Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jordan Mason posted a career-high 160 total yards in last week's victory against the New England Patriots. He scored for the third time in four games and finished the week as a top-five fantasy running back. Mason will carry similar upside in Week 5 against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards and fourth-most total touchdowns to the running back position. Continue to treat Jordan Mason as a rock-solid RB1 in all formats.

If this isn't the Aiyuk breakout game, then it'll be another Samuel smash outing. Samuel is the WR17 in fantasy points per game, rocking along with a 25% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Samuel is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. He's seen his usual rushing usage with four attempts per game and a rushing score. Arizona has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.5% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Samuel has led the way this year with a 31.4% target share, a 36.6% air-yard share, 2.95 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. The biggest question of this game is, "Does San Francisco lean on their year's Cover 3 and Cover 4 beater or last year's?" It is a coin flip. My gut tells me it is Aiyuk, as this is a wonderful opportunity to get him going, but it could easily be Samuel. Arizona's outside corners have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target this season. Samuel will run about 52% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (61.5% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating).

Aiyuk has disappointed so far this season as the WR67 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn a 19.7% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, and a 21.8% first-read share while producing 1.34 YPRR. I'm not worried about Aiyuk at all, though. His per-route metrics are still amazing, and better days are ahead. Among 111 wide receivers, he ranks fifth in separation and first in route win rate. Arizona has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.5% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Aiyuk has only a 17.4% target share, a 17.1% air-yard share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. That first-read rate is second on the team, behind only Deebo Samuel. Working in Aiyuk's favor is the fact that Arizona's outside corners have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target this season. Last year, Aiyuk was the team's go-to receiver against Cover 3 and Cover 4, with a team-leading 24.4% target share, 3.31 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Aiyuk will run about 84% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (61.5% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating). The big Aiyuk game could happen in Week 5.

George Kittle is the lone tight end who has finished inside the top 10 in each game he has played this season. But therein lies the rub. Kittle has already missed one game this season and now enters Week 5 questionable with a rib injury. He missed practice on Wednesday as a result of the injury. With San Francisco hosting a game in the late window on Sunday afternoon, fantasy managers may have to seek out a backup plan in case Kittle misses this game. The Arizona Cardinals have been better than expected at limiting tight end production. However, if George Kittle can suit up, he should be started in all leagues.