Fantasy Football Player Notes

Stevenson's 2023 season was a terrible disappointment, but there's hope that his 2024 campaign will be a wonderful bounce-back story. Last year, after Week 8, we saw glimpses of the Stevenson we thought we were drafting from the outset. In Weeks 9-13 (Stevenson missed the remainder of the season due to a high ankle sprain), among 48 qualifying backs, he ranked 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. In his three full games in that span, he averaged 20.7 touches and 112.7 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy. The Patriots should look to lean on him in this opening game. Cincy's run defense was atrocious last year, allowing the seventh-highest rushing yards per game and the fifth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackles allowed per attempt. Mondre SZN begins in Week 1.

Douglas is the only Patriots' wide receiver I feel good about possibly plugging into a lineup in Week 1. We still don't know the rotation of the receivers on the outside, but Douglas should have no concerns as the team's starting slot. Last year, in the eight games Douglas played at least 50% of the snaps, he commanded a team-leading 20.8% target share and 24.4% first read share. He was a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in five of those eight games. Last year Cincy had the sixth-highest single-high rate (59.8%). In that eight-game sample, against single-high, Douglas managed a 22.5% target share with 1.98 YPRR and a 23.2% first-read share. Encouraging numbers, no doubt. The good vibes continue when we look at the matchup for Douglas. Last year, the Bengals gave up the third-highest receiving touchdowns and the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Douglas will run about 67% of his routes against Mike Hilton (72.7% catch rate and 78.5 passer rating).

Henry is banged up, but he may play in Week 1. He dealt with ankle and knee issues last year as well. Henry had ten games last year where he was able to play at least 70% of the snaps. In that sample, he finished as a TE1 in 50% of his games while drawing a 15.2% target share with 1.35 yards per route run and 35.7 receiving yards per game. He averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game. The interesting takeaway in that sample was that among 41 qualifying tight ends, he ranked seventh in first downs per route run and that fantasy points per game mark would have made him TE8 in fantasy if he had kept up the pace all year. Henry has a wonderful matchup for Week 1 if you're in need of a streamer in deep leagues. Last year, the Bengals allowed the most receptions, the third-most receiving yards, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Polk is currently listed as a backup on various depth charts, so it's tough to consider starting him in Week 1. We have no clue what his route and snap shares will look like. New England looks to be pushing the crusty veterans on their depth chart to the front of the line and making the rookies earn it. It's not an approach I would take, but hey, what do I know? I would sit Polk in all formats for Week 1. Last year, Cincy allowed the eighth-fewest receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in PPR points per target.

Gibson is a stash/handcuff. It's too dicey to plug him into a starting lineup in Week 1 until we see how New England divides up the workload. I will say, though, that Gibson was impressive on a per-touch basis last season, ranking first in missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. While consensus is down on the Patriots' offense this year, Gibson is a strong end-of-the-bench bet.