Fantasy Football Player Notes

It has been a rollercoaster with Hopkins this year. Don't believe me? Here are his PPR points by week: 29, 20, 23, 11, 25, 9, 24, 6, 25, 10. Since Week 3, we've had a lot of ups and downs, and I don't know if we should expect that to end with Murray's shoulder injury. Hopkins has still seen at least seven targets in 9-of-10 games, so it's not like you're too worried, but more from a DFS cash game perspective. The Patriots matchup isn't one to worry about, though Hopkins is surely going to get the Stephon Gilmore treatment. He hasn't been the defensive player of the year that he was last year, allowing 15-of-24 passing for 209 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. That amounts to a 100.9 QB Rating, which is easily the worst mark of his career (previous high was a 91.2 QB Rating). Hopkins has played against the Patriots six times in his career, and though he's never totaled more than 78 yards or scored against them, this isn't the same team on the other side of the ball. As a whole, the Patriots have allowed a massive 2.12 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks second to only the Cowboys. You're starting him as a WR1 this week, and the matchup has not been something to worry about. He's not someone I'd be playing in cash games, though.

It seems we've come back down to earth with Kirk, as he's finished with just eight catches for 77 yards in the last two weeks combined. There was a three-game stretch in there that made it mighty difficult to bench him, but he's no longer someone you must start, especially when you consider Murray's shoulder injury that could negatively impact his passing. The matchup against the Patriots is not a bad one, as evidenced by the league-leading 9.65 yards per target to wide receivers they've allowed. Kirk also leads the Cardinals starting wide receivers in average depth of target, so it helps to know the Patriots have allowed 14.52 yards per reception, which is second to only the Falcons. While Hopkins is sure to see Stephon Gilmore, that leaves Kirk with Jason McCourty. Of the 88 cornerbacks who've played at least 175 snaps in coverage, McCourty has allowed the second-most PPR points per target (2.48) in his coverage. The risk with Kirk comes back to Kyler Murray and his shoulder injury, as he needs to be able to get the ball downfield. Despite the Patriots being as bad as they are from an efficiency standpoint, they've allowed just 16 wide receivers to finish as top-48 options (12 of whom were top-36). That's not great when we view Hopkins as the No. 1 receiver for them. Kirk is in the WR4 conversation in a plus-matchup but there is concern, meaning he's not a must-start.

It was practically a 50/50 timeshare between these two last week, as Edmonds played 36 snaps to Drake's 33 snaps. Drake did touch the ball 15 times to Edmonds' six touches, including the goal-line carries, which are clearly worth a lot, especially with Kyler Murray dinged up. Drake also saw a season-high five targets against the Seahawks, which would be massive for his value moving forward. It's not like the Seahawks were a matchup to exploit through the air, but part of me wonders if it was due to Murray's shoulder issue. Time will tell, but Drake clearly has a valuable role. The Patriots opponents have run the ball a league-high 48.8 percent of the time, which has led to 22.4 carries per game against them by running backs. "Wait, why isn't it more than that for a team who faces such a high percentage of run plays?" It's due to the fact that teams have averaged just 57.6 plays per game against them. Removing the one game where Drake didn't play, the split in carries has been Drake 146 - Edmonds 39. We should be expecting 16-plus carries out of Drake this week. Efficiency hasn't been that much of an issue against the Patriots who've allowed 4.42 yards per carry and 6.47 yards per target to running backs; both of which are above the league average. Every running back who's received at least 14 carries against the Patriots (five running backs have) has finished with at least 83 total yards. Drake should be worth considering as a low-end RB2 for this week. Edmonds has averaged just 8.0 touches per game when Drake is active, which is hard to trust as anything more than an RB4.

It was practically a 50/50 timeshare between these two last week, as Edmonds played 36 snaps to Drake's 33 snaps. Drake did touch the ball 15 times to Edmonds' six touches, including the goal-line carries, which are clearly worth a lot, especially with Kyler Murray dinged up. Drake also saw a season-high five targets against the Seahawks, which would be massive for his value moving forward. It's not like the Seahawks were a matchup to exploit through the air, but part of me wonders if it was due to Murray's shoulder issue. Time will tell, but Drake clearly has a valuable role. The Patriots opponents have run the ball a league-high 48.8 percent of the time, which has led to 22.4 carries per game against them by running backs. "Wait, why isn't it more than that for a team who faces such a high percentage of run plays?" It's due to the fact that teams have averaged just 57.6 plays per game against them. Removing the one game where Drake didn't play, the split in carries has been Drake 146 - Edmonds 39. We should be expecting 16-plus carries out of Drake this week. Efficiency hasn't been that much of an issue against the Patriots who've allowed 4.42 yards per carry and 6.47 yards per target to running backs; both of which are above the league average. Every running back who's received at least 14 carries against the Patriots (five running backs have) has finished with at least 83 total yards. Drake should be worth considering as a low-end RB2 for this week. Edmonds has averaged just 8.0 touches per game when Drake is active, which is hard to trust as anything more than an RB4.

He's now finished with at least 54 yards in three of the last four games, and actually led the team with 10 targets in Week 11. Why do you think that was? It appeared that Murray wasn't quite comfortable throwing the ball down the field with his injury, so it made sense that Fitzgerald would receive more targets with his short 5.5-yard average depth of target, which ranks third-lowest among wide receivers. The Patriots have allowed the second-most fantasy points per target to wide receivers, which is the second-most in the league. The touchdown every 12.1 targets certainly helps. Jonathan Jones is the one the Patriots have covering the slot, and he's allowed 32-of-48 passing for 353 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. You're not playing Fitzgerald for a ceiling, that's for sure, but if you're looking for four-plus catches and 40-plus yards, he should be in that range.