride
RB
|
|
320.
Darrel Williams
RB
|
|
322.
Will Levis
QB
Likely to be a top-10 draft pick, Will Levis has immense potential but might need a few years before he's ready to fulfill it. Levis has prototypical size (6-3, 232 pounds), a cannon arm and dynamic rushing ability. But Levis is coming off a somewhat disappointing final college season at Kentucky, and he might not be a Week 1 starter for whichever team drafts him. He'll get a shot at some point in his rookie season, however, and perhaps Levis' running ability can float his fantasy value while he develops as a passer.
|
|
325.
Rashee Rice
WR
|
|
|
326.
Tyjae Spears
RB
|
|
|
328.
Luke Musgrave
TE
|
|
|
329.
Cedric Tillman
WR
|
|
331.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
RB
|
|
332.
Chosen Anderson
WR
|
|
333.
Dontrell Hilliard
RB
|
|
335.
Justin Jackson
RB
|
|
338.
Kenny Golladay
WR
|
|
|
339.
Evan Hull
RB
|
|
340.
Randy Bullock
K
|
|
|
341.
Kenny McIntosh
RB
|
|
|
342.
Puka Nacua
WR
|
|
344.
Marlon Mack
RB
|
|
345.
Marvin Mims
WR
|
|
347.
Foster Moreau
TE
|
|
351.
Rex Burkhead
RB
|
|
352.
Mark Ingram II
RB
|
|
|
353.
Xavier Hutchinson
WR
|
|
355.
Tyler Davis
K
|
|
|
356.
Sam Laporta
TE
|
|
|
360.
Darnell Washington
TE
|
|
|
361.
Eric Gray
RB
|
|
|
374.
Chase Brown
RB
|
|
|
375.
Parker Washington
WR
|
|
376.
Carson Wentz
QB
After washing out as the Colts' starter in 2021, Carson Wentz was similarly disappointing in Washington last season, averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt over eight games. Wentz is unlikely to begin the 2023 season as a starter, though it's possible he could make a few early-season starts for a team looking to bring along a rookie quarterback slowly.
|
|
|
382.
Deuce Vaughn
RB
|
|
383.
Sammy Watkins
WR
|
|
|
384.
A.T. Perry
WR
|
|
|
385.
Mohamed Ibrahim
RB
|
|
|
390.
Jonathan Mingo
WR
|
|
393.
Damien Williams
RB
|
|
|
395.
Zack Kuntz
TE
|
|
410.
Byron Pringle
WR
|
|
411.
Kyle Rudolph
TE
|
|
412.
Matt Ryan
QB
|
|
415.
T.Y. Hilton
WR
|
|
|
422.
Tucker Kraft
TE
|
|
431.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR
|
|
|
432.
Zakhari Franklin
WR
|
|
|
433.
Tyler Scott
WR
|
|
434.
Sony Michel
RB
|
|
435.
Mike Davis
RB
|
|
|
439.
Keaton Mitchell
RB
|
|
443.
Giovani Bernard
RB
|
|
|
449.
Jayden Reed
WR
|
|
450.
Randall Cobb
WR
|
|
451.
Chris Moore
WR
|
|
|
454.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton
WR
|
|
|
455.
Dontayvion Wicks
WR
|
|
|
456.
Jake Moody
K
|
|
459.
Demarcus Robinson
WR
|
|
467.
Duke Johnson Jr.
RB
|
|
470.
DeAndre Carter
WR
|
|
473.
Jaret Patterson
RB
|
|
474.
Justin Watson
WR
|
|
|
476.
Luke Schoonmaker
TE
|
|
478.
Phillip Lindsay
RB
|
|
481.
Cameron Brate
TE
|
|
483.
Marcus Johnson
WR
|
|
|
484.
Trey Palmer
WR
|
|
|
489.
Michael Wilson
WR
|
|
490.
Geoff Swaim
TE
|
|
492.
Dan Arnold
TE
|
