Fantasy Football Player Notes

Tetairoa McMillan is the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 23.5% target share, 63.5 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 28.2% first-read share. He leads the team with 14 red zone targets and 16 deep targets. This week, he faces a Saints' secondary that, since Week 6, has had the third-highest single high rate (60.3%). Against single high, McMillan has seen his target share rise to 26.4% with 2.19 yards per route run and a 32.3% first-read share. McMillan has a tough matchup that he'll have to overcome while also dealing with Bryce Young's yo-yo style of quarterback play. Since Week 10, the Saints have held perimeter wide receivers to the eight-fewest PPR points per target and the lowest passer rating when targeted.

Despite his incredible efficiency and his standout performances this season, Dowdle took a back seat to Chuba Hubbard last week with a 43.5% snap rate, a 20.8% route share, and a 10% target share. Dowdle has outplayed Hubbard handily on a per-touch basis. Among 57 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 13th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackle rate, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Last week, Dowdle finished with 20 touches and 79 total yards, seeing a touch or a target on 20 of his 27 snaps played. That type of usage on a per-snap basis is difficult to maintain. You're threading a fine needle, so if Dowdle's snap count doesn't flip back in the other direction, he could become volatile, while on the surface it looked like he got an RB2-level workload in his last game. Dowdle is a strong flex and could be an RB2 this week (RB36 in Week 13). Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 58.6% zone).

In Carolina's last game, Chuba Hubbard reclaimed the lead back role with a 58.1% snap rate, a 54.2% route share, and a 10% target share. Hubbard finished with 19 touches and 124 total yards as the RB5 for the week. Hubbard's lack of efficiency has been startling, especially with Carolina's insistence on reinstalling him as the lead back. Among 57 qualifying backs, he has zero explosive runs and ranks 54th in missed tackle rate and 55th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard could still have a nice day against a burnable Saints' run defense. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 58.6% zone).

Jalen Coker is on the deep league flex radar again this week. Since Week 6, the Saints' secondary has had the third-highest single high rate (60.3%). Since Week 10, against single high, Coker has had an 18.2% target share with 2.52 yards per route run and a 28.2% first-read share. Those are strong numbers, no matter how you slice it. The worries for Coker are Bryce Young's uneven play and the improvement in the Saints' pass defense. Since Week 10, the Saints have held slot receivers to the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-lowest passer rating when targeted.