Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jaylen Waddle is the WR38 in fantasy points per game, as he has suffered through bad quarterback play and questionable play calling through three games. Over the last two games, Waddle has had a 26.2% target share, 3.08 YPRR, one red zone target, four deep targets, and a 35.1% first-read share. This week, he faces a 49ers secondary that has utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (57.7%). Since Week 2, against single high, Waddle has had a 40% target-per-route-run rate and 3.32 YPRR. That's insane usage and production. If Nix can get his head on straight, Waddle should have a banner week. The 49ers have allowed the third-most yards per target and the fourth-most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. Waddle was seen in a boot (foot) leaving last week's game, but he practiced in full to open this week.

RJ Harvey remains Denver's passing-down back. In his two games of action this season, he has had a 42.1% snap rate, only 12.5% of the rushing attempts, a 44.1% route share, and a 17.7% target share (2.31 YPRR). Harvey has averaged 7.5 touches and 44 total yards. Harvey is a middling PPR flex again this week. The 49ers have allowed the ninth-most receiving fantasy points per game to backs, but they have also held them to the sixth-fewest yards per target.

J.K. Dobbins remains Denver's early down hammer. In Weeks 1 and 3, Dobbins had a 46.7% snap rate, 62.5% of the rushing attempts, a 14.7% route share, and a 3.2% target share. In those games, he averaged 13 touches and 44.5 total yards. The biggest worry for Dobbins (outside of his touchdown-or-bust role) has been his inefficiency as a runner. Dobbins has only a 6.7% explosive run rate and a 6% missed tackle rate. These are horrible per-touch metrics for the explosive early down option for Denver. I don't see Dobbins improving those numbers this week. The 49ers have allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Courtland Sutton has started VERY slowly as Bo Nix struggles to support anyone in this passing attack week-to-week. Sutton is the WR80 in fantasy points per game with only a 16.1% target share, 1.04 YPRR, five red zone targets, two deep targets, and a 21.6% first-read share. This week, he faces a 49ers secondary that has utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (57.7%). Since Week 2, against single high, Sutton has had only an 18% target per route run rate and 1.57 YPRR. Last year, he crushed single high with a 26% target per route run rate and 2.32 YPRR. It's asking a lot of Nix to support multiple pass catchers at the moment, but if Nix can snap out of his funk, Sutton does have some flex value in a tough matchup. The 49ers have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per target and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.