Fantasy Football Player Notes

Henry finished Week 1 with a disappointing 13 carries and 46 rushing yards. His touchdown saved his fantasy day, but his 46% snap rate and lack of pass-game involvement were concerning. Henry only played 33.3% of the passing down snaps as Justice Hill gobbled up all the passing game work. Unless this changes, Henry will be an extremely game script-dependent back for 2024. Henry only forced missed tackles on 8% of his rushing attempts with 1.77 yards after contact per attempt in Week 1. Neither of these numbers are fantastic by any stretch of the imagination, but let's keep it real. It was one game, so don't hit the panic button just yet. The Ravens are heavy favorites this week, so Henry should get more work in Week 2. If the Raiders are as bad as their Week 1 showing as a run defense, they could be in trouble this year. Las Vegas allowed 176 rushing yards (fourth-most) while also giving up the ninth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt. This looks like a good venue for Baltimore to get this offensive line and Henry going.

Flowers' Week 1 usage was quite similar to his 2023 season. Baltimore still funneled underneath looks to him with a 6.1 aDOT and a 40% designed target rate. Overall, Flowers had a 24.4% target share, a 20.8% air-yard share, 0.79 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. The yards per route run jumps off the page, but the Chiefs were clamping down on these underneath passes all game with increasing success as the game moved along. Flowers could find more success with the short passes in Week 2, though, against a defense that had the 11th-most missed tackles last year while also giving up the third-most yards after the catch. Flowers will run about 76% of his routes against Jakorian Bennett (2023: 65.6% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating) and Jack Jones (2023: 60.6% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating).

Isaiah Likely and Andrews' usages were flipped last week. Andrews had a 70% route run clip, with 72% of his snaps coming from the slot, so it's not like he wasn't out there. Unlike Flowers, though, Andrews didn't have any designed targets. Andrews finished with a 4.9% target share and an 8.7% first-read share. I don't see either of these metrics continuing as his norm moving forward unless there's an injury or underlying reason that hasn't been shared publicly by the team. The Raiders utilized single high on 53.8% of their defensive snaps in Week 1. Last year, Andrews was second on the team in target share (18.5%) and first-read share (20.3%) against a single high. Last year against single-high, among 40 qualifying tight ends, Andrews ranked fifth in separation score and second in route win rate. Last season, the Raiders allowed the ninth-most receptions to tight ends while ranking 17th in fantasy points allowed to slot tight ends.

Likely went bonkers in Week 1 with a 29.3% target share, a 38.2% air-yard share, and 3.58 yards per route run. His 26.1 fantasy points will likely be a season-high, but we can't dismiss Likely's usage. He will remain involved heavily in this offense, but these market share numbers aren't sustainable unless Andrews isn't as healthy as we've been led to believe. Likely only had a 60.8% route participation. The Raiders utilized single high on 53.8% of their defensive snaps in Week 1. Last year against single-high, among 40 qualifying tight ends, Likely ranked eighth in separation score and 11th in route win rate. Last season, the Raiders allowed the ninth-most receptions to tight ends while ranking 17th in fantasy points allowed to slot tight ends.

This doesn't project as a big Hill game unless the Raiders can surprise and keep this game close or take the lead for much of Week 2. Last week, Hill had a 54% snap rate while finishing with seven touches and 55 total yards, with the bulk of that coming through the air. Hill played on 66% of the passing downs while only seeing a 17% snap rate on rushing plays. If Baltimore is able to control this game which is what the current spread projects, Hill won't see the field much. The Raiders did allow the sixth-most receptions to running backs last year, but they also held the position to the seventh-lowest yards per reception. Sit Hill this week.

Bateman only saw a 12.2% target share and an 8.7% first-read share in Week 1 as the team's downfield weapon. He did soak up a 23.6 aDOT with a 40.3% air-yard share, which could come in handy this week if you're looking for some sneaky ceiling from your flex. In Week 1, the Raiders utilized single-high on 53.8% of their defensive snaps. Last year, while the counting stats weren't there for Bateman, that doesn't mean he wasn't good against single high. Among 112 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked tenth in separation score and 12th in route win rate. If Lamar Jackson is looking for big plays downfield in Week 2, expect Bateman to be the receiver he turns to. Bateman will run about 90% of his routes against Jakorian Bennett (2023: 65.6% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating) and Jack Jones (2023: 60.6% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating).