In Week 4 of the NFL season two productive rookie running backs suffered season-ending injuries. It is always unfortunate when any injury happens, and especially so for rookies. These are athletes in the prime of their lives, finally making things happen at the professional level, only to have that taken away by injuries. Here’s hoping Dalvin Cook and Chris Carson make speedy and full recoveries. I’m sure we’ll see plenty more from them next year.
It was a quiet week overall for rookies other than Deshaun Watson‘s finish as the number one overall fantasy player. The highest-selected receivers in this year’s draft are both injured, and of the rookie running backs I discussed last week only Leonard Fournette had a truly dominant performance.
But just because the rookies from the 2017 draft class didn’t dominate in Week 4 doesn’t mean they aren’t worth knowing and paying attention to. Keeping up to date on under-the-radar rookies can be a great way to get an edge this year and to stay ahead of your opponents next year. So while I will be breaking down Deshaun Watson‘s big day, the two players after him on this list are also worth your attention.
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Deshaun’s Field Day
Watson’s 34.72-point performance against the Tennessee Titans led the league in fantasy points in Week 4. He threw for 283 yards and four touchdowns, and added 24 yards on the ground and another touchdown on four rushing attempts.
This is the second straight week where Watson has scored over 20 fantasy points, so it’s time to acknowledge that he is a real and viable option going forward. If you don’t recall, he picked apart the New England Patriots defense in Week 3 for another two touchdowns and over 300 yards.
So what makes Watson special? His rushing floor helps. His 148 yards on the ground lead the league at the quarterback position, and his average of almost five rushes per game can help buoy his fantasy numbers in any given week.
Plus, he has help from an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, the current target-leader in the NFL. Watkins is giving his best guy every chance he can to succeed, and so far it looks like it’s working.
It doesn’t hurt that he also just got Will Fuller back from a broken collarbone injury suffered in the preseason. As a deep threat Fuller plays into another one of Watson’s strengths: the deep ball.
While Watson’s arm strength is in just the third percentile of quarterbacks, he likes to take deep shots. Per NFL.com’s new next gen stats, Watson has the seventh highest average intended air yards per attempt. In other words, he’s throwing deeper on average than most other quarterbacks in the league. His “Time to Throw” metric on the next gen stats page of 3.11 seconds also leads the league, and demonstrates his tendency to hang on to the ball and look for the deep ball.
It’s certainly exciting to see a young quarterback excel in the NFL, but temper expectations for Deshaun Watson in fantasy football. He just had two monstrous weeks in a row, but let’s not get carried away. Those performances were against two of the worst defenses in the league.
Still, it is important to know that against weak defenses he can succeed and put up viable numbers for fantasy. His draw against Kansas City will be a tough match, but he gets a cupcake matchup against Cleveland in two weeks. You’re going to want to start him for that one.
Aaaaaalviiiiin!!
Alvin Kamara finished with the big dogs this weekend as the seventh highest scoring running back with 20.6 fantasy points in half-point PPR leagues and he’s doing it in a non-traditional way: through the air.
Kamara’s 70 air yards (data taken from AirYards.com) are the eighth most in the league at the running back position and he is just getting started. He’s seen his snap counts rise over each of the last two weeks while competitor Adrian Peterson has seen his snap counts decline. Kamara is winning this job from Adrian Peterson.
Kamara isn’t the team’s primary running back. That title belongs to Mark Ingram. But Kamara’s value in the passing game fits perfectly in the New Orleans Saints’ system. The Saints throw to their running backs a ton. Remember Travaris Cadet in 2016? Cadet had over 50 targets over the course of the season while operating solely as a third-down back.
Kamara is easily a more explosive weapon for the Saints offense than Cadet was, and they know it. In Week 4 Drew Brees targeted Kamara 10 times. He converted those 10 targets into 71 yards and a touchdown.
And it seems like he’s not just a passing down back (from a talent perspective). He’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry when he’s been given the ball, though that hasn’t been very often and isn’t likely to change for as long as Ingram is healthy. Still, it’s nice to see the rookie being efficient carrying the ball.
Ten targets and efficient usage on the ground makes Kamara a good flex play in PPR formats. Drew Brees is one of the best in the game, and you should want to get anyone catching a significant number of passes from him on your roster.
The Prophet Elijah (McGuire)
As an NFL prospect, Elijah McGuire was impressive. He was dominant in college and was significantly involved as a pass catcher. His size (5’10”, 214 pounds) fits the prototypical build for an NFL running back, and his 4.53-second 40-yard dash was pretty darn fast. The only red ‘X’ on McGuire’s college resume was that he didn’t play for a big school.
On Sunday McGuire proved that you don’t need to come from a big-name school to succeed in the NFL. On 10 attempts McGuire posted 93 yards and a touchdown while adding another two catches for 38 yards.
It’s worth noting that McGuire likely only has this job for as long as Matt Forte is out. We’ve seen what Bilal Powell can do when given a substantial workload with the Jets, but McGuire proved himself on Sunday as a viable alternative for either back in case of injury.
This is an important role and something to remember down the road. Forte is now almost 32 years old and has suffered from multiple injuries over the last two seasons. Powell is also 29 years old and also has an extensive injury history. While it seems unlikely now, McGuire’s path to significant touches in this offense isn’t quite as long and windy as it seems.
The Jets have made it clear that they prefer to use a committee of running backs in their offensive plan, rather than just leaning on one. For as long as Forte is injured, McGuire is guaranteed touches.
Thinking long term, both Forte and Powell are only under contract through next year, too (both will be free agents in 2019). This means that in a couple years McGuire could have this job all to himself and that those of us paying attention to him now will be able to profit when he does get that job.
But let’s bring this back to the short term. The Jets are playing against the Browns this week, which is a positive matchup for them. McGuire will have another chance to shine against a weak defense, and if Forte sits again in Week 5 then McGuire could be in for another big week.
Conclusion
That’s it for this week’s rookie report. Week 5 is shaping up to be an exciting one for rookies with Mitchell Trubisky making his first start and with Deshaun Watson playing on fire the last two weeks.
I’ll be back with more information in next week’s Rookie Report. Until then, good luck in your fantasy leagues this week.
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Aidan Mcgrath is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Aidan, check out his archive and follow him @ffaidanmcgrath.
