There will be plenty of matchups to be bullish regarding Flowers' outlook, but this isn't one of them. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Flowers scorched single-high last season, but his numbers against two-high were pedestrian. Against this coverage type, he only garnered a 19.6% target share and a 20.2% air-yard share while producing 1.12 yards per route run with Mark Andrews in the lineup. Look for Andrews to lead the way this week as he dominates two-high matchups for Baltimore. Flowers will run about 69% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating). It's also possible Flowers draws shadow coverage from McDuffie.

Hopkins is dealing with a knee injury, but he's expected to play in Week 1, according to the latest reports I've read. He practiced on a limited basis all week and has been listed as questionable. Last year, he was the WR29 in fantasy points per game. With Will Levis under center last year (Weeks 8-15), he saw a 26.9% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, and produced 2.40 yards per route run as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Those market share numbers will drop some with Calvin Ridley in town. Hopkins was the only main show in town last season. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it's tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4 with Levis under center, Hopkins had a 29.8% target share, 3.0 YPRR, a 37.6% first-read share, and 0.102 FD/RR. Hopkins will run about 79% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating)

Bateman is the sneaky flex play in this game. Last year, his overall numbers weren't great, but he was extremely effective against two-high coverage. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Against two-high, Bateman had an 18% target per route run rate, which was only a small tick behind Flowers (19%), but Bateman produced 1.82 yards per route run while also ranking second on the team against two-high with 0.34 fantasy points per route run. With a strong total and a close (ish) spread, there will be scoring in this game, and if Baltimore can keep up their end of that bargain, Bateman should be part of the scoring onslaught. He will run most of his routes on the boundary against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating).

In Weeks 12-18, Likely was third on the team in target share (14%) and yards per route run (1.52) against two-high. With Andrews back in the fold, Likely will still be involved, but he probably won't be a top-three option in the passing attack in Week 1. Park Likely on the bench this week against a defense that allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends last year.

Hill is an interesting deep league/desperation flex play for Week 1. While Derrick Henry will shoulder much of the backfield load for 2024, we are still unsure how much Hill will play. Hill could be passing down back or seeing the field more when the team is trailing. We just don't know. While the spread is tight and doesn't foreshadow Baltimore getting buried in this game, the matchup is too juicy to disregard Hill this week totally. Hill proved capable of ripping off chunk plays last year, ranking 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in explosive run rate. 52.4% of his runs were on zone plays, where he had the third-highest yards per carry on zone runs (5.8). The Chiefs allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt last year. Even if Hill only gets a handful of touches in this game, it only takes one big play for him to pay off.