Skip to main content

Fantasy Football Player Notes

Week 13 PPR Rankings
Michael Thomas Note
Michael Thomas photo 26. Michael Thomas WR - (at ATL)
The good news is that Thomas has seen 18 of Hill's 39 pass attempts over the last two games, which amounts to a massive 46.2 percent target share. The bad news is that he's finished with just 13 receptions for 154 yards and no touchdowns with that incredible target share. If the Saints are going to throw the ball just 20 times per game, that's going to be an issue for any pass catcher. The last time they played the Falcons, we watched Thomas rack up nine catches for 104 yards on 12 targets, and he even left some on the table with a rare drop that would've been a 20-plus yard reception. Oddly enough, his 8.67 yards per target in that game was lower than the Falcons have allowed to wide receivers this year. That's right, they've allowed a massive 9.46 yards per target to wide receivers on the season, which is the most in the NFL. They simply don't have the talent to hang with a receiver like Thomas. There have been 14 wide receivers who've finished as top-24 options against the Falcons this season, including eight wide receivers who've topped 100 yards, and that's not even including the three games where a receiver totaled 95, 93, and 92 yards. Thomas should come with a top-24 floor, but if he gets into the end zone, he should be a WR1 this week. Let's split the difference and call him a high-end WR2.
1 day ago
Alvin Kamara Note
Alvin Kamara photo 28. Alvin Kamara RB - (at ATL)
We're officially panicked with Kamara now that we've seen just three targets over the last two games with Hill under center. Some are wondering if Murray is worth more with Hill under center considering his production in last week's game, though I'm not there just yet. That game was a blowout and keeping Kamara fresh makes a lot of sense. Still, Kamara's value has taken quite the hit, as his weighted opportunity is comparable to guys like Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt. The Falcons allow a lot of fantasy production, right? Unfortunately, running backs haven't accounted for too much of it. They've allowed a league-low 25.0 percent of skill-player production go to running backs, while no other team in the league is below 26.6 percent. Teams have realized it's more profitable to throw the ball against the Falcons, and that's why you've seen them face a league-low 17.8 carries per game. That's turned into just 70.0 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs. For those doing the math at home, that's just 8.55 fantasy points per game on the ground, which is the lowest mark in the league. There have been six running backs who've totaled at least 33 yards through the air against them, so that's where you'd like to see production. How good have the Falcons been against running backs as a whole? Well, they've allowed just six of them to hit 11.5 PPR points this year, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league. That number is significant because it's the average number of points running backs needed to finish as a top-24 running back in 2019. Because of his decrease workload in the passing game, Kamara is more of a high-end RB2 at this point in time who's in a tough spot here. Don't forget he totaled just 45 yards on 13 carries against them just two weeks ago, though a touchdown salvaged his fantasy day. As for Murray, this matchup is brutal for his skill set, but he has fantasy value if he keeps getting the 12-plus carries he's gotten in the two games with Hill. Murray should be considered a mid-tier RB3 that you don't have to play in this game.
1 day ago
Latavius Murray Note
Latavius Murray photo 76. Latavius Murray RB - (at ATL)
We're officially panicked with Kamara now that we've seen just three targets over the last two games with Hill under center. Some are wondering if Murray is worth more with Hill under center considering his production in last week's game, though I'm not there just yet. That game was a blowout and keeping Kamara fresh makes a lot of sense. Still, Kamara's value has taken quite the hit, as his weighted opportunity is comparable to guys like Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt. The Falcons allow a lot of fantasy production, right? Unfortunately, running backs haven't accounted for too much of it. They've allowed a league-low 25.0 percent of skill-player production go to running backs, while no other team in the league is below 26.6 percent. Teams have realized it's more profitable to throw the ball against the Falcons, and that's why you've seen them face a league-low 17.8 carries per game. That's turned into just 70.0 rushing yards and 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs. For those doing the math at home, that's just 8.55 fantasy points per game on the ground, which is the lowest mark in the league. There have been six running backs who've totaled at least 33 yards through the air against them, so that's where you'd like to see production. How good have the Falcons been against running backs as a whole? Well, they've allowed just six of them to hit 11.5 PPR points this year, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league. That number is significant because it's the average number of points running backs needed to finish as a top-24 running back in 2019. Because of his decrease workload in the passing game, Kamara is more of a high-end RB2 at this point in time who's in a tough spot here. Don't forget he totaled just 45 yards on 13 carries against them just two weeks ago, though a touchdown salvaged his fantasy day. As for Murray, this matchup is brutal for his skill set, but he has fantasy value if he keeps getting the 12-plus carries he's gotten in the two games with Hill. Murray should be considered a mid-tier RB3 that you don't have to play in this game.
1 day ago
Emmanuel Sanders Note
Emmanuel Sanders photo 117. Emmanuel Sanders WR - (at ATL)
After a one-target game, you probably aren't considering Sanders an option, but knowing the Falcons stop the run well as well as they do, you might want to. The last time they played against the Falcons, he finished with four catches for 66 yards on just five targets, and it could've been much more than that had his 57-yard touchdown not gotten called back due to a penalty. The Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and have allowed 21 wide receivers finish as top-40 options against them. Sanders can be in the WR4/5 conversation despite his lack of targets in Week 12, but understand he comes with a lower floor than most in that range.
1 day ago
Jared Cook Note
Jared Cook photo 162. Jared Cook TE - (at ATL)
We can put Cook in the "do not start" category moving forward, and to be fair, he's been there the last few weeks. He hasn't seen more than three targets or topped 30 yards since way back in Week 8, which is no coincidence since he hasn't played more than 26 snaps since that game. It stinks because tight ends have averaged 4.8 more half-PPR points per game against the Falcons than they do in non-Falcons games, which is the largest difference in the league. Despite the blunder by the Raiders last week, the Falcons have still allowed more fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. But again, Cook isn't playing enough to consider as anything more than a hail-mary tournament play.
1 day ago
Tre'Quan Smith Note
Tre'Quan Smith photo 193. Tre'Quan Smith WR - (at ATL)
Dwayne Washington Note
Dwayne Washington photo 240. Dwayne Washington RB - (at ATL)
Adam Trautman Note
Adam Trautman photo 270. Adam Trautman TE - (at ATL)
Deonte Harris Note
Deonte Harris photo 296. Deonte Harris WR - (at ATL)
Marquez Callaway Note
Marquez Callaway photo 307. Marquez Callaway WR - (at ATL)
Josh Hill Note
Josh Hill photo 316. Josh Hill TE - (at ATL)
Austin Carr Note
Austin Carr photo 345. Austin Carr WR - (at ATL)
Ty Montgomery Note
Ty Montgomery photo 352. Ty Montgomery RB - (at ATL)
Michael Burton Note
Michael Burton photo 359. Michael Burton RB - (at ATL)