Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jayden Reed went for 97 scrimmage yards last week, which was his worst game alongside starting quarterback Jordan Love. That connection looks to continue their strong start to the year in a Week 6 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass and plays zone coverage at an above-average rate. Both of those indicators suggest Reed should be in for another big game on Sunday. He may not get the volume of a player like Malik Nabers, but Jayden Reed has all the makings of a WR1 this week.

Josh Jacobs finally got into the end zone last week as Green Bay held off the Los Angeles Rams. That touchdown enabled Jacobs to finish the week as the RB8 in Half-PPR leagues after four straight weeks outside the top 20. Jacobs gets a chance to build on last week's performance in a favorable Week 6 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is a below-average rush defense in most relevant metrics. His workload is about as projectable as they come at the running back position in 2024. Because of that, his place as a low-end RB1 should be relatively safe this week.

Last week didn't pan out the way we all hoped for Wicks. I'm not fading Wicks after one down game where the Rams changed up their corners and found success in stopping Green Bay. He had a 62% route share while tying Jayden Reed for the team lead in target share (23.1%) while leading the way with a 44.2% air-yard share and ranking second in first-read share (23.8%). Wicks is second on the team in red-zone targets while leading the way in end-zone targets. This week, we should get the Wicks game that we all pinned for last week. Since Week 3, Arizona has had the ninth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against single-high, Wicks leads the team with a 34% TPRR while posting a solid 2.18 YPRR and 0.105 FD/RR. Arizona has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Wick will run about 59% of his routes against Starling Thomas (55.6% catch rate and 119.9 passer rating) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (76.5% catch rate and 102.1 passe rating). The one factor that could hurt Wicks this week is if Christian Watson is active. Watson would likely cut into Wicks’ routes and impact his ceiling and floor.

Kraft is a stone-cold baller. He is the TE4 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 13.5% target share. Among 41 qualifying tight ends, he is fifth in YPRR, eighth in receiving yards per game, and 14th in FD/RR. He leads the team with five red zone targets. Since Week 3, Arizona has had the ninth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against single-high, Kraft is second on the team with 2.69 YPRR and third in FD/RR (0.093). Arizona is a middle-of-the-road matchup, allowing the 13th-highest yards per reception and 16th in receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Doubs is back for Week 6 and could be headed for a big game. Doubs is the WR70 in fantasy points per game. This season he has two deep targets and three red zone looks. Doubs has a 16.4% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 21.6% first-read share. Since Week 3, Arizona has had the ninth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against single-high, Doubs leads the team with a 19.3% target share, ranks third on Green Bay with 2.38 YPRR, and first on the team with a 26.8% first-read share. The Green Bay receiver room is a weekly roulette wheel. This week ball could land in Doubs hands often. Doubs will run about 90% of his routes against Starling Thomas (55.6% catch rate and 119.9 passer rating) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (76.5% catch rate and 102.1 passe rating). Arizona has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Watson is still working his way back from an ankle injury. He managed limited practices all week and has been listed as questionable. Green Bay could hold him out this week. If he does suit up, I expect him to operate in a limited role. Even if Watson is active, he's a sit this week.