Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year was the first time D.K. Metcalf hasn't finished as a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy points per game (WR30). Metcalf dealt with shoulder and knee injuries last year, which could also be contributing to his fall off. His per-route metrics don't paint a rosier picture, as he was 78th in separation, 89th in route win rate, and 64th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Yes, he did rank 36th in target share, 35th in yards per route run, and 20th in receiving yards per game, so it's not all doom and gloom surrounding Metcalf. There are reasons to believe in a bounceback here. He'll be the unquestioned top option in the Pittsburgh passing attack, which should help his weekly volume floor and ceiling. Aaron Rodgers isn't returning to his former glory, but if he can be serviceable, Metcalf should pay off as a volume-fueled WR2/3.

The Steelers jettisoned Najee Harris and drafted his replacement as their lead back in the third round of the NFL Draft. Last year, Harris operated in an offense that was fourth in rushing attempts as Harris soaked up 299 touches (10th-most). Even if we lower those year-one expectations for Johnson, even 250 touches would have ranked 21st in the NFL. Johnson brings a big play ability that has been lacking over the last 2-3 years. Last year, not only did he rank fifth in breakaway percentage, but he was also eighth in yards after contact per attempt and 14th in elusive rating (per PFF). My love for Jaylen Warren hasn't dissipated, but we have to listen to the Steelers with their move to acquire Johnson's services. Warren will likely operate in his usual role while Johnson does the heavy lifting for Arthur Smith's run-centric offense. Johnson is an RB2/3 who could be an RB1 down the stretch in 2025 if he can distance himself further from Warren better than Harris ever could.

After Warren's RB29 finish in 2023, I hoped he would take another small step into the RB2 ranks in 2024, but it wasn't meant to be. Warren dealt with a hamstring strain in the preseason and then a knee injury in Week 4. It was tough for him to regain his per-touch effectiveness until later in the season. Najee Harris also still stood in his way. Well, this offseason, the Steelers retained Warren's services, but he gained a more talented rusher than Harris in Kaleb Johnson to contend with now. Warren will likely operate in his usual capacity as Johnson moves into Harris's old role. In Weeks 8-18, Warren averaged 9.6 touches and 66.2 total yards while ranking 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt (among 52 qualifying backs, per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, Warren was the RB36 in fantasy points per game. He should be a strong RB3 again this season.

With the Steelers having little proven talent at wide receiver beyond new acquisition D.K. Metcalf, TE Pat Freiermuth could see a good number of targets in 2025. Freiermuth had 65 catches for 653 yards and seven touchdowns last year, finishing TE10 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is a former TE coach who likes to keep his tight ends prominently involved. The problem is that Smith like to use multiple tight ends, so Freiermuth might not have the TE targets to himself. Regard Freiermuth as a high-end to midrange TE2 with low-end TE1 upside.

Since the start of the 2022 season, Aaron Rodgers has finished as a top-12 QB in just six games - with only one top-6 finish. A-Rod has surpassed 300 passing yards just twice since Week 14 of the 2021 season. Now entering his age-41 season, Rodgers offers virtually no rushing value to buoy his fantasy floor. Last year with the Jets, Rodgers finished as the QB15 overall and QB18 in points per game (15.1), despite throwing for nearly 3,900 yards and 28 touchdowns. That offense also ranked top 5 in passing volume. It's unlikely Arthur Smith's run-heavy scheme in Pittsburgh comes close to replicating that opportunity. His days of routinely elevating the talent around him are likely over. At this point, Rodgers simply raises the floor of Pittsburgh's offense to keep their playmakers fantasy-relevant. But with a downgrade in weapons and offensive philosophy, Rodgers is merely a streaming option unless he posts an outlier-level touchdown rate. Given the alternatives, it's a win for the Steelers - but expectations should remain tempered for fantasy.