Fantasy Football Player Notes

After averaging 73 receptions, 1,054 yards and eight touchdowns per year over six seasons in Seattle, D.K. Metcalf heads to Pittsburgh, where he'll be Aaron Rodgers' undisputed lead receiver following the Steelers' offseason trade of George Pickens. The question is how well Rodgers and Metcalf will mesh, and how well Metcalf will fit into Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system. It seems reasonable to expect midrange to low-end WR2 numbers for the 27-year-old Metcalf, although that could be a conservative expectation.

Jaylen Warren should once again have something close to a half share of the Pittsburgh backfield, with his tag-team partner now rookie Kaleb Johnson instead of Najee Harris. Warren is 5-8, 215 pounds, so he isn't cut out to handle 20 carries a game. But Warren has averaged 61.7 scrimmage yards per game over the last two years while sharing work with Harris, who didn't miss any games over that stretch. Warren has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his NFL career but has never averaged more than 8.8 carries per game in any of his three NFL seasons. The workload may not expand significantly, but perhaps we can squeeze a few more touchdowns out of Warren, who's scored only six TDs in 48 career games.

Rookie Kaleb Johnson is expected to replace Najee Harris as the Steelers' primary early-down back. Johnson was a committee back his first two years at Iowa, then broke out with 240-1,537-21 rushing last fall. He's a powerful downhill runner who's hard to bring down if you hit him high. It's easy to envision him being an effective goal-line back in the NFL. A good fit for offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's zone-running scheme in Pittsburgh, Johnson is a patient runner who reads his blocks well. He doesn't have great long speed, doesn't change speeds often or make sharp cuts. Still, Johnson landed in a favorable spot and could make a big impact right away.

His first seven NFL seasons were unremarkable, but Jonnu Smith authored a stunning fantasy breakout in Year 8, establishing career highs in targets (111), catches (88), receiving yards (884) and touchdowns (8). Smith finished TE4 in overall PPR fantasy scoring and TE5 in fantasy points per game. Smith went nuclear late in the season, averaging 6.9 catches and 67.1 yards per game from Week 11 on. He scored seven TDs in those eight games and was TE1 in PPR fantasy scoring over that stretch, averaging 18.6 points per game. But a trade in late June sent Smith to the Steelers, where he'll share TE targets with Pat Freiermuth. That isn't necessarily a fantasy death sentence, since Steelers OC Arthur Smith loves using his tight ends, and the Steelers don't have much firepower. Still, it's hard to see a path for Smith to remain a top-10 fantasy tight end.

Adam Thielen proved last year that he still has something left in the tank. In the nine games last year that he played at least 58% of the snaps, he drew a 19.7% target share while averaging 63.9 receiving yards per game with 2.08 yards per route run with a 25.8% first-read share and 0.094 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Down the stretch (Weeks 12-18), when Bryce Young was revitalized, Thielen was the WR21 in fantasy points per game. Thielen isn't dust. Not even close. Last year, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 26th in separation and 53rd in route win rate. With the move to Minnesota, Thielen's season-long value takes a hit as he's likely the third or fourth option in the passing attack, but he's a strong add in managed leagues if you're drafting Jordan Addison or Rashee Rice. He'll get a bump in the first three games of the season with Addison out, which is good enough for him to patch a lineup in the flex for half of Rice's suspension. Thielen should be a solid flex option to open the season before turning into a decent bye week flex streaming option once Addison is back.

The Steelers were the DST4 in fantasy points per game last year. All they did in the offseason was upgrade their secondary significantly with the additions of Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey to rock alongside Joey Porter Jr. Pittsburgh tied for the league lead in turnovers last season.

Last season, in many aspects, Aaron Rodgers looked like a shell of his former self. He finished as the QB19 in fantasy points per game despite operating in an offense with the fourth-highest passing rate over expectation (per Fantasy Points Data). I don't know if he gets anywhere near that type of pass-happy offensive design with Arthur Smith carrying the play-calling headset. Yes, Pittsburgh (fourth-lowest passing rate over expectation) will pass more in 2025, but they WILL NOT be a top 5-10 passing rate team. Then we are left to rely upon per-dropback efficiency from Rodgers, which in the year 2025 is hard to do. Last season, among 40 qualifying passers, he ranked 29th in yards per attempt, 39th in CPOE, 22nd in catchable target rate, and had the eighth-highest off-target rate. Rodgers is likely headed toward a QB2 season for fantasy purposes, where he gets lost in the QB2 noise and is only a viable streaming option when the matchup is right.

The Steelers have little proven talent at wide receiver beyond new acquisition D.K. Metcalf, but Pat Freiermuth's 2025 target outlook is jeopardized by the arrival of TE Jonnu Smith, who went from Miami to Pittsburgh in a late-June trade. Freiermuth had 65 catches for 653 yards and seven touchdowns last year, finishing TE10 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is a former TE coach who likes to keep his tight ends prominently involved. The problem is that Smith like to use multiple tight ends, and Smith is coming off a strong season with the Dolphins.

The Steelers kicker finished second in points scored in 2024, averaging 11.2 PPG. He connected on 93% of his FG attempts and tied for the NFL league lead in field goals made (41). Unfortunately for Boswell, he has regressed immensely after any of his top-10 career finishes. Be careful chasing last year's stats from a 34-year-old kicker who hit more 50-yarders than the two years prior COMBINED.