Fantasy Football Player Notes

Being high on A.J. Brown was a big hit for me in 2022, as the Eagles' WR1 finished as the WR4. I acknowledged his uber-talent from his days in Tennessee, combined with an offense that would be willing to throw more than his old team would unlock his fantasy football ceiling.

He did just that, finishing 8th in points per game (15.0) with a 29% target share. He posted the NFL's 6th-highest air yards share (39%) despite running fewer routes than his teammate DeVonta Smith. AJB tied a bow on his first year in Philadelphia second overall in yards per route run (2.89) behind only Tyreek Hill and 6th in yards after the catch per reception. The 26-year-old remains in his uber-prime and needs to be valued as such.

The Eagles utilized DeVonta Smith in a different role in 2022 than during his rookie season, and the results were beautiful. In 2021 Smith was ninth in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wide receivers as Philly rolled him out a field stretcher. While Smith was solid in this role, his upside as a zone-destroying intermediate-level threat was seized in 2022. Smith still finished 19th in deep targets among wideouts, but his aDOT dropped to 9.9 (65th) as he began to gobble up targets. Smith was 13th in targets (136), 14th in target share (27.0%), and 19th in target per route run rate (26.2%). He finished with 95 receptions (ninth-best), 1,196 receiving yards (eighth), and seven total touchdowns (14th) as the WR14 in fantasy. Smith was 18th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). With a consolidated target tree and an ascending quarterback talent in Philly, Smith is poised to be a solid WR2 again in 2023.

Hurts gave us a taste of his fantasy potential in 2021 and then cooked a seven-course meal in 2022, improving his passing numbers across the board, providing enormous rushing value and leading all quarterbacks with 25.6 fantasy points per game. Hurts was a highly efficient passer in his second full season as a starter, completing 66.5% of his throws at 8.0 yards per attempt, with a miniscule 1.3% INT rate. But it's the running game where Hurts really makes his bones. He ran for 13 touchdowns last year and has 23 TD runs over the last two seasons. Hurts has topped 750 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons, averaging 51.5 rushing yards per game over that span. He plays behind one of the best offensive lines in football and can throw to three terrific targets: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts belongs on the top QB tier along with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D'Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot, but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead.
Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis - fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt - but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing. Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. And Detroit's lack of willingness to get Swift involved was a sign of things to come as they would eventually trade him to the Philadelphia Eagles for a future Day 3 pick.

With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift will again be productive on a per-touch basis in his new offense. But be warned that his injury history and draft capital spent on Swift guarantees him nothing under a new coaching staff in Philadelphia. Fantasy managers should also be aware that Swift and fellow newcomer Rashaad Penny are both solid rushers, posting identical success rates last season.

Swift also won't be used as often in the passing game, after the Eagles finished dead last in RB target share last season (12.1%) and total RB targets.

Over the last two years, Dallas Goedert has averaged 56.7 yards per game and a wildly efficient 10.6 yards per target. He finished fifth in fantasy points per game in 2022, missing five late-season games with a shoulder injury. The athletic Goedert is a playmaking tight end who's averaged 13.8 yards per catch over the last two years. His target upside may be limited, however, since the Eagles were the fourth run-heaviest team in the league last season, and since Goedert has to share targets with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert hasn't scored more than five touchdowns in any of his five NFL seasons.

Rashaad Penny inked a one-year deal with the Eagles reportedly worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed and a max value of $2.1 million. It's not much but it puts him in the conversation to be the team's early-down lead back in full Miles Sanders fashion. In his five games played before his injury in 2022, Penny averaged over six yards per carry. He ranked second among all RBs in rushing percentage that resulted in 10-plus yards (17.5%).

His only game where he failed to surpass 54 yards on the ground was against the eventual number one run defensive unit: the San Francisco 49ers. The on-field production and talent have never been in question with Penny. It's just been the availability due to health that has been the big issue. Quarterback Jalen Hurts' presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny's TD potential to some extent but make no mistake that Penny's explosive game means he can score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays. Seven (50%) have been 30-plus plays from scrimmage.

Although it should be noted that the Eagles traded for D'Andre Swift and re-signed Boston Scott. Penny's deal is worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed - less than Scott's $2 million with $1.08 guaranteed. Swift is the superior pass-catcher, but an argument can be made that Penny is as good is not better as a pure rusher.

Kenneth Gainwell was seldom used throughout the 2022 season as his passing-catching skill was not needed with the Philadelphia Eagles dominating their opponents en route to a Super Bowl 57 cameo. But his usage down the stretch should be noted as his role increased drastically. He out-targeted Miles Sanders 18-5 from Week 15 onward. And in Sanders' last five games, the early-down starter played fewer than 40% of the snaps after never playing fewer than 50% of the snaps from Weeks 1-16. Gainwell and Sanders split touches nearly 50/50 in the team's last four games, with Kenny G seeing the preferred usage on third/passing downs. With Sanders not returning to the team, Gainwell would be a favorite to see an expanded role on the ground in addition to his confirmed receiving role on offense. It's a major "if" newcomers Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift can actually stay healthy for a full season. And "if" they cannot (a very probable outcome) Gainwell will benefit as will Boston Scott. Gainwell is dirt cheap as the RB56 in best ball drafts.