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Fantasy Football Player Notes

Week 12 PPR Rankings
Darren Waller Note
Darren Waller photo 20. Darren Waller TE - (at ATL)
There's Travis Kelce... then there's Darren Waller... then there's everyone else. Waller might not have the ceiling of Kelce, but his floor is mighty close. Waller has produced at least 7.0 PPR points in 24-of-26 games dating back to the start of last year. While that may not seem like much if you own Waller, you need to try and stream for a couple weeks. If you are buying into the fact that the Raiders are likely to throw the ball 40-plus times in this game, you should absolutely love Waller, as he's received a 27.8 percent target share this year, which is easily the most among tight ends (Travis Kelce is at 23.8 percent). On top of that, he leads the NFL with 17 red zone targets, which account for 35.4 percent of the Raiders' red zone targets. Despite tight ends being targeted just 6.8 times per game against the Falcons, they've generated 5.7 receptions, 62.2 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game, which are all near the top of the league. Remember how bad the Cardinals were against tight ends last year? They allowed 2.39 PPR points per target to them. The Falcons have played 10-of-16 games and have allowed 2.46 PPR points per target to them. Yeah, this matchup is extremely good. Waller just might beat out Kelce this week.
5 days ago
Josh Jacobs Note
Josh Jacobs photo 24. Josh Jacobs RB - (at ATL)
After failing to score in 5-of-6 games from Week 2 through Week 8, Jacobs has bounced back and scored four touchdowns over the last three weeks. He's received at least 14 carries in 9-of-10 games this year, which is great news, though the matchup in Week 12 might cause some issues. We all know Jacobs isn't heavily involved in the passing game by now, right? He's seen just seven targets over the last four games combined. Well, this is a problem because the Falcons have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs. If you remove all the receiving totals against them, running backs have averaged just 9.1 fantasy points per game, which is behind only the Saints. Of the fantasy production the Falcons have allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for just 25.7 percent of it. Again, the only team who's allowed a lower percentage is the Saints, a team we try to avoid with running backs. It doesn't help that running backs have combined to touch the ball just 23.9 times per game against the Falcons, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league. They've allowed just 3.63 yards per carry and a touchdown every 46.0 carries, which means it'll be tough for Jacobs to smash on the ground, though his 29.3-point team implied total is golden. Through the air, the Falcons have allowed 5.5 receptions and 40.6 yards per game to running backs, so we must hope the Raiders get him involved there, though it's concerning they haven't targeted him more than four times since way back in Week 1. He also hasn't topped 25 receiving yards since Week 1. You're going to start him as a high-end RB2 in this game because of the scoring potential but understand the Falcons have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.
5 days ago
Nelson Agholor Note
Nelson Agholor photo 61. Nelson Agholor WR - (at ATL)
He's leading all wide receivers in efficiency, averaging 2.74 PPR points per target. Naturally, the Raiders have targeted him just 38 times on the year. The difference between him and Ruggs is that he's actually had two games with good volume, including last week when he saw nine targets against the Chiefs. Now going into a matchup with the Falcons, it could be another big one. They've seen a remarkable 22.1 wide receiver targets per game, which is much more than the 13.0 per game the Raiders are averaging. The Falcons have also allowed 210.8 yards per game to wide receviers alone, which ranks as the second-most in the league. There have already been 17 wide receivers who've posted 11.2 or more PPR points against them this year, which is the average number it took to finish as a top-36 wide receiver last year. Seeing the 29.3-point team implied total, you're hoping Agholor gets a piece of that action in this great matchup. He should be considered a WR4 with upside this week, though you're likely sacrificing a floor to put him in lineups.
5 days ago
Henry Ruggs III Note
Henry Ruggs III photo 109. Henry Ruggs III WR - (at ATL)
Just how bad has it gotten for Ruggs? Well, NFL's NextGenStats requires 28 targets to be a part of the results. Ruggs is no longer part of the results. It's maddening and confusing, as he's averaging 9.8 yards per target, so he hasn't been bad or anything. When playing against the Falcons, wide receivers have outscored running backs by a massive 22.1 PPR points, which is the second-largest gap in the league. Touchdowns aren't even required against them, as they've allowed a massive 9.54 yards per target to wide receivers. Even better is that they've allowed a massive 14.64 yards per reception, which is the most in the league. Ruggs has a ridiculously-high 19.5 air yards per target, so maybe he connects with Carr deep down the field? That's what we have to hope for considering he's go what seems like a four-target ceiling. For what it's worth, no receiver who's played the Falcons and seen fewer than five targets has finished as a top-50 option. If you're playing Ruggs, you're doing it because you know how great the matchup is and you're willing to take the risk. You're going to need a major offensive philosophy change for that upside to happen. He's just a boom-or-bust WR5.
5 days ago
Hunter Renfrow Note
Hunter Renfrow photo 116. Hunter Renfrow WR - (at ATL)
Devontae Booker Note
Devontae Booker photo 148. Devontae Booker RB - (at ATL)
Booker had become more and more involved in the offense recently, but he took a back seat with the Raiders staying in that game all the way to the end. Booker should receive plenty of work when the game-script gets favorable, but it's hard to rely on that for fantasy purposes. He's nothing more than a low-end RB3 that should only be plugged into your lineup if you're absolutely desperate.
7 days ago
Bryan Edwards Note
Bryan Edwards photo 201. Bryan Edwards WR - (at ATL)
Jason Witten Note
Jason Witten photo 229. Jason Witten TE - (at ATL)
Alec Ingold Note
Alec Ingold photo 234. Alec Ingold RB - (at ATL)
Foster Moreau Note
Foster Moreau photo 269. Foster Moreau TE - (at ATL)
Zay Jones Note
Zay Jones photo 295. Zay Jones WR - (at ATL)
Derek Carrier Note
Derek Carrier photo 336. Derek Carrier TE - (at ATL)
Theo Riddick Note
Theo Riddick photo 400. Theo Riddick RB - (at ATL)