Fantasy Football Player Notes

Despite Matt Ryan throwing for just 185 yards last week, Ridley was able to get his, finishing with 6/50/1 on nine targets. Ridley has played nine full games this year and has finished with 14-plus PPR points in eight of them, giving him a top-24 seemingly every week, while we've also seen him post 17-plus PPR points in six of them, highlighting WR1 appeal. The matchup against the Saints is far from great, as they have two top-tier cornerbacks on the perimeter in Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins. Ridley was able to wiggle his way to five catches for 90 yards against them in Week 11, though it's worth noting that Lattimore was out for that game. There have been nine wide receivers who've finished as top-24 options against them, but if Julio Jones returns to the lineup, that would make things a bit trickier. Jenkins is the cornerback Ridley will see the most of and he's been pretty dang good this year, allowing just 27-of-50 passing for 342 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. Ridley should be considered a high-end WR2 if Jones returns but would creep into the WR1 conversation if Jones has to miss another game.

The Falcons are reportedly "hopeful" to get Jones back this week, but there's one thing you need to pay attention to, and that's his practice schedule. If he practices, even limited, he should be good to go. If he doesn't, don't count on him taking the field Sunday. The Saints are not the best matchup to be returning to, as they've been one of the best defenses in the league over the last month. Jones saw two targets on his 22 snaps that he was able to play in Week 11, which led to two receptions for 39 yards, though it's worth noting the Saints were also without Marshon Lattimore for that game. He's the cornerback Jones would see most of in coverage. After a rough start to the season, Lattimore has gotten back on track over his last five games, allowing just 15-of-27 passing for 157 yards, though two of those receptions have gone for touchdowns. Teams seemingly understand the talent in the Saints cornerback unit, as receivers have averaged just 17.9 targets per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. If Jones can suit up, you're playing him as a WR1, albeit a low-end one in this tough matchup.

With Julio most likely out for this game, Hurst does receive a bit of a boost from a target share perspective. He has a tough matchup in front of him, but he should do enough to return low-end TE1 value.

Raheem Morris said they're "hopeful" to get Gurley back this week, though that's hardly a guarantee. With him out of the lineup Hill and Smith shared the touches, though it was Smith who was more efficient, finishing with 75 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches compared to Hill's 55 total yards on 13 touches. We could sit here and talk about what this timeshare is without Gurley, but it won't make much of a difference in Week 13, as you really don't want to play either of them against the Saints, who've allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. The competition they've played isn't in question either, as running backs have averaged 6.9 fewer half-PPR points against the Saints than they do in non-Saints games. That's easily the biggest gap in the league. Of the production the Saints have allowed to skill-position players (63.0 PPR points per game), just 26.6 percent of it goes to running backs, which is the second-lowest percentage in football. There are just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 10.0 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs. We know that touchdowns are important to production in this backfield by now, right? Well, the Saints have allowed just five total touchdowns to running backs this year, or one every 53.8 touches. Both of those are the best numbers in the league. They've allowed just 27 percent of carries inside the five-yard line be converted into touchdowns, which is the third-lowest percentage in the league, so even if Gurley plays, his touchdown-dependent stat lines are problematic. That should be enough for you to worry, but what about when I tell you they've allowed a league-low 1,049 total yards to running backs this year (95.4 per game)? When you factor in weighted opportunity, the Saints have allowed 8.6 percent fewer points per opportunity than any other team in the league. The average RB1 performance in 2019 was 17.2 PPR points. The Saints are the only team in the league who've yet to allow a running back hit that mark. Even if Gurley suits up, he's just a boring RB3 who will bust if he doesn't score. If he doesn't play, Smith would be the preferred option, as he at least gets passing-down usage, but he'd be just a low-end RB3/high-end RB4.

Raheem Morris said they're "hopeful" to get Gurley back this week, though that's hardly a guarantee. With him out of the lineup Hill and Smith shared the touches, though it was Smith who was more efficient, finishing with 75 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches compared to Hill's 55 total yards on 13 touches. We could sit here and talk about what this timeshare is without Gurley, but it won't make much of a difference in Week 13, as you really don't want to play either of them against the Saints, who've allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. The competition they've played isn't in question either, as running backs have averaged 6.9 fewer half-PPR points against the Saints than they do in non-Saints games. That's easily the biggest gap in the league. Of the production the Saints have allowed to skill-position players (63.0 PPR points per game), just 26.6 percent of it goes to running backs, which is the second-lowest percentage in football. There are just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 10.0 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs. We know that touchdowns are important to production in this backfield by now, right? Well, the Saints have allowed just five total touchdowns to running backs this year, or one every 53.8 touches. Both of those are the best numbers in the league. They've allowed just 27 percent of carries inside the five-yard line be converted into touchdowns, which is the third-lowest percentage in the league, so even if Gurley plays, his touchdown-dependent stat lines are problematic. That should be enough for you to worry, but what about when I tell you they've allowed a league-low 1,049 total yards to running backs this year (95.4 per game)? When you factor in weighted opportunity, the Saints have allowed 8.6 percent fewer points per opportunity than any other team in the league. The average RB1 performance in 2019 was 17.2 PPR points. The Saints are the only team in the league who've yet to allow a running back hit that mark. Even if Gurley suits up, he's just a boring RB3 who will bust if he doesn't score. If he doesn't play, Smith would be the preferred option, as he at least gets passing-down usage, but he'd be just a low-end RB3/high-end RB4.

Raheem Morris said they're "hopeful" to get Gurley back this week, though that's hardly a guarantee. With him out of the lineup Hill and Smith shared the touches, though it was Smith who was more efficient, finishing with 75 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches compared to Hill's 55 total yards on 13 touches. We could sit here and talk about what this timeshare is without Gurley, but it won't make much of a difference in Week 13, as you really don't want to play either of them against the Saints, who've allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. The competition they've played isn't in question either, as running backs have averaged 6.9 fewer half-PPR points against the Saints than they do in non-Saints games. That's easily the biggest gap in the league. Of the production the Saints have allowed to skill-position players (63.0 PPR points per game), just 26.6 percent of it goes to running backs, which is the second-lowest percentage in football. There are just three teams in the NFL who've allowed fewer than 10.0 fantasy points per game on the ground to running backs. The Falcons, Saints, and Bucs. We know that touchdowns are important to production in this backfield by now, right? Well, the Saints have allowed just five total touchdowns to running backs this year, or one every 53.8 touches. Both of those are the best numbers in the league. They've allowed just 27 percent of carries inside the five-yard line be converted into touchdowns, which is the third-lowest percentage in the league, so even if Gurley plays, his touchdown-dependent stat lines are problematic. That should be enough for you to worry, but what about when I tell you they've allowed a league-low 1,049 total yards to running backs this year (95.4 per game)? When you factor in weighted opportunity, the Saints have allowed 8.6 percent fewer points per opportunity than any other team in the league. The average RB1 performance in 2019 was 17.2 PPR points. The Saints are the only team in the league who've yet to allow a running back hit that mark. Even if Gurley suits up, he's just a boring RB3 who will bust if he doesn't score.