Fantasy Football Player Notes

In the Patriots' last game, we saw TreVeyon Henderson take a step back with Rhamondre Stevenson reclaiming his lead back role for the team. Henderson finished with 14 touches, 86 total yards, a 47.6% snap rate, a 41.7% route share, and a 12.9% target share. Henderson split the red zone work with Stevenson evenly as both backs had two red zone rushing attempts. It's a coin flip for volume between the two this week which adds a layer of volatility when projecting Hendrson's Week 15 outlook. I've been encouraged by Henderson's efficiency marks since Week 9, though. Since Week 9, among 51 qualifying backs, Henderson has been 14th in explosive run rate and 24th in missed tackle rate. Those are huge leaps from where he began the season. Henderson should find running room this week against what's still a weak Bills run defense. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt.

Since Week 12, Stefon Diggs has seen his usage dip again with a 53.3% route share, a 10.6% target share, and a 12.8% first-read share. Diggs may continue to see this limited usage coming out of the bye, but I expect his usage to increase in a massive game against his former employer. Overall, Diggs has a 64.4% route share, a 20.1% target share, 54.2 receiving yards per game, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 22% first-read share. Diggs is second on the team with 11 red zone targets and eight deep targets. This week, he faces a Bills' secondary that has the third-highest two-high rate (57.2%). Against two high, Diggs has had a 22.8% target share, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 26.9% first-read share. The biggest worry for Diggs this week is that he could get shadowed by Christian Benford. This season, Benford has followed DK Metcalf, Nico Collins, Tetairoa McMillan, Ja'Marr Chase, Drake London, Chris Olave, and Tyreek Hill on 61.3-72.7% of their routes. Only Olave and Hill scored touchdowns in his primary coverage, but none of those receivers surpassed 43 receiving yards with Benford in coverage. Diggs has a wide range of outcomes in Week 15.

Hunter Henry is the TE12 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weekly outings. Henry has a 17% target share with 46.9 receiving yards per game, 1.76 yards per route run, and a 19.3% first-read share. Henry leads the team with 16 red zone targets while also seeing six deep targets. This isn't a week to plug Henry into the starting lineup. The Bills have been an elite team at covering tight ends for the last few seasons, and this one isn't any different. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Kayshon Boutte has been a weekly flex option with a high ceiling, with five top 24 weekly finishes this season. That has been because of his downfield role and touchdown scoring prowess. Boutte has ten deep targets and six touchdowns despite only seeing two red zone targets this season. Boutte is in play again this week as a volatile but high upside flex play. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest deep completion rate and the eighth-most deep passing yards per game.

In New England's last game, Stevenson reclaimed his lead-back role with a 60.3% snap rate, 15 touches, and 80 total yards. He split the red zone work with TreVeyon Henderson, with each player receiving two red zone rushing attempts. In Week 13, Stevenson also led the team with a 58.3% route share while kicking in a 9.7% target share. Among 57 qualifying backs this season, Stevenson ranks seventh in missed tackle rate and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. We'll see how the backfield shakes out this week, but Stevenson should remain an integral part of the offensive game plan as a strong flex play. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most yards after contact per attempt.