Fantasy Football Player Notes

D'Andre Swift has had a resurgent season as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 13, he has averaged 17.3 touches and 96.5 total yards while splitting the red zone role with Kyle Monangai (each back has ten red zone rushing attempts). Among 48 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 13th in explosive run rate and 19th in missed tackle rate. Swift is a strong RB2 with RB1 upside. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest rushing success rate, and the highest missed tackle rate.

In the last two weeks, DJ Moore has had back-to-back WR1 finishes in weekly scoring as the WR7 and WR8 for those weeks. Since Week 14, without Rome Odunze, Moore has had a 15.5% target share with 54 receiving yards per game, 1.78 yards per route run, and a 21.7% first-read share. In his last three games, Moore has had two red zone targets, five deep targets, and three scores. Moore should have another nice game this week. Since Week 12, San Francisco has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Last week, Colston Loveland had a 78.4% route share, which was nice to see, but I don't think that it continues with Luther Burden back. Last week, with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden both out, the team utilized Loveland and Cole Kmet with route shares north of 75.7%. I think that was due to the team being thin in receiving options. With Luther Burden back this week, I expect Olamide Zaccheaus to return to his slot role, while Burden will rotate from the perimeter to the slot, and Loveland and Kmet will be back in the 60% route share range. Since Week 10, Loveland has been the TE16 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly scoring outings. Since Week 10, Loveland has had a 14% target share with 42 receiving yards per game, 1.92 yards per route run, and a 16.5% first-read share. Since Week 10, he has had five red zone targets and one deep target. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Loveland is a borderline TE1 this week.

Kyle Monangai has been a wonderful find for the Bears this season. The barbed wire tackle-breaking behemoth has averaged 15 touches and 78.3 total yards since Week 13. Since Week 13, Monangai has split the red zone rushing work with D'Andre Swift, with each back seeing ten red zone carries. Overall, among 48 qualifying backs, Monangai ranks 28th in explosive run rates and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He should have nice flex, worthy work with RB2 upside. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest rushing success rate, and the highest missed tackle rate.

Luther Burden will be back this week. In his two games played without Rome Odunze since Week 14, Burden has finished as the WR23 and WR25 in weekly scoring with a 20.6% target share, 75.5 receiving yards per game, 3.68 yards per route run, and a 29.4% first-read share. In those two games, Burden has had one red zone target and zero deep targets. Burden has a tough matchup, but he could overcome it this week if he continues to produce like that. Flexing Burden this week is a bet on talent, which is a sound bet to make for Week 17. Since Week 12, the 49ers have allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.