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By The Numbers: Aaron Hicks, Rougned Odor, Jordan Montgomery

By The Numbers: Aaron Hicks, Rougned Odor, Jordan Montgomery

Last week, I kicked things off by taking a look at Zack Cozart, who was a surprise name near the top of the OPS leaderboards.

Well, this week another name has caught my eye, and that’s Aaron Hicks, who is the proud owner of a top-10 OPS among qualified hitters (.994). In April, he performed well right out the gate, but back then it was easy to pass off as a fluky small sample size of a guy who wasn’t even playing every day. Fast-forward to today, and he’s the New York Yankees’ starting centerfielder, and manager Joe Girardi said that would remain the case even after Jacoby Ellsbury returns from the DL.

So is Hicks the real deal? He’s on pace to shatter a bunch of career-bests, with 39 runs, 10 home runs, 36 RBIs, and seven stolen bases, while batting .314/.423/.571. The RBIs are already more than he’s ever accumulated, and he’s one away from tying his personal best in homers. But perhaps the most notable change is his batting average.

Previously, he’s never hit higher than .256, and his career average entering the season was a mere .223. Of course, the first place we look when we see that sort of leap is BABIP, and sure enough, Hicks has an out of character .341 BABIP, which towers over his low pre-2017 career number (.266). Even if we assume he can maintain a league average .300 BABIP moving forward, that still suggests a good dose of regression.

The power looks a little suspect too, as he’s never come close to sniffing his 18.5% HR/FB rate in previous campaigns. That being said, he’s hitting his fair share of fly balls, and his average exit velocity on balls hit in the air is up a tick from 2016 (92.4 mph to 93.7 mph).

Whether or not that is simply a small sample size remains to be seen. He’s making hard contact at a higher rate than he ever has (31.5%), although it’s still a middle of the road mark.

Despite some of the signs that he’s playing over his head, he’s shown some improved plate disciple, continuing his career trend of striking out at a below average rate (16.8%), while chasing fewer balls out of the zone. His walk rate is nearly double what he did last season (15.9%), which has helped him garner that impressive .423 OBP.

What can we conclude from all this? Some regression appears to be in order, and we can’t expect Hicks to maintain this lofty OPS all season. But the solid plate discipline indicates there could be some real positive changes at work here, and maybe some of the power has legs.

Yes, Hicks will drop from this pace, but he won’t fall off a cliff either. Hitting in the top half of a strong Yankees lineup every day, while mixing in a little pop and speed, he’ll maintain plenty of fantasy value moving forward.

Who else is doing intriguing things By The Numbers?

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Rougned Odor has a scary infield fly rate (24.1%)
The fantasy community was mixed on Odor coming into the season, with some expecting him to build on last year’s breakout, while others cautioned there were red flags that could take him a few steps back. So far, the latter appears to be the case.

Odor has been nothing short of a disappointment, mustering a slash line with career-lows across the board (.216/.255/.394). No doubt, the average is partially the result of a 23.4% strikeout rate. But he’s also popping up his fly balls with alarming frequency, particularly when compared to last year’s single-digit rate (8.2%).

In fact, among qualified hitters, only Byron Buxton has a higher infield fly rate. The pop-ups are nothing new for Odor — he had similar issues in 2014 and 2015 — but the difference is he’s hitting more fly balls than the did back then. For a ground ball hitter, a high infield fly rate isn’t as big a deal, but for someone who hits as many fly balls as Odor does, this is like adding a bunch of extra punchouts on top of an already poor strikeout rate.

This could all be the result of Odor’s poor plate discipline finally coming to a head. Much like last year, he’s swinging at too many pitches out of the zone (40.3%), resulting in a 23.0% soft-hit rate, which is far above the 15.4% he had in 2016.

And as always, the free-swinger still doesn’t walk much (4.0% rate). Furthermore, he’s seeing fewer and fewer fastballs as the year goes, with pitchers well aware of where most of those long balls come from.

So what’s the good news? He still has a 35.2% hard-hit rate and a 95.2 mph average exit velocity on balls hit in the air, so the power is still there. He has 11 dingers on the season, four of which have come in June, so getting in the neighborhood of last year’s 33 is certainly possible.

But a lot needs to change for him to salvage his overall value. History suggests he won’t hit .216 the rest of the year, but at this point, a repeat of 2016 looks unlikely.

Jordan Montgomery is top-10 in Swinging-Strike Rate (12.7%)
With the Yankees turning into an offensive juggernaut, it’s easy to forget that Jordan Montgomery is quietly having an impressive rookie season. An unexpected winner of a rotation spot in Spring Training, he has a 3.55 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a 25.0% hard-hit rate.

But perhaps most intriguing is his 23.0% strikeout rate, supported by a swinging-strike rate better than Clayton Kershaw, Lance McCullers and Stephen Strasburg. That’s some elite company, and while it’s probably a bit much to think he’ll reach the strikeout prowess of those three, at the very least, it suggests his strikeouts are very real.

On the season he has an elevated 8.7% walk rate, but he’s gotten it down to 6.2% over his last six starts. One should always expect some growing pains with young hurlers, but it’s hard not to get excited with what he’s done so far. Montgomery is surprisingly still available in a lot of leagues and is worth snagging before more people take notice.

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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.

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