Fantasy Football Player Notes

I tried to tell people last year, but few wanted to listen. After an insane 2024 season, Saquon Barkley was poised to come back down to earth some in 2025. Well, it happened. Barkley finished with 317 touches and 1,413 total yards as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. Part of this could be traced to natural regression, but also, Barkley had a decent dip in efficiency. In 2024, Barkley had an insane 3.55 yards before contact per attempt, which easily led all running backs (minimum 100 carries, per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, that number fell to 2.11, which was 23rd among 49 qualifying backs, essentially a league-average number. From 2024 to 2025, Barkley's explosive run rate dropped from 7.2% (fourth-best) to 4.6% (20th), and his yards after contact per attempt dipped from 2.26 (35th) to 1.96 (39th). Barkley lived off explosive runs and easily getting into the second level of defenses in 2024, but he found more uphill sledding last year. His volume should finish in the neighborhood of 300 touches with double-digit touchdown upside. That should lock him into top-15 running back status with possible top 5-7 upside if the offensive line can stay healthy and the Eagles' passing attack can also bounce back. If the aerial attack can get right, this team and Barkley will have more scoring opportunities in 2026 (last year, 28th in red-zone scoring opportunities per game).

DeVonta Smith steps into the clear WR1 chair for the Philly passing attack. Over the last two years, in a VERY small sample, Smith has proven that he can handle it. In three games since 2024, without A.J. Brown on the field, Smith has commanded a 32.9% target share while producing 2.65 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Yes, I know the sample is tiny, but it is signal that Smith can command WR1-level volume and remain efficient while doing so. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Smith was also 27th in separation and 28th in route win rate. Last year, Smith also drew a 22.7% target share while producing 2.03 yards per route run (22nd) and 0.089 first downs per route run (32nd). I expect all of those marks to improve in 2026 with Smith leading the way for Philly. He's a WR1/2 with some upside and an extremely high floor.

Last year, the Eagles offense hit a rut, and Jalen Hurts finished with his worst season (QB8) in fantasy points per game since becoming the full-time starter in 2021. While Hurts was still heavily involved on the ground near the goal line (fourth in rushing touchdowns and second in red zone carries), he also finished with the second-fewest rushing yards per game (26.3) of his career. There are big-time questions about whether Hurts can bounce back this season after the struggles of last season, the loss of A.J. Brown, and the Eagles transitioning to another new offensive coordinator who could emphasize utilizing the middle of the field. Last year, among 45 qualifying passers, Hurts ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 18th in CPOE, 25th in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). I'll be surprised if his rushing numbers don't rebound. The Eagles still have plenty of receiving talent in-house with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and with their offseason additions of Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers, Dontayvion Wicks, and Hollywood Brown. I'm not shying away from buying the dip with Hurts despite the worries. Hurts has proven doubters wrong time and time again while improving as a player and passer along the way, going all the way back to college. Hurts still has top 3-5 upside in fantasy.

Makai Lemon enters the NFL with elite collegiate production and first-round draft capital after the Eagles aggressively traded up to secure the former USC standout. Lemon offers inside-outside versatility and was one of the most efficient perimeter receivers in college football despite being viewed by some as slot-only. The biggest obstacle to immediate fantasy relevance is target competition in Philadelphia, where DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert already command significant volume. Still, Lemon's talent and long-term upside make him an intriguing bench stash and rookie breakout candidate if the Eagles improve their passing attack under new OC Sean Mannion (McVay/Shanahan-type offense).

Dallas Goedert not only scored a career-high 11 touchdowns in 2025, but he more than doubled his previous single-season high. Goedert had never scored more than five touchdowns in any of his seven previous NFL seasons. Six of Goedert's TDs last year came on variations of shovel passes from the 5-yard line or closer, as the shovel pass to Goedert became a short-range alternative to the Eagles' "tush push" QB sneaks. Goedert also hit a career high with 60 receptions last season, although he averaged a career-low 9.9 yards per catch. The 31-year-old Goedert clearly has gas left in the tank. The question is whether the Eagles' new offensive coordinator, Sean Mannion, will feature Goedert near the goal line as much as departed Eagles OC Kevin Patullo did.

Tank Bigsby is one of the best handcuffs in the NFL, and he won't get mentioned at the top of the conversation many times. Last year, among 65 qualifying backs, he ranked fourth in explosive run rate, second in missed tackle rate, and first in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). In the one game that he played more than 40% of the snaps (Week 18), we got to see what his fantasy value could be if Saquon Barkley missed any time. He logged 17 touches with 106 total yards as the RB9 for the week in PPR scoring. If you're looking for handcuffs to stash, Bigsby is one of the best.

No team has a more difficult DST schedule than the Eagles in 2026. But they start the year off in a decent spot - at home versus the Commanders and on the road versus the Titans. The Eagles have finished as fantasy DST7 in back-to-back seasons with extremely strong personnel on that side of the ball. They have been in the top 6 in turnover margin since 2024, and saw an increase in pass rush productivity last season.

The Eagles took Eli Stowers in the second round of this year's NFL Draft, 54th overall. Stowers won the John Mackey Award last year as the best tight end in college football, finishing his senior year at Vanderbilt with 62 catches for 769 yards and four touchdowns. Stowers had a 27% target rate last year and averaged an impressive 2.55 yards per route run. And like fellow rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq, Stowers is an athletic marvel. Stowers ran a 4.51 at the combine, and the former Texas state high school high-jump champion had a vertical jump of 451/2 inches. The 6-4, 239-pound Stowers might not be heavy enough to play as an in-line tight end, which could potentially limit his snaps. It's hard to project big things for Stowers in his rookie year when his usage and role are uncertain, but his athleticism and college production suggest he's capable of big things sooner or later.