Welcome to this year’s addition of positive and negative regression players! Each week, I’ll go through which hitters and pitchers have performed well (or not so much) to see if there is a meaningful change in the player’s approach and if it’s sustainable.

FanGraphs outlines the sample sizes needed to reach a conclusion on the data we have in a nice, orderly fashion. Hitter data does not stabilize for a minimum of 60 at-bats (strikeout rate), so this week I am exclusively focusing on pitch mix and pitcher velocity.

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Positive Regression Candidates

Trevor Bauer (SP – CLE)
Throughout spring training, Bauer let us know that he was working on his changeup. Not only did he tell us on Twitter, but he even threw only fastballs and changeups in a spring game that yielded positive results. He carried that success into the regular season, striking out nine of 23 Twins batters faced and allowing just one hit (albeit a homer) while throwing the changeup 23% of the time. His changeup ranks fifth on FanGraphs’ pVal chart as of Tuesday, meaning that it is yet another plus pitch in his arsenal. Said another way, there is a metric on the rise of Called Strikes + Whiffs (CSW). This stat tracks exactly what it says — the sum of called strikes and swinging strikes, divided by total pitches. Bauer’s CSW rate in his first start was a near-excellent 33%.

As a result of that substantial changeup increase, he only threw his curve 2% of the time. For comparison’s sake, he threw it over 26% in 2018. Knowing Bauer and his precise approach, that curveball is still good and was further refined in the offseason, but he wants to show big league hitters that they have to keep his changeup in mind. If Bauer can develop his pitch sequencing to incorporate all five (yes, five!) of his pitches, then he will only improve on his breakout 2018. Of course, this is just one start, but I expect Bauer to raise his 30.8% K rate from 2018 if his changeup continues to be this effective.

Collin McHugh (SP/RP – HOU)
McHugh had the opposite of what you’d expect to see in a positive regression candidate — his velocity actually dropped. However, this was expected given the move back to starting full time. His first start of 2019 was filthy, striking out nine Rays over five innings. This can likely be attributed to his pitch mix, as he swapped out a large portion of fastballs for mostly a slider. This change makes sense considering his slider’s 9.5 pVal in 2018 compared to only a 4.6 pVal on his four-seamer. We can all get on board with the change in pitch mix, since his CSW was even better than Bauer’s at 35.8%.

Although there’s a decent amount of swing and miss, the Rays have a solid lineup. They ranked in the middle of the pack in strikeouts last year, and their starting unit is largely unchanged. McHugh should stay in the rotation all year, barring injury, so this change to his pitch mix may be a tangible means to improvement. Plus, the Astros will stretch him out as he gets more comfortable starting, so we can expect quality starts from him down the road.

Drew Pomeranz (SP – SF)
He seems to be forgotten, but let’s go back in time, to a better time, when Pomeranz was a stud. In his first full year with the Red Sox in 2017, he went 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 23.5% K rate. Of course, there was some luck involved (high strand rate, almost double-digit walk rate), but his fastball and curve proved he could hang as an SP3 for a period of time.

He just might get back there. Against the hard-hitting Dodgers at Chavez Ravine, Pomeranz was solid over his five innings of work with six strikeouts. He surrendered six hits, two of which were homers, but for someone not owned in standard (or even deeper) leagues, this is a great first sign for the former fantasy-relevant player. Pomeranz’s fastball velocity was up three ticks from 2018, and he increased his curveball usage from 39% in 2018 to 45.6% in this start. He got whiffs on 10 of his 41 curveballs. Not amazing, but better than 2018.

Of course, it is difficult to rely on a pitcher who has only two decent pitches (see Jose Quintana). But Pomeranz has a few other factors going for him, and you don’t even have to squint that hard to see them. For one, he has no pressure on him as San Francisco’s fifth starter. The Giants, who are not going to compete this year, will likely keep trotting him out if he pitches well. They also can’t expect both Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija to stay healthy all year either. Oh yeah, he’s also pitching in Oracle Park, a pitcher’s paradise. You might say that it’s a bit more forgiving than Fenway. The worst-case scenario is that he pitches so well that he gets traded to a team that needs long-relief help.

Pomeranz has his warts (six-percent drop in first-pitch strikes in that first start, below average 7.8% swinging-strike rate), but he has a proven track record that approaches a top-30 starting pitcher. You can do worse on a dart throw early in the season.

Negative Regression Candidates

Chris Sale (SP – BOS)
Before you go and rip me on this one, remember that these are candidates for regression. I’m not saying that you should try and sell Sale before the bottom falls out. He also started out last season with lower velocity than usual, right where he is now. We knew going into draft season that Sale would be eased into the regular season, given that he pitched just 13 innings in spring training. We also know that the Red Sox want him healthy for October, so we couldn’t expect full-force Sale in his first starts of the season. Now, if this velocity dip persists into May, then we definitely have an issue on our hands. The recently turned 30-year-old still has a few years of greatness left in him, so we can’t overreact to one bad start. Unless that start comes from…

Yu Darvish (SP – CHC)
Seven walks in fewer than three innings. Another Tyler Chatwood, just what the Cubs needed. Darvish could not find his fastball command, simple as that. It might be a good thing that he couldn’t locate the zone, as his fastball velocity dipped from 93.9 mph to 92.1 in his start against the Rangers. Of course, injury is at the forefront of our minds whenever Darvish takes the mound, so this velocity drop is very concerning. Unlike Sale, Darvish’s average fastball velocity was much higher early in 2018. The average velocity on his cutter was down three miles per hour, his two-seamer over two — I can keep going, but you get the picture.

Darvish said his blister is fine, which would be an easier excuse for his early struggles. Maybe he was nervous returning to his former team. Maybe Texas was cold. Heck, I saw Joey Gallo wearing a fleece neckwarmer, so maybe it was cold. Gallo did hit a three-run bomb later in the game, so clearly the ball was traveling just fine. You’d think Darvish is used to 30-degree days in Chicago, but maybe not. Whatever it is, let’s hope he figures it out sooner rather than later.

Others with fastball velocity dips over one mile per hour worth monitoring:

• Robbie Ray (SP – ARI)
• Zack Godley (SP – ARI) – Maybe something was up with the radar gun for this series?
• Charlie Morton (SP – TB)
• Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – BOS)
• J.A. Happ (SP – NYY)
• Tyler Skaggs (SP – LAA)
• Carlos Carrasco (SP – CLE)
• Sonny Gray (SP – CIN)
• Michael Pineda (SP – MIN)

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.