Fantasy Football Player Notes

Sure, John Brown has been producing when he's on the field, but it's clear as day who the No. 1 go-to receiver is for Josh Allen. He's now totaled at least 86 yards in 4-of-5 games, including three of them with 100-plus yards. His 26.3 percent target share is more than you could've ever asked for. The matchup with the Chiefs is not a good one, despite contrary belief. The 48 receptions they've allowed ranks as the second-fewest in the NFL, while the 695 yards ranks as the sixth-fewest. Looking at fantasy points the Chiefs have allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the wide receiver position has accounted for just 42.6 percent of the production, which ranks as the fifth-lowest percentage in the league. This is nothing new, as the Chiefs allowed the fewest yards in the league to receivers last year. It's unlikely we see multiple receivers produce, which is why it's so important that we know Diggs is the clear alpha. There have been just three receivers who've posted 100-plus yards against them in their last 21 games, though it is important to mention that two of them have been this year. Diggs should be started as a WR2 with his target share and importance in the offense, but it's not a smash spot.

We have no clue what to do with Moss at this point, as he's not touched the ball since Week 2 and was inactive on Tuesday night where T.J. Yeldon ate into his potential workload. Singletary didn't look good against the Titans, so it's hard to say how this backfield will look moving forward, though I suspect Singletary will remain the most valuable. It's an important question considering the matchup they have in front of them, as the Chiefs have continually been one of the worst teams in the league against the run. After allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs last year, they rank as the 10th-worst in the league this year, and that's despite allowing just three touchdowns to them. Based on yardage, they've allowed 913 of them, which is 44 more yards than any other team in the NFL. Dating back to last year, in the same scheme, with very similar personnel, the Chiefs have allowed 23 running backs to hit double-digit PPR points against them. Keep in mind that's a span of 21 games, so more than one per game. 15 of those running backs broke the 15-point barrier. The total weighted opportunity against the Chiefs for running backs is the second-highest mark in the league behind only the Panthers, so we want some action on Bills running backs. For now, Singletary should be considered as a low-end RB2 with more upside than most in that territory, though he would get a bump in the rankings is Moss is inactive again. If Moss plays, he's nothing more than a risky RB4 who's been out of the lineup for three weeks.

I warned fantasy managers last week that I didn't think Brown was going to play after tweaking his calf injury. There's no guarantee he plays this week either, as soft tissue injuries can linger. I'll pay attention to injury reports as we get closer and update you at the bottom of these notes. The matchup this week might make the decision to start or sit him easier, as the Chiefs have been among the best in the league at slowing down receivers. They dealt with some injuries/suspensions earlier in the year, but they've still allowed just the eighth-fewest points to the position. There have been four receivers who've topped 67 yards against them this year, but three of those receivers saw double-digit targets. Brown has seen just 13 targets over his last three games and would be coming off that soft tissue injury, creating additional concern. The lone positive is that the Bills have allowed 14.48 yards per reception to receivers, and Brown does have the deepest average depth of target on the team. If he plays, he'll be a risky WR4.

The targets have been pretty static throughout the Bills offense, and Beasley has now seen six or seven targets in 4-of-5 games this year. This is typically the time of year Beasley shines, as fantasy managers look for bye week replacements. He's posted at least 9.0 PPR points in 17-of-20 games since the start of last season. Should we consider him a safe replacement this week? Ehhh. The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest receptions to the wide receiver position, and any slot option not named Keenan Allen has struggled to produce, including Julian Edelman and Hunter Renfrow over the last two weeks, as they combined for just four catches and 77 yards. Even going back to last year, no slot-heavy receiver reached 50 yards without seeing double-digit targets, something we don't get out of Beasley. It's probably a week where you can find better options, as he's just a low-upside WR5 option.