There was a time, not long ago, when Cam Newton was looked at as the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy football. He threw for more than 4,000 yards his rookie season, breaking the all-time record. He ran for more than 700 yards in each of his first two seasons, while accumulating 22 rushing touchdowns, also setting records. Since that time, he’s won an MVP award. So why am I telling you not to draft Cam Newton as a top 10 quarterback in 2017?

You see, most quarterbacks get better as they get older, learning the ins and the outs of the NFL game. With Newton, he’s regressed as his career’s gone on, despite him winning that MVP award that I mentioned earlier. From his completion percentage that was 60.0 percent his rookie year to just 52.9 percent in 2016, to his yards per attempt that was 7.8 his rookie year to just 6.9 in 2016, and the worst of it all, his rushing totals from 709 yards and 14 touchdowns his rookie year to just 359 yards and five touchdowns in 2016.

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Mobility

We’ve all known for quite some time that mobile quarterbacks tend to break down much earlier than pocket passers for obvious reasons, but we didn’t think that’d happen with the 6-5, 245-pound Newton. He was essentially the NFL’s version of LeBron James. He absorbed hits early in his career, got up like nothing happened, and did his signature “tear apart his shirt to expose Superman” pose. He was Superman, until he wasn’t.

In Week 4 of 2016, against the Atlanta Falcons, Newton was showboating (this is not exaggerating, as it should’ve been an easy touchdown without being touched) his way into the end-zone when he was hit by Deion Jones. He was diagnosed with a concussion and wound up missing Week 5. Since that time, the Panthers made it clear that they needed to protect Newton and wanted him running the ball less. There were multiple instances earlier in the season where Newton took some rough hits that the Panthers felt were unfair, and when watching them back, they had ground to stand on. But with someone like Newton, who presented such a threat on the ground, I also understood the other side of the argument.

Moving forward, the Panthers made good on that promise as Newton ran the ball just 61 times for 212 yards and three touchdowns. The running backs went from a combined 19.8 carries per game over the first four games, to 22.3 carries per game over the final 12 games. Newton’s 16-game pace after his concussion would amount to 89 carries for 308 yards and four touchdowns. Here’s a look at his numbers pre-concussion.

*16-game pace after concussion in 2016

As you can see, his numbers had been trending down even before his concussion, with exception to his 2015 campaign. When looking at his pace, he’s still posting rushing numbers, but whose do they most resemble? Those totals are a step below Blake Bortles and Andrew Luck, but above Russell Wilson’s 2016 campaign, which was due to him being injured the first half of the season (averaged 28.4 rush yards per game over the final seven games, paces 455 yards). Considering the Panthers extended Jonathan Stewart, drafted Christian McCaffrey with the No. 8 overall pick, and drafted converted running back Curtis Samuel in the second-round, it seems the Panthers have given you every reason to believe Newton’s rushing totals will be suppressed. Keep in mind that his pace last year didn’t include McCaffrey or Samuel on the field.

Sub-Par Passing

Now that we’re comfortably projecting Newton for 250-350 rushing yards with maybe four touchdowns, can he make up for his rushing decline with his arm? The answer to this question is “very unlikely.” I mentioned at the start of this article that Newton threw for 4,000 yards his rookie season, breaking what was the record at that time (Andrew Luck broke it since then). In the five seasons that ensued after his rookie year, Newton has failed to throw for more than 3,869 yards in any one season, despite the NFL becoming more and more pass heavy. That yardage would’ve been the No. 17 quarterback in 2016, behind Sam Bradford. And again, keep in mind that’s Newton’s highest total since his rookie year.

Even including his rookie season, here’s Newton’s average line as a passer over the course of his career: 285/488 for 3,628 yards, 22.7 touchdowns and 13.0 interceptions. So, who do his career totals look like (player-wise) in 2016? Blake Bortles, who threw for 3,905 yards, 23 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Am I saying that Newton is as bad as Bortles? No, but I’m also saying that his career numbers as a passer are not far off what Bortles’ were in 2016.

Impossible to Repeat 2015 Season

When you talk to people who point to Newton’s 2015 MVP season as an example of how great he can be, you can point to the fact that he threw touchdowns on 7.1 percent of his passes that year, a far cry from where his career marks have been.

If you were to bring his 2015 touchdown percentage to his career percentage, Newton would’ve thrown for 23 touchdowns, which has been his average season in the NFL. To give you an idea as to how hard it is to throw for touchdowns 7.1 percent of the time, there were just three quarterbacks who topped a 5.7 percent touchdown rate in 2016: Matt Ryan (7.1 percent), Aaron Rodgers (6.6 percent), and Tom Brady (6.5 percent). I’m sorry, but Newton isn’t even in the company of those quarterbacks, as strictly passers. I’d also argue that Ryan doesn’t fit in, as he had a career-year in 2016, similar to Newton’s 2015 (Ryan’s career percentage is 4.74 percent, a tad higher than Newton’s, but he throws a lot more).

2017 Outlook

Not wanting to include the 2015 outlier in our projections, let’s just take Newton’s second-best season as a pro (which I think is fair) and tie it in with our new rushing projection. In 2012, Newton threw for 3,869 yards with 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, which amounts to 206.8 fantasy points. Adding in his pace over the final 11 games (which is again, generous considering the additions to the backfield) that would amount to 308 yards and four touchdowns, or 54.8 fantasy points. Throw in two fumbles (Newton’s career average is 2.5/year) and we come out with 257.6 fantasy points, which would have been good enough for the No. 16 fantasy quarterback, just behind Tom Brady who played only 12 games.

Some have said that Newton played hurt throughout the 2016 season, which is why he wound up getting shoulder surgery in the offseason. While a shoulder injury would definitely hamper his ability to throw the ball, it didn’t reportedly happen until Week 14 against the Chargers. That left just three games for him to play through his injury, not affecting his overall numbers much at all. In fact, he threw for 7.4 yards per attempt and 8.1 yards per attempt in two of those games, higher than his season total.

If you couldn’t tell, I’m not an advocate of drafting Newton in 2017, as his ceiling just isn’t there without him running the ball. Again, not that he won’t run it at all, but he isn’t touching his 500-plus yard totals that he was early in his career. If we brought his touchdown percentage from 2015 down to his career average (4.64 percent), he would’ve finished with 297.2 fantasy points in 2015, while scoring 10 (!!) rushing touchdowns. That would’ve had him finish as the No. 7 fantasy quarterback in 2015, rather than the No. 1 finish that he did. Combine that with the fact that he’s finished as the No. 17 quarterback in the other two most recent seasons (2014 and 2016), and you have yourself a head-scratcher as to why he’s being taken as the No. 7 quarterback off the board. He’d have to fall outside the top 10 quarterbacks for me to even consider him, and even then I’d have a tough time pulling the trigger. If you own him in dynasty, now is the time to sell considering he’s still going as a top-five quarterback.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.