DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Wednesday (4/19)

by Nicholas Volinchak
Apr 19, 2017

Trey Mancini has destroyed left-handed pitching over his young career

Welcome back to another edition of our MLB Value Plays for 4/19/17 on DraftKings. We will be offering up a pitcher under $8k, as well as a hitter at each position, and three in the outfield, that are priced $3.5k or under. A new feature to my value play article this year, we will be keeping track of how many home runs we are able to provide to our readers.

Last week, Steven Wright was about as a bad as a pitcher could be. On top of that, we have no value home runs to report. That isn’t to say that some of those plays didn’t have good games, but none of them were able to leave the yard. Let’s change that tonight!

Value Homers: 2

Let’s get things started!

Check out today’s MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings >>

Pitcher

Jason Vargas (KC): $5,300 vs. SF
The verdict is out on Jason Vargas: he’s not a good pitcher. Oh, wait. Maybe he is? After all, he’s put together two solid outings this year thus far, and has shown nothing to us to indicate that he’s worth stacking against. We know that Vargas isn’t really a high strikeout guy, but we also know that we want to attack the Giants against righties over lefties. Look, the $8k and under show is awful tonight. You’ve got at least five guys above $8k that I’d consider using before I would go to Vargas. He could even end up being a popular pick, who knows. I don’t hate the idea behind it, though. It’s really unsettling again and again to hear the talk about how so and so is a bad pitcher because of the stats from last year. I get it, we need a larger sample size, but sometimes you gotta focus on the here and now.

Catcher

Cameron Rupp (PHI): $2,900 @ NYM
The Phillies are a team that we are told to pick on, yet they score runs and ruin our nights all the time. Rupp finds himself against Robert Gsellman who was able to show approximately no control the last time he was on the field. I expect him to over compensate this time and put a few too many down the center of the plate. If that is the case, Rupp will end up having a field day. Gsellman has been destroyed by right-handed bats to this point.

First Base

Trey Mancini (BAL): $3,400 @ CIN
I had Logan Morrison all ready to go for this one, and I still believe he’s a fine tournament punt, but when I saw where Mancini was priced, I had to giggle for a bit. Are you really telling me that against Amir Garrett he’s this cheap? Fine by me. He’s going to make it into a ton of my lineups. Amir Garrett might be riding high right now, but that is on the heels of two games played in pitcher’s parks such as Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Heading to his home field in Cincinnati is going to be an entirely different story. Maninci has been ripping the cover off the ball and makes a fine option for your tournament lineups.

Second Base

Neil Walker (NYM): $3,400 vs. PHI
At first I thought I didn’t mind Vincent Velasquez in tournaments, but he is getting hit way too hard by lefties, and the Mets have way too many lefties to make me feel comfortable with that tonight. Walker is one of the bats I want to look at to benefit from the fly ball rates and hard contact that Velasquez is allowing. It has not been a good start to the year for Walker, and he has no home runs yet, but this represents as good a time as any to get the party started.

Third Base

Chase Headley (NYY): $3,400 vs. CWS
I will admit to not knowing too much about Dylan Covey, but I know enough about Headley’s 2017 campaign that makes me all too willing to jump into things here. He’s been awesome and while obviously there will eventually be a drop off, I don’t think it’s going to be tonight. Thus far this year, Covey has been a reverse splits pitcher, but it was only one outing. I can see him making a mistake tonight and Headley making him pay for it. He’s a nice tournament option for me.

Shortstop

Zack Cozart (CIN): $3,500 vs. BAL
I am 100% convinced this is a trap game for the Reds offense. Last night, all the buzz was on how good the Orioles were going to be against Bronson Arroyo and that blew up in everyone’s face. Tonight, the Orioles will send Ubaldo Jiminez to the mound, and he is one of the guys DFS players love to pick on. My prediction for the night is that the Orioles will score 10 runs while the Reds will score 2 – both attributed to Cozart. My gut feeling could be way off, but either way, Cozart is a guy I’m all over tonight.

Outfielders

David Peralta (ARI): $3,600 @ SDP
Yes, for a second straight week, I am in attack mode with the Diamondbacks. I am a believer that this is a good offense, just as much as I am a believer that the Padres have horrible pitching. I don’t care what stadium they are playing in. Peralta hasn’t been “on” as much as we would like him to be thus far this year, but Jhoulys Chacin and his struggles with lefty bats should make this a better situation for Peralta. The power is there and I can see him sending one over the fences tonight.

Steven Souza Jr. (TAM): $3,500 vs. DET
Souza Jr. is typically a guy that we wanted to use against left-handed pitching, but in the early part of the year, the returns have been excellent on pitching from both sides of the plate. Jordan Zimmermann is an unexciting pitcher, headed down the tailspin of his career, and I think he’s in prime position to be picked on tonight. The upside for a guy like Souza Jr. is pretty good all things considered, and I’ll take some shots with him in tournaments tonight.

Jeremy Hazelbaker (ARI): $3,200 @ SDP
Alright, this one is a bit risky, considering there is a big question if he will be in the lineup. When he has been given opportunity in the early part of the season, he’s done very well. If the Diamondbacks really want to go after Chacin, and the Padres in general, it’s going to be with lefties, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the lineup. His upside is great when compared to his price, and he’s someone I need to have exposure to in tournaments.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Nicholas Volinchak is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can find more of Nicholas’ baseball work at Research Fantasy. To read more from Nicholas, follow him @researchandwin.


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