If I can follow Sam Darnold’s lead and forget about Jermaine Kearse, Week 7’s overvalued/undervalued calls went relatively well. Marlon Mack and David Njoku flourished. Corey Clement succumbed to an ineffective timeshare, and Austin Hooper turned back into a pumpkin.

As always, this column uses the site’s standard ECR to find where I differ from the field. These rankings are updated as of Thursday evening, so expect some shakeups-perhaps even only my end-before Sunday’s slate. I also will avoid any disparities driven primarily by injury uncertainty.

Not every difference is significant enough to change the answer to the time-honored “Start or Sit?” conundrum. Yet a couple of players labeled as overvalued fall closer into the hold-your-breath flex tier.

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Quarterback

Undervalued: Drew Brees (NO at MIN) – ECR: QB8; My Rank: QB4
Drew Brees is good at quarterbacking. Can I move on now? I didn’t expect to see such a discrepancy here, and he must have personally besmirched the ranker who slotted him as the QB27 (?!?). Among full-time starting quarterbacks, only Patrick Mahomes (27.3) and the idle Matt Ryan (24.3) have averaged more fantasy points than Brees (23.6), who has augmented his record-setting completion percentage by 5.3 points without throwing a pick. The Ravens rank second in passing defense, so he suffers no penalty for Week 7’s mundane 212 yards and two touchdowns. If anything, owners should feel better about getting a decent return in any spot. Going to Minnesota, meanwhile, feels like a tougher matchup than it is. In reality, they rank 19th in DVOA against the pass despite facing three rookie quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Darnold). While they are hoping to welcome back Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr and Xavier Rhodes are both uncertain to play after leaving Week 7 early. Sunday night’s NFC Divisional Round rematch flaunts a healthy 52-point over-under line as of Thursday, making Brees and Kirk Cousins front-line plays.

Overvalued: Jared Goff (LAR vs. GB) – ECR: QB3; My Rank: QB8
I don’t have anything particularly disparaging to say about Jared Goff. He has averaged 391 yards and three touchdowns in three home games. Although the Packers rank fifth in passing defense, they’re a far more average 15th in DVOA against the pass. Even without the doubtful Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks should take their cornerbacks to the woodshed for some explosive plays. Go ahead and start him. Yet perhaps I’m not as forgiving of his QB23 placement over the last three games. Last Sunday’s performance (18-of-24, 202 yards, two touchdowns) marked his best outing of the road trip, but it’s also the most alarming to his rest-of-season outlook. With everything clicking against a soft San Francisco defense, the Rams leaned heavily on Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown for 28 combined rushes. Goff’s passing attempts have lessened (36, 33, 32, 28, 24) in each of the last four games, and that low volume is precisely why myself and others shied away from drafting him as a QB1. Gurley has 18 more red-zone rushes (43) than runner-up Alvin Kamara, and the Packers rank 30th in DVOA against the run. Even if it’s a shootout, it’s easy to envision Goff taking a back seat to his superstar running back for stats along the lines of 275 yards and two touchdowns. Guiding pass-first attacks into favorable matchups with their starting running backs banged up or inactive, Cousins (vs. NO), Andrew Luck (at OAK), and Jameis Winston (at CIN) all have a better chance of chucking 40-plus passes.

Running Back

Undervalued: Tarik Cohen (CHI vs. NYJ) – ECR: RB17; My Rank: RB13
What does Tarik Cohen need to do to get more respect? He has nearly duplicated Alvin Kamara’s fantasy production over the last three games (53.8 to 53.5) while averaging more standard points than Ezekiel Elliott (15.1) and David Johnson (13.1). He led the Bears in targets each time, collecting 22 catches for 280 yards and two touchdowns in the process. Chicago has upped his snap rate in each of the last four contests, and he has compiled nine red-zone touches over that stretch. With the hosting Bears favored by 7.5 points over the Jets, the biggest concern is him sacrificing opportunities to Jordan Howard. Fear not: Cohen recorded 174 yards and a touchdown on a career-high 20 touches in Week 4’s 48-10 triumph over Tampa Bay. He now looks like a dynamic, multi-layered star to trust on a weekly basis a la Christian McCaffrey and James White.

Overvalued: Doug Martin (OAK vs. IND) – ECR: RB25; My Rank: RB30
With Marshawn Lynch placed on the injured reserve, Raiders coach Jon Gruden endorsed Doug Martin as his “feature back.” Any rusher promised touches warrants waiver-wire attention and starting consideration in the right spot. A home matchup against the Colts could also represent the perfect time for the 1-5 Raiders to establish the run. Too bad Martin isn’t any good. When given constant chances to shine in 2016 and 2017, he averaged 2.9 yards per carry each year. It’s all the way up to 3.7 in 2018. He has registered 27 receptions in his 25 games and hasn’t reached triple-digit rushing yards since exploding for 235 on Nov. 22, 2015. Don’t blame a limited workload. He has since handled 15 0r more carries in 15 games. As for that featured role, the vastly superior Lynch finished his last two games as the RB42 and 30 with 22 combined carries. Martin must prove he’s more than a touchdown-dependent flex play. By the way, the Colts rank 8th in DVOA against the run.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Doug Baldwin (SEA at DET) – ECR: ECR25; My Rank: WR19
Maybe I’m the aggressive one on Doug Baldwin. Before exploiting a feeble Oakland defense to 91 yards, he caught his only target for a single yard against the Rams. While playing in a run-first offense, he has drawn 16 of Russell Wilson’s 70 targets since returning from a knee injury in Week 4. The Lions rank seventh against the pass, but they have also allowed 8.0 yards per attempt. Working predominantly from the slot, Baldwin should spring free from Darius Slay, who will likely instead draw Tyler Lockett on the outside. Baldwin, who scored 29 touchdowns over the last three seasons, can inch closer to WR1 territory by usurping Lockett as Wilson’s preferred end-zone partner. Lockett has scored five touchdowns despite receiving just four red-zone targets, and Week 6’s bye should lead to a healthier, rested Baldwin capitalizing on a favorable matchup.

Overvalued: Marvin Jones (DET vs. SEA) – ECR: WR28; My Rank: WR36
The Lions were able to support three fantasy-viable receivers when throwing the ball. Yet not enough attention is paid to them gradually shifting into a run-heavy attack. Here are Matthew Stafford’s pass attempts by game: 46, 53, 36, 30, 26, and 22. Detroit has attempted more runs (86) than throws (78) in the last three games, and its next opponent is a Seahawks defense third in passing defense but 24th against the run. The entire receiving trio has taken a hit from this altered approach, but Marvin Jones has especially suffered. He has reeled in just seven receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown over the last three games. Last year’s end-zone machine has tallied four targets in each of the past two contests while failing to record a five-catch game once in 2018. Given these troubling trends and the tough matchup, even treating him as a borderline WR3 felt generous.

Tight End

Undervalued: Trey Burton (CHI vs. NYJ) – ECR: TE8; My Rank: TE6
Trey Burton opened the season with a one-catch, 15-yard letdown. He since ranks third in points per game (11.0) among tight ends behind Travis Kelce (12.3) and Zach Ertz (11.5). (This is excluding Michael Roberts, who has scored three touchdowns in two games.) Four scores have fueled Burton’s success in spite of a middling target rate, but he elicited a season-high 11 targets from Mitchell Trubisky in Week 7. That led him to also shatter personal bests in receptions (nine) and yards (126). It could be too soon to treat this heavy involvement as more than a one-off fluke, but at least we know that potential is present alongside his busy red-zone presence. Chicago has now plastered 107 points in the last three games, so it’s reasonable to expect more than four or five targets a game for the popular preseason breakout pick. While the Jets have tied the Bears with an NFL-low 20 receptions relinquished to tight ends, they have already faced four teams (Lions, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Broncos) without a notable pass-catching threat. He will probably need another touchdown to pay off this ranking, but that’s true of any tight end beyond Kelce and Ertz.

Overvalued: Jared Cook (OAK vs. IND) – ECR: TE6; My Rank: TE10
Whether by coincidence or design, Cook’s TE6 ECR matches his sixth-most fantasy points per game (8.7) at the position. He stockpiled nearly all of them all of them in Weeks 1 and 4, when he respectively posted 180 yards and 110 yards with two scores. He has managed 110 combined yards and no end-zone visits in the other four games. This likely means I’m either way too low or excessively optimistic because of his intermittent upside. The tight end tallied 30 yards while Amari Cooper was targeted twice in his last two games with the Raiders, so I’m not convinced the trade fortifies his rickety floor. He remains a risky, low-end starter with far more upside than Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed, or Greg Olsen. Yet unlike some other experts, I’m currently ranking Rob Gronkowski (TE4) under the belief he plays. I’d also rather ride Burton’s hot hand or play O.J. Howard (TE9) against a Bengals defense that has relinquished an NFL-high 48 receptions to the position.

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